Related papers: Policy Changes and Growth Slowdown: Assessing the …
This paper assesses the global employment and trade effects of renewed tariff escalation following the reintroduction of the United States' America First strategy in 2025. Using a multiregional input-output (MRIO) framework integrated with…
I study the impact of industrial policies on industrial development by considering an important episode during the East Asian miracle: South Korea's heavy and chemical industry (HCI) drive, 1973--1979. Based on newly assembled data, I use…
We show that a simple and intuitive three-parameter equation fits remarkably well the evolution of the gross domestic product (GDP) in current and constant dollars of many countries during times of recession and recovery. We then argue that…
Most of the analytical techniques used in the business cycle synchronisation literature rely upon the estimation of an empirical correlation matrix of time series data of macroeconomic aggregates, real GDP usually being the key variable.…
Once carbon emission neutrality and other sustainability goals have been achieved, a widespread assumption is that economic growth at current rates can be sustained beyond the 21st century. However, even if we achieve these goals, this…
In the General Theory, Keynes remarked that the economy's state depends on expectations, and that these expectations can be subject to sudden swings. In this work, we develop a multiple equilibria behavioural business cycle model that can…
The traditional and most common view of economists on the issue of (bad) uncertainty and its effects has been one of partial equilibrium. When the topic is approached from a macroeconomic perspective, the most frequent has been the…
An acceleration in the growth of communications bandwidth in use and a rapid reduction in bandwidth prices have not accompanied the U.S. economy's strong performance in the second half of the 1990s. Overall U.S. bandwidth in use has grown…
Borrowing constraints are a key component of modern international macroeconomic models. The analysis of Emerging Markets (EM) economies generally assumes collateral borrowing constraints, i.e., firms access to debt is constrained by the…
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a massive economic shock across the world due to business interruptions and shutdowns from social-distancing measures. To evaluate the socio-economic impact of COVID-19 on individuals, a micro-economic model…
I overview data on several radical societal changes started circa 2015: accelerated decline in fertility rate, backsliding of democracy, rise of populist politics and arrest in generational renewal of political leadership. I conjecture that…
The existing theorization of development economics and transition economics is probably inadequate and perhaps even flawed to accurately explain and analyze a dual economic system such as that in China. China is a country in the transition…
This paper evaluates the impact of the pandemic and enforcement at the US and Mexican borders on the emigration of Guatemalans during 2017-2020. During this period, the number of crossings from Guatemala fell by 10%, according to the Survey…
This study investigates the long-term economic impact of sea-level rise (SLR) on coastal regions in Europe, focusing on Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Using a novel dataset covering regional SLR and economic growth from 1900 to 2020, we…
This paper examines the impact of US monetary policy tightening on emerging markets, distinguishing between direct and indirect spillover effects using the global vector autoregression with stochastic volatility covering 32 countries. The…
Industrial policy has returned to the centre of economic governance, particularly in the high-tech sectors where positive network externalities in demand make market dominance self-reinforcing. This paper studies the welfare effects of an…
We analyze and develop a quantitative model describing the evolution of personal income distribution, PID, for males and females in the U.S. between 1930 and 2014. The overall microeconomic model, which we introduced ten years ago,…
At the end of 2019, an outbreak of a novel coronavirus was reported in China, leading to the COVID-19 pandemic. In Spain, the first cases were detected in late January 2020, and by mid-March, infections had surpassed 5,000. On March the…
Many policies in the US are determined locally, e.g., at the county-level. Local policy regimes provide flexibility between regions, but may become less effective in the presence of geographic spillovers, where populations circumvent local…
GDP of China is about 11 trillion dollars and GDP of the United States is about 18 trillion dollars. Suppose that we know for the coming years, economy of the US will experience a real growth rate equal to \%3 and economy of China will…