Related papers: Nowcasting Earthquakes with QuakeGPT: Methods and …
Earthquake nowcasting has been proposed as a means of tracking the change in large earthquake potential in a seismically active area. The method was developed using observable seismic data, in which probabilities of future large earthquakes…
We review previous approaches to nowcasting earthquakes and introduce new approaches based on deep learning using three distinct models based on recurrent neural networks and transformers. We discuss different choices for observables and…
Precise real time estimates of earthquake magnitude and location are essential for early warning and rapid response. While recently multiple deep learning approaches for fast assessment of earthquakes have been proposed, they usually rely…
The scientific process of earthquake forecasting involves estimating the probability and intensity of earthquakes in a specific area within a certain timeframe, based on seismic activity laws and observational data. Epidemic-Type Aftershock…
A prominent feature of earthquakes is their empirical laws including memory (clustering) in time and space. Several earthquake forecasting models, like the EpidemicType Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, were developed based on earthquake…
Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models are point processes that have found prominence in seismological modeling. Its success has led to the development of a number of different versions of the ETAS model. Among these extensions is…
The Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model is one of the most widely-used approaches to seismic forecasting. However most studies of ETAS use point estimates for the model parameters, which ignores the inherent uncertainty that…
Point processes have been dominant in modeling the evolution of seismicity for decades, with the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model being most popular. Recent advances in machine learning have constructed highly flexible point…
Advancing the capabilities of earthquake nowcasting, the real-time forecasting of seismic activities remains a crucial and enduring objective aimed at reducing casualties. This multifaceted challenge has recently gained attention within the…
Geoscience and seismology have utilized the most advanced technologies and equipment to monitor seismic events globally from the past few decades. With the enormous amount of data, modern GPU-powered deep learning presents a promising…
Earthquakes are one of the most devastating natural disasters that plague society. A skilled, reliable earthquake forecasting remains the ultimate goal for seismologists. Using the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and conditional…
Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) is an emerging technology for earthquake monitoring and subsurface imaging. The recorded seismic signals by DAS have several distinct characteristics, such as unknown coupling effects, strong anthropogenic…
For decades, classical point process models, such as the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, have been widely used for forecasting the event times and locations of earthquakes. Recent advances have led to Neural Point Processes…
Seismic waveforms contain rich information about earthquake processes, making effective data analysis crucial for earthquake monitoring, source characterization, and seismic hazard assessment. With rapid developments in deep learning, the…
In meteorology, engineering and computer sciences, data assimilation is routinely employed as the optimal way to combine noisy observations with prior model information for obtaining better estimates of a state, and thus better forecasts,…
Rocks under stress deform by creep mechanisms that include formation and slip on small-scale internal cracks. Intragranular cracks and slip along grain contacts release energy as elastic waves termed acoustic emissions (AE). AEs are thought…
We propose two methods to calibrate the parameters of the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model based on expectation maximization (EM) while accounting for temporal variation of catalog completeness. The first method allows for…
A 'nowcast' is a type of weather forecast which makes predictions in the very short term, typically less than two hours - a period in which traditional numerical weather prediction can be limited. This type of weather prediction has…
The objective of this study is to develop and test a novel structured deep-learning modeling framework for urban flood nowcasting by integrating physics-based and human-sensed features. We present a new computational modeling framework…
Accurate and timely estimation of precipitation is critical for issuing hazard warnings (e.g., for flash floods or landslides). Current remotely sensed precipitation products have a few hours of latency, associated with the acquisition and…