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Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms represent a suite of robust computational methodologies utilized for state estimation and parameter inference within dynamical systems, particularly in real-time or online environments where data…

In many problems, complex non-Gaussian and/or nonlinear models are required to accurately describe a physical system of interest. In such cases, Monte Carlo algorithms are remarkably flexible and extremely powerful approaches to solve such…

We implement gradient-based variational inference routines for Wishart and inverse Wishart processes, which we apply as Bayesian models for the dynamic, heteroskedastic covariance matrix of a multivariate time series. The Wishart and…

Many recent advances in large scale probabilistic inference rely on variational methods. The success of variational approaches depends on (i) formulating a flexible parametric family of distributions, and (ii) optimizing the parameters to…

A core problem in statistics and probabilistic machine learning is to compute probability distributions and expectations. This is the fundamental problem of Bayesian statistics and machine learning, which frames all inference as…

Sequential Monte Carlo methods are a powerful framework for approximating the posterior distribution of a state variable in a sequential manner. They provide an attractive way of analyzing dynamic systems in real-time, taking into account…

Symbolic regression is a powerful tool for discovering governing equations directly from data, but its sensitivity to noise hinders its broader application. This paper introduces a Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) framework for Bayesian…

The problem of optimising functions with intractable gradients frequently arise in machine learning and statistics, ranging from maximum marginal likelihood estimation procedures to fine-tuning of generative models. Stochastic approximation…

This paper introduces methodology for performing Bayesian inference sequentially on a sequence of posteriors on spaces of different dimensions. We show how this may be achieved through the use of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers (Del…

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), or particle filtering, is widely used in nonlinear state-space systems, but its performance often suffers from poorly approximated proposal and state-transition distributions. This work introduces a…

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are a widely used set of computational tools for inference in non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. We propose a new SMC algorithm to compute the expectation of additive functionals recursively.…

Recently there have been exciting developments in Monte Carlo methods, with the development of new MCMC and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms which are based on continuous-time, rather than discrete-time, Markov processes. This has…

We propose a novel class of Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms, appropriate for inference in probabilistic graphical models. This class of algorithms adopts a divide-and-conquer approach based upon an auxiliary tree-structured…

In this article we consider importance sampling (IS) and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods in the context of 1-dimensional random walks with absorbing barriers. In particular, we develop a very precise variance analysis for several IS…

The advantages of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) are exploited to develop parameter estimation and model selection methods for GARCH (Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) style models. It provides an alternative method…

Models which include domain constraints occur in myriad contexts such as econometrics, genomics, and environmetrics, though simulating from constrained distributions can be computationally expensive. In particular, repeated sampling from…

We analyze the accuracy and sample complexity of variational Monte Carlo approaches to simulate the dynamics of many-body quantum systems classically. By systematically studying the relevant stochastic estimators, we are able to: (i) prove…

Many machine learning problems involve Monte Carlo gradient estimators. As a prominent example, we focus on Monte Carlo variational inference (MCVI) in this paper. The performance of MCVI crucially depends on the variance of its stochastic…

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are not only a popular tool in the analysis of state space models, but offer an alternative to MCMC in situations where Bayesian inference must proceed via simulation. This paper introduces a new SMC…

The Dynamic Monte Carlo (DMC) method is an established molecular simulation technique for the analysis of the dynamics in colloidal suspensions. An excellent alternative to Brownian Dynamics or Molecular Dynamics simulation, DMC is…