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Methods for split conformal prediction leverage calibration samples to transform any prediction rule into a set-prediction rule that complies with a target coverage probability. Existing methods provide remarkably strong performance…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-15 Santiago Mazuelas

We study the consistency of sample mean-variance portfolios of arbitrarily high dimension that are based on Bayesian or shrinkage estimation of the input parameters as well as weighted sampling. In an asymptotic setting where the number of…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2015-05-30 Francisco Rubio , Xavier Mestre , Daniel P. Palomar

In systematic reviews and meta-analysis, researchers often pool the results of the sample mean and standard deviation from a set of similar clinical trials. A number of the trials, however, reported the study using the median, the minimum…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-06 Xiang Wan , Wenqian Wang , Jiming Liu , Tiejun Tong

A prediction interval covers a future observation from a random process in repeated sampling, and is typically constructed by identifying a pivotal quantity that is also an ancillary statistic. Analogously, a tolerance interval covers a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-19 Geoffrey S Johnson

We consider the problem of hypothesis testing for discrete distributions. In the standard model, where we have sample access to an underlying distribution $p$, extensive research has established optimal bounds for uniformity testing,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-03 Maryam Aliakbarpour , Piotr Indyk , Ronitt Rubinfeld , Sandeep Silwal

It is well known that estimating the expectation of any given bounded random variable with values in $[-B, B]$ has a sample complexity of $\mathrm{O}(B^2/\epsilon^2)$ that is independent of the underlying probability measure. We show that…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-04-29 Yan Li

Adaptive experiments use preliminary analyses of the data to inform further course of action and are commonly used in many disciplines including medical and social sciences. Because the null hypothesis and experimental design are…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-26 Tobias Freidling , Qingyuan Zhao , Zijun Gao

Running machine learning algorithms on large and rapidly growing volumes of data is often computationally expensive, one common trick to reduce the size of a data set, and thus reduce the computational cost of machine learning algorithms,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-25 Shaojie Tang , Jing Yuan

Decision making or scientific discovery pipelines such as job hiring and drug discovery often involve multiple stages: before any resource-intensive step, there is often an initial screening that uses predictions from a machine learning…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-30 Ying Jin , Emmanuel J. Candès

Importance sampling approximates expectations with respect to a target measure by using samples from a proposal measure. The performance of the method over large classes of test functions depends heavily on the closeness between both…

Computation · Statistics 2016-09-01 Daniel Sanz-Alonso

We derive a new class of statistical tests for generalized linear models based on thresholding point estimators. These tests can be employed whether the model includes more parameters than observations or not. For linear models, our tests…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-03-14 Sylvain Sardy , Caroline Giacobino , Jairo Diaz-Rodriguez

Diffusion models have demonstrated state-of-the-art performance across vision, language, and scientific domains. Despite their empirical success, prior theoretical analyses of the sample complexity suffer from poor scaling with input data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-14 Mudit Gaur , Prashant Trivedi , Sasidhar Kunapuli , Amrit Singh Bedi , Vaneet Aggarwal

The probabilities of causation are commonly used to solve decision-making problems. Tian and Pearl derived sharp bounds for the probability of necessity and sufficiency (PNS), the probability of sufficiency (PS), and the probability of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-10-12 Ang Li , Ruirui Mao , Judea Pearl

We use p-values as a discrepancy criterion for identifying the threshold value at which a regression function takes off from its baseline value -- a problem that is motivated by applications in omics experiments, systems engineering,…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-08-26 Bodhisattva Sen , Moulinath Banerjee , George Michialidis

We use p-values to identify the threshold level at which a regression function takes off from its baseline value, a problem motivated by applications in toxicological and pharmacological dose-response studies and environmental statistics.…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-06-13 Atul Mallik , Bodhisattva Sen , Moulinath Banerjee , George Michailidis

Background: Determining sample sizes for metabolomic experiments is important but due to the complexity of these experiments, there are currently no standard methods for sample size estimation in metabolomics. Since pilot studies are rarely…

Composite binary endpoints are increasingly used as primary endpoints in clinical trials. When designing a trial, it is crucial to determine the appropriate sample size for testing the statistical differences between treatment groups for…

Applications · Statistics 2019-01-15 Marta Bofill Roig , Guadalupe Gómez Melis

Distance queries are a basic tool in data analysis. They are used for detection and localization of change for the purpose of anomaly detection, monitoring, or planning. Distance queries are particularly useful when data sets such as…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2015-03-20 Edith Cohen

Determining an appropriate sample size is a critical element of study design, and the method used to determine it should be consistent with the planned analysis. When the planned analysis involves Bayes factor hypothesis testing, the sample…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-14 Samuel Pawel , Leonhard Held

In the era of Model-as-a-Service, organizations increasingly rely on third-party AI models for rapid deployment. However, the dynamic nature of emerging AI applications, the continual introduction of new datasets, and the growing number of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-10 Zihan Zhu , Yanqiu Wu , Qiongkai Xu