Related papers: Temperature in the Iberian Peninsula: Trend, seaso…
How strong are quantitative contributions of the key natural modes of climate variability and the anthropogenic factor characterized by the changes of the radiative forcing of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to the trends of the surface…
We present a new dynamical approach for measuring the temperature of a Hamiltonian dynamical system in the micro canonical ensemble of thermodynamics. We show that under the hypothesis of ergodicity the temperature can be computed as a…
One of the main challenges in identifying structural changes in stochastic processes is to carry out analysis for time series with dependency structure in a computationally tractable way. Another challenge is that the number of true change…
How regional heterogeneity in social and cultural processes drive--and respond to--climate dynamics is little studied. Here we present a coupled social-climate model stratified across five world regions and parameterized with geophysical,…
There is an ongoing debate in the literature about whether the present global warming is increasing local and global temperature variability. The central methodological issues of this debate relate to the proper treatment of normalised…
Assessing the consistency between short-term global temperature trends in observations and climate model projections is a challenging problem. While climate models capture many processes governing short-term climate fluctuations, they are…
The last decade has seen the success of stochastic parameterizations in short-term, medium-range and seasonal forecasts: operational weather centers now routinely use stochastic parameterization schemes to better represent model inadequacy…
The problem of estimating trend and seasonal variation in time-series data has been studied over several decades, although mostly using single time series. This paper studies the problem of estimating these components from functional data,…
We develop and compare model-error representation schemes derived from data assimilation increments and nudging tendencies in multi-decadal simulations of the community atmosphere model, version 6. Each scheme applies a bias correction…
The total ionospheric content (TEC) over the Iberian Peninsula was studied using data from two locations obtained both by GNSS receivers and an ionosonde. The principal component analysis applied to the TEC data allowed us to extract two…
This paper presents a statistical analysis of air temperature data from 32 stations in Italy and the UK up to 2000 m above sea level, from 2002 to 2021. The data came from both highland and lowland areas, in order to evaluate both the…
This study explores the impacts of climate change on the hydrology of the headwater areas of the Duero River Basin, the largest basin of the Iberian Peninsula. To this end, an ensemble of 18 Euro-CORDEX model experiments was gathered for…
Earth's temperature variability can be partitioned into internal and externally-forced components. Yet, underlying mechanisms and their relative contributions remain insufficiently understood, especially on decadal to centennial timescales.…
Seasonality (or periodicity) and trend are features describing an observed sequence, and extracting these features is an important issue in many scientific fields. However, it is not an easy task for existing methods to analyze…
Radiative-conductive systems are intrinsically nonlinear due to the quartic temperature dependence of thermal radiation. Under fixed total heating power, convexity arguments imply that nonuniform temperature distributions radiate more…
This study examines the dynamics of the urban heat island (UHI) effect by conducting a comparative analysis of air temperature hysteresis patterns in Paris and Madrid, two major European cities with distinct climatic and urban…
Spatiotemporal simulation of minimum and maximum temperature is a fundamental requirement for climate impact studies and hydrological or agricultural models. Particularly over regions with variable orography, these simulations are difficult…
Given uncertainties in physical theory and numerical climate simulations, the historical temperature record is often used as a source of empirical information about climate change. Many historical trend analyses appear to deemphasize…
Projections of future climate change rely heavily on climate models, and combining climate models through a multi-model ensemble is both more accurate than a single climate model and valuable for uncertainty quantification. However,…
We introduce an exactly solvable model for glassy dynamics with many relaxational modes, each one characterized by a different relaxational time-scale. Analytical solution of the aging dynamics at low temperatures shows that a…