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Cross-validation (CV) is known to provide asymptotically exact tests and confidence intervals for model improvement but only when the model comparison is relatively stable. Surprisingly, we prove that even simple, individually stable models…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-10 Alexandre Bayle , Lucas Janson , Lester Mackey

Bayesian cross-validation (CV) is a popular method for predictive model assessment that is simple to implement and broadly applicable. A wide range of CV schemes is available for time series applications, including generic leave-one-out…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-12 Alex Cooper , Dan Simpson , Lauren Kennedy , Catherine Forbes , Aki Vehtari

Statistical machine learning models should be evaluated and validated before putting to work. Conventional k-fold Monte Carlo Cross-Validation (MCCV) procedure uses a pseudo-random sequence to partition instances into k subsets, which…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-07-05 Liang Guo , Jianya Liu , Ruodan Lu

Structural estimation is an important methodology in empirical economics, and a large class of structural models are estimated through the generalized method of moments (GMM). Traditionally, selection of structural models has been performed…

Econometrics · Economics 2018-07-19 Junpei Komiyama , Hajime Shimao

With machine learning being a popular topic in current computational materials science literature, creating representations for compounds has become common place. These representations are rarely compared, as evaluating their performance -…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-26 Samantha Durdy , Michael Gaultois , Vladimir Gusev , Danushka Bollegala , Matthew J. Rosseinsky

Robust estimators for linear regression require non-convex objective functions to shield against adverse affects of outliers. This non-convexity brings challenges, particularly when combined with penalization in high-dimensional settings.…

Computation · Statistics 2025-08-08 David Kepplinger , Siqi Wei

Used to estimate the risk of an estimator or to perform model selection, cross-validation is a widespread strategy because of its simplicity and its apparent universality. Many results exist on the model selection performances of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-02-01 Sylvain Arlot , Alain Celisse

In many applications, we have access to the complete dataset but are only interested in the prediction of a particular region of predictor variables. A standard approach is to find the globally best modeling method from a set of candidate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-21 Jiawei Zhang , Jie Ding , Yuhong Yang

Machine learning technologies have been used in a wide range of practical systems. In practical situations, it is natural to expect the input-output pairs of a machine learning model to satisfy some requirements. However, it is difficult to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-12 Masaaki Nishino , Kengo Nakamura , Norihito Yasuda

State-of-the-art automated machine learning systems for tabular data often employ cross-validation; ensuring that measured performances generalize to unseen data, or that subsequent ensembling does not overfit. However, using k-fold…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-05 Edward Bergman , Lennart Purucker , Frank Hutter

Cross-validation is the standard approach for tuning parameter selection in many non-parametric regression problems. However its use is less common in change-point regression, perhaps as its prediction error-based criterion may appear to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-13 Florian Pein , Rajen D. Shah

One of the common goals of time series analysis is to use the observed series to inform predictions for future observations. In the absence of any actual new data to predict, cross-validation can be used to estimate a model's future…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-02 Paul-Christian Bürkner , Jonah Gabry , Aki Vehtari

This paper introduces e-fold cross-validation, an energy-efficient alternative to k-fold cross-validation. It dynamically adjusts the number of folds based on a stopping criterion. The criterion checks after each fold whether the standard…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-29 Christopher Mahlich , Tobias Vente , Joeran Beel

The Maximum Likelihood (ML) and Cross Validation (CV) methods for estimating covariance hyper-parameters are compared, in the context of Kriging with a misspecified covariance structure. A two-step approach is used. First, the case of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-06-03 François Bachoc

Traditionally, machine learning-based clinical prediction models have been trained and evaluated on patient data from a single source, such as a hospital. Cross-validation methods can be used to estimate the accuracy of such models on new…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-24 Tuija Leinonen , David Wong , Antti Vasankari , Ali Wahab , Ramesh Nadarajah , Matti Kaisti , Antti Airola

Despite ongoing theoretical research on cross-validation (CV), many theoretical questions remain widely open. This motivates our investigation into how properties of algorithm-distribution pairs can affect the choice for the number of folds…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-09 Ido Nachum , Rüdiger Urbanke , Thomas Weinberger

We study estimator selection and hyper-parameter tuning in off-policy evaluation. Although cross-validation is the most popular method for model selection in supervised learning, off-policy evaluation relies mostly on theory, which provides…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-23 Matej Cief , Branislav Kveton , Michal Kompan

Evaluating models fit to data with internal spatial structure requires specific cross-validation (CV) approaches, because randomly selecting assessment data may produce assessment sets that are not truly independent of data used to train…

Computation · Statistics 2023-03-14 Michael J Mahoney , Lucas K Johnson , Julia Silge , Hannah Frick , Max Kuhn , Colin M Beier

Cross-validation is the workhorse of modern applied statistics and machine learning, as it provides a principled framework for selecting the model that maximizes generalization performance. In this paper, we show that the cross-validation…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-05-21 Shane Barratt , Rishi Sharma

We investigate leave-one-out cross validation (CV) as a determinator of the weight of the penalty term in the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO). First, on the basis of the message passing algorithm and a perturbative…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2016-06-22 Tomoyuki Obuchi , Yoshiyuki Kabashima