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Probabilistic inference in the hybrid domain, i.e. inference over discrete-continuous domains, requires tackling two well known #P-hard problems 1)~weighted model counting (WMC) over discrete variables and 2)~integration over continuous…
The estimation of the covariance matrix is an initial step in many multivariate statistical methods such as principal components analysis and factor analysis, but in many practical applications the dimensionality of the sample space is…
We investigate Monte Carlo based algorithms for solving stochastic control problems with probabilistic constraints. Our motivation comes from microgrid management, where the controller tries to optimally dispatch a diesel generator while…
Nonparametric varying coefficient (NVC) models are useful for modeling time-varying effects on responses that are measured repeatedly for the same subjects. When the number of covariates is moderate or large, it is desirable to perform…
In this paper, we address technical difficulties that arise when applying Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to hierarchical models designed to perform clustering in the space of latent parameters of subject-wise generative models.…
We develop a method to combine Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and variational inference (VI), leveraging the advantages of both inference approaches. Specifically, we improve the variational distribution by running a few MCMC steps. To…
An appropriate iterative scheme for the minimization of the energy, based on the variational Monte Carlo (VMC) technique, is introduced and compared with existing stochastic schemes. We test the various methods for the 1D Heisenberg ring…
We present a scalable approach to performing approximate fully Bayesian inference in generic state space models. The proposed method is an alternative to particle MCMC that provides fully Bayesian inference of both the dynamic latent states…
This work introduces a novel multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) metamodeling approach for variance function estimation. Although devising an efficient experimental design for simulation metamodeling can be elusive, the MLMC-based approach…
Being the most classical generative model for serial data, state-space models (SSM) are fundamental in AI and statistical machine learning. In SSM, any form of parameter learning or latent state inference typically involves the computation…
The variational quantum Monte Carlo (VQMC) method received significant attention in the recent past because of its ability to overcome the curse of dimensionality inherent in many-body quantum systems. Close parallels exist between VQMC and…
Intractable generative models are models for which the likelihood is unavailable but sampling is possible. Most approaches to parameter inference in this setting require the computation of some discrepancy between the data and the…
In complex systems, crucial parameters are often subject to unpredictable changes in time. Climate, biological evolution and networks provide numerous examples for such non-stationarities. In many cases, improved statistical models are…
Importance sampling (IS) is commonly used for cross validation (CV) in Bayesian models, because it only involves reweighting existing posterior draws without needing to re-estimate the model by re-running Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC).…
Causal inference from observational data following the restricted structural causal models (SCM) framework hinges largely on the asymmetry between cause and effect from the data generating mechanisms, such as non-Gaussianity or…
We present a sequential Monte Carlo sampler algorithm for the Bayesian analysis of generalised linear mixed models (GLMMs). These models support a variety of interesting regression-type analyses, but performing inference is often extremely…
Monte Carlo simulations are widely used to simulate complex molecular systems, but standard approaches suffer from metastability. Lately, the use of non-local proposal updates in a collective-variable (CV) space has been proposed in several…
Bootstrapping was designed to randomly resample data from a fixed sample using Monte Carlo techniques. However, the original sample itself defines a discrete distribution. Convolutional methods are well suited for discrete distributions,…
We propose a new framework for the simultaneous inference of monotone and smoothly time-varying functions under complex temporal dynamics. This will be done utilizing the monotone rearrangement and the nonparametric estimation. We…
This article considers the sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approximation of ratios of normalizing constants associated to posterior distributions which in principle rely on continuum models. Therefore, the Monte Carlo estimation error and the…