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Faithful uncertainty quantification (UQ) is paramount in high stakes climate prediction. Deep ensembles, or ensembles of probabilistic neural networks, are state of the art for UQ in machine learning (ML) and are growing increasingly…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-03-24 Devin M. McAfee , Elizabeth A. Barnes

Scientific measurements are often bottlenecked by suboptimal conditions, whether that be noise, incomplete spatial coverage, or limited resolution, rendering accurate field reconstruction a difficult task. We introduce LatentPDE, a latent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Valerie Tsao , Nathaniel Chaney , Manolis Veveakis

Climate hazards can cause major disasters when they occur simultaneously as compound hazards. To understand the distribution of climate risk and inform adaptation policies, scientists need to simulate a large number of physically realistic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-01 Alison Peard , Jim Hall

We consider the application of deep generative models in propagating uncertainty through complex physical systems. Specifically, we put forth an implicit variational inference formulation that constrains the generative model output to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-12-11 Yibo Yang , Paris Perdikaris

We introduce Efficient Motion Diffusion Model (EMDM) for fast and high-quality human motion generation. Current state-of-the-art generative diffusion models have produced impressive results but struggle to achieve fast generation without…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-11-26 Wenyang Zhou , Zhiyang Dou , Zeyu Cao , Zhouyingcheng Liao , Jingbo Wang , Wenjia Wang , Yuan Liu , Taku Komura , Wenping Wang , Lingjie Liu

A generative diffusion model is used to produce probabilistic ensembles of precipitation intensity maps at the 1-hour 5-km resolution. The generation is conditioned on infrared and microwave radiometric measurements from the GOES and DMSP…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-09-26 Clement Guilloteau , Gavin Kerrigan , Kai Nelson , Giosue Migliorini , Padhraic Smyth , Runze Li , Efi Foufoula-Georgiou

Generative models such as denoising diffusion models are quickly advancing their ability to approximate highly complex data distributions. They are also increasingly leveraged in scientific machine learning, where samples from the implied…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-14 Jan-Hendrik Bastek , WaiChing Sun , Dennis M. Kochmann

High-quality 3D assets for traffic participants are critical for multi-sensor simulation, which is essential for the safe end-to-end development of autonomy. Building assets from in-the-wild data is key for diversity and realism, but…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Ze Yang , Jingkang Wang , Haowei Zhang , Sivabalan Manivasagam , Yun Chen , Raquel Urtasun

Climate projections have uncertainties related to components of the climate system and their interactions. A typical approach to quantifying these uncertainties is to use climate models to create ensembles of repeated simulations under…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-01-29 Graham Clyne , Guillaume Couairon , Guillaume Gastineau , Claire Monteleoni , Anastase Charantonis

Epistemic uncertainty is crucial for safety-critical applications and data acquisition tasks. Yet, we find an important phenomenon in deep learning models: an epistemic uncertainty collapse as model complexity increases, challenging the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-27 Andreas Kirsch

Latent diffusion models (LDMs) exhibit an impressive ability to produce realistic images, yet the inner workings of these models remain mysterious. Even when trained purely on images without explicit depth information, they typically output…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-11-07 Yida Chen , Fernanda Viégas , Martin Wattenberg

Diffusion models offer stable training and state-of-the-art performance for deep generative modeling tasks. Here, we consider their use in the context of multivariate subsurface modeling and probabilistic inversion. We first demonstrate…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-01-28 Roberto Miele , Niklas Linde

We introduce generative models for accelerating simulations of complex systems through learning and evolving their effective dynamics. In the proposed Generative Learning of Effective Dynamics (G-LED), instances of high dimensional data are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-28 Han Gao , Sebastian Kaltenbach , Petros Koumoutsakos

Uncertainty quantification is a critical aspect of reinforcement learning and deep learning, with numerous applications ranging from efficient exploration and stable offline reinforcement learning to outlier detection in medical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-27 Moritz A. Zanger , Pascal R. Van der Vaart , Wendelin Böhmer , Matthijs T. J. Spaan

The ability to accurately model random fields plays a critical role in science and engineering for problems involving uncertain, spatially-varying quantities such as heterogeneous material properties and turbulent flows. Deep generative…

Large-scale numerical simulations often produce high-dimensional gridded data that is challenging to process for downstream applications. A prime example is numerical weather prediction, where atmospheric processes are modeled using…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-10 Jieyu Chen , Kevin Höhlein , Sebastian Lerch

Deep neural networks are often ignorant about what they do not know and overconfident when they make uninformed predictions. Some recent approaches quantify classification uncertainty directly by training the model to output high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-09 Murat Sensoy , Lance Kaplan , Federico Cerutti , Maryam Saleki

We provide an overview of the diffusion model as a method to generate new samples. Generative models have been recently adopted for tasks such as art generation (Stable Diffusion, Dall-E) and text generation (ChatGPT). Diffusion models in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-13 Justin Le

Ensemble weather forecasts enable a measure of uncertainty to be attached to each forecast, by computing the ensemble's spread. However, generating an ensemble with a good spread-error relationship is far from trivial, and a wide range of…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-01-05 Sebastian Scher , Gabriele Messori

We present a framework for video modeling based on denoising diffusion probabilistic models that produces long-duration video completions in a variety of realistic environments. We introduce a generative model that can at test-time sample…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-12-19 William Harvey , Saeid Naderiparizi , Vaden Masrani , Christian Weilbach , Frank Wood