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Earthquakes can be detected by matching spatial patterns or phase properties from 1-D seismic waves. Current earthquake detection methods, such as waveform correlation and template matching, have difficulty detecting anomalous earthquakes…

Geophysics · Physics 2019-01-30 Zheng Zhou , Youzuo Lin , Zhongping Zhang , Yue Wu , Paul Johnson

Many point process models have been proposed for describing and forecasting earthquake occurrences in seismically active zones such as California, but the problem of how best to compare and evaluate the goodness of fit of such models…

Applications · Statistics 2015-01-27 Andrew Bray , Ka Wong , Christopher D. Barr , Frederic Paik Schoenberg

Earthquake monitoring workflows are designed to detect earthquake signals and to determine source characteristics from continuous waveform data. Recent developments in deep learning seismology have been used to improve tasks within…

Earthquake early warning systems play crucial roles in reducing the risk of seismic disasters. Previously, the dominant modeling system was the single-station models. Such models digest signal data received at a given station and predict…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-25 Yu-Ming Huang , Kuan-Yu Chen , Wen-Wei Lin , Da-Yi Chen

Earthquake monitoring by seismic networks typically involves a workflow consisting of phase detection/picking, association, and location tasks. In recent years, the accuracy of these individual stages has been improved through the use of…

The ETAS model is widely employed to model the spatio-temporal distribution of earthquakes, generally using spatially invariant parameters. We propose an efficient method for the estimation of spatially varying parameters, using the…

Geophysics · Physics 2017-06-28 Shyam Nandan , Guy Ouillon , Stefan Wiemer , Didier Sornette

Deep learning techniques for processing large and complex datasets have unlocked new opportunities for fast and reliable earthquake analysis using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data. This work presents a deep learning model,…

Reliable earthquake forecasting methods have long been sought after, and so the rise of modern data science techniques raises a new question: does deep learning have the potential to learn this pattern? In this study, we leverage the large…

Geophysics · Physics 2023-07-06 Jonas Koehler , Wei Li , Johannes Faber , Georg Ruempker , Nishtha Srivastava

Performing Bayesian inference for the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model of earthquakes typically requires MCMC sampling using the likelihood function or estimating the latent branching structure. These tasks have computational…

Applications · Statistics 2024-05-29 Samuel Stockman , Daniel J. Lawson , Maximilian J. Werner

The Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model is widely used to model seismic sequences and underpins Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF). However, it remains challenging to assess the reliability of inverted ETAS parameters for a…

Applications · Statistics 2022-12-16 Mark Naylor , Francesco Serafini , Finn Lindgren , Ian Main

Deep learning enhances earthquake monitoring capabilities by mining seismic waveforms directly. However, current neural networks, trained within specific areas, face challenges in generalizing to diverse regions. Here, we employ a data…

Geophysics · Physics 2024-10-04 Xiong Zhang , Miao Zhang

Immediately following a disaster event, such as an earthquake, estimates of the damage extent play a key role in informing the coordination of response and recovery efforts. We develop a novel impact estimation tool that leverages a…

Applications · Statistics 2025-01-15 Max Anderson Loake , Hamish Patten , David Steinsaltz

We propose a new method to test the effectiveness of a spatial point process forecast based on a log-likelihood score for predicted point density and the information gain for events that actually occurred in the test period. The method…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2010-11-24 Yan Y. Kagan

No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months). However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments for earthquake risk. These are primarily based on the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-01-29 James R. Holliday , Kazuyoshi Z. Nanjo , Kristy F. Tiampo , John B. Rundle , Donald L. Turcotte

Climate change has led to an increase in frequency of extreme weather events. Early warning systems can prevent disasters and loss of life. Managing such events remain a challenge for both public and private institutions. Precipitation…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-12-13 Ajitabh Kumar

Forecasting the full distribution of the number of earthquakes is revealed to be inherently superior to forecasting their mean. Forecasting the full distribution of earthquake numbers is also shown to yield robust projections in the…

Geophysics · Physics 2019-03-19 Shyam Nandan , Guy Ouillon , Didier Sornette , Stefan Wiemer

Earthquake early warning systems are crucial for protecting areas that are subject to these natural disasters. An essential part of these systems is the detection procedure. Traditionally these systems work with seismograph data, but high…

Seismograms, the fundamental seismic records, have revolutionized earthquake research and monitoring. Recent advancements in deep learning have further enhanced seismic signal processing, leading to even more precise and effective…

Geophysics · Physics 2024-03-08 Sen Li , Xu Yang , Anye Cao , Changbin Wang , Yaoqi Liu , Yapeng Liu , Qiang Niu

The Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequences (ETAS) model and its variants effectively capture the space-time clustering of seismicity, setting the standard for earthquake forecasting. Accurate unbiased ETAS calibration is thus crucial. But we…

Geophysics · Physics 2025-06-23 Jiawei Li , Didier Sornette , Zhongliang Wu , Jiancang Zhuang , Changsheng Jiang

Self-exciting Hawkes processes are used to model events which cluster in time and space, and have been widely studied in seismology under the name of the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. In the ETAS framework, the occurrence…

Computation · Statistics 2020-02-06 Aleksandar A. Kolev , Gordon J. Ross