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Calibrated probability outputs of trained classifiers are increasingly used as inputs to downstream regression estimands such as effects, prevalences, or disparities for a latent group observed only on a small labelled subset. A standard…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-14 Marcell T. Kurbucz

In many settings, robust data analysis involves computational methods for uncertainty quantification and statistical inference. To design frequentist studies that leverage robust analysis methods, suitable sample sizes to achieve desired…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-19 Luke Hagar , Andrew J. Martin

We propose a new estimator for the high-dimensional linear regression model with observation error in the design where the number of coefficients is potentially larger than the sample size. The main novelty of our procedure is that the…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-09 Alexandre Belloni , Abhishek Kaul , Mathieu Rosenbaum

While conformal predictors reap the benefits of rigorous statistical guarantees on their error frequency, the size of their corresponding prediction sets is critical to their practical utility. Unfortunately, there is currently a lack of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-12 Guneet S. Dhillon , George Deligiannidis , Tom Rainforth

Restricted mean survival time (RMST) is gaining attention as a measure to quantify the treatment effect on survival outcomes in randomized clinical trials. Several methods to determine sample size based on the RMST-based tests have been…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-19 Satoshi Hattori , Hajime Uno

For randomized controlled trials to be conclusive, it is important to set the target sample size accurately at the design stage. Comparing two normal populations, the sample size calculation requires specification of the variance other than…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-04 Hirotada Maeda , Satoshi Hattori , Tim Friede

We derive adjusted signed likelihood ratio statistics for a general class of extreme value regression models. The adjustments reduce the error in the standard normal approximation to the distribution of the signed likelihood ratio…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-05-26 Silvia L. P. Ferrari , Eliane C. Pinheiro

In machine learning, the selection of a promising model from a potentially large number of competing models and the assessment of its generalization performance are critical tasks that need careful consideration. Typically, model selection…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-06 Pascal Rink , Werner Brannath

While there exists a large amount of literature on the general challenges of and best practices for trustworthy online A/B testing, there are limited studies on sample size estimation, which plays a crucial role in trustworthy and efficient…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-21 Jing Zhou , Jiannan Lu , Anas Shallah

Machine learning applications, especially in the fields of me\-di\-cine and social sciences, are slowly being subjected to increasing scrutiny. Similarly to sample size planning performed in clinical and social studies, lawmakers and…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-16 Antoni Klorek , Karol Roszak , Izabela Szczech , Dariusz Brzezinski

Clinical prediction models are estimated using a sample of limited size from the target population, leading to uncertainty in predictions, even when the model is correctly specified. Generally, not all patient profiles are observed…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-09 Doranne Thomassen , Saskia le Cessie , Hans van Houwelingen , Ewout Steyerberg

Objective: Provide guidance on sample size considerations for developing predictive models by empirically establishing the adequate sample size, which balances the competing objectives of improving model performance and reducing model…

Applications · Statistics 2024-07-25 Luis H. John , Jan A. Kors , Jenna M. Reps , Patrick B. Ryan , Peter R. Rijnbeek

Multinomial logistic regression models allow one to predict the risk of a categorical outcome with more than 2 categories. When developing such a model, researchers should ensure the number of participants (n) is appropriate relative to the…

The development of a new diagnostic test ideally follows a sequence of stages which, amongst other aims, evaluate technical performance. This includes an analytical validity study, a diagnostic accuracy study and an interventional clinical…

We consider the problem of fitting the parameters of a high-dimensional linear regression model. In the regime where the number of parameters $p$ is comparable to or exceeds the sample size $n$, a successful approach uses an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-11-04 Adel Javanmard , Andrea Montanari

Composite endpoints are increasingly used in clinical trials to capture treatment effects across multiple or hierarchically ordered outcomes. Although inference procedures based on win statistics, such as the win ratio, win odds, and net…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-28 Xi Fang , Zhiqiang Cao , Fan Li

When performing supervised learning with the model selected using validation error from sample splitting and cross validation, the minimum value of the validation error can be biased downward. We propose two simple methods that use the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-13 Leying Guan

In this paper, we address the probabilistic error quantification of a general class of prediction methods. We consider a given prediction model and show how to obtain, through a sample-based approach, a probabilistic upper bound on the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-07 Victor Mirasierra , Martina Mammarella , Fabrizio Dabbene , Teodoro Alamo

We give improved constants for data dependent and variance sensitive confidence bounds, called empirical Bernstein bounds, and extend these inequalities to hold uniformly over classes of functionswhose growth function is polynomial in the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2009-07-23 Andreas Maurer , Massimiliano Pontil

Sample size derivation is a crucial element of the planning phase of any confirmatory trial. A sample size is typically derived based on constraints on the maximal acceptable type I error rate and a minimal desired power. Here, power…