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Estimation of a model's confidence on its outputs is critical for Conversational AI systems based on large language models (LLMs), especially for reducing hallucination and preventing over-reliance. In this work, we provide an exhaustive…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-09-24 Yi-Jyun Sun , Suvodip Dey , Dilek Hakkani-Tur , Gokhan Tur

Prompt optimization algorithms for Large Language Models (LLMs) excel in multi-step reasoning but still lack effective uncertainty estimation. This paper introduces a benchmark dataset to evaluate uncertainty metrics, focusing on Answer,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-30 Pei-Fu Guo , Yun-Da Tsai , Shou-De Lin

Using AI to create autonomous researchers has the potential to accelerate scientific discovery. A prerequisite for this vision is understanding how well an AI model can identify the underlying structure of a black-box system from its…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-26 Jiayi Geng , Howard Chen , Dilip Arumugam , Thomas L. Griffiths

Verbal confidence -- prompting LLMs to state their confidence as a number or category -- is widely used to extract uncertainty estimates from black-box models. However, how LLMs internally generate such scores remains unknown. We address…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-20 Dharshan Kumaran , Arthur Conmy , Federico Barbero , Simon Osindero , Viorica Patraucean , Petar Veličković

Large Language Models (LLMs) have been suggested for use in automated vulnerability repair, but benchmarks showing they can consistently identify security-related bugs are lacking. We thus develop SecLLMHolmes, a fully automated evaluation…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2024-07-25 Saad Ullah , Mingji Han , Saurabh Pujar , Hammond Pearce , Ayse Coskun , Gianluca Stringhini

Large Language Models (LLMs) have revolutionized inference across diverse natural language tasks, with larger models performing better but at higher computational costs. We propose a confidence-driven strategy that dynamically selects the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-02-26 Bo-Wei Chen , Chung-Chi Chen , An-Zi Yen

We introduce an intuitive method to test the robustness (stability and explainability) of any black-box LLM in real-time via its local deviation from harmoniticity, denoted as $\gamma$. To the best of our knowledge this is the first…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-26 Nicholas S. Kersting , Mohammad Rahman , Suchismitha Vedala , Yang Wang

This study introduces a benchmark framework for evaluating the financial decision-making capabilities of large language models (LLMs) through portfolio optimization problems with mathematically explicit solutions. Unlike existing financial…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-05-28 Hanyong Cho , Jang Ho Kim

Trained on a vast amount of data, Large Language models (LLMs) have achieved unprecedented success and generalization in modeling fairly complex textual inputs in the abstract space, making them powerful tools for zero-shot learning. Such…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-05-19 Shervin Ardeshir

As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in high-stakes applications, robust uncertainty estimation is essential for ensuring the safe and trustworthy deployment of LLMs. We present the most comprehensive study to date of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-02 Linwei Tao , Yi-Fan Yeh , Minjing Dong , Tao Huang , Philip Torr , Chang Xu

We present a novel approach for attacking black-box large language models (LLMs) by exploiting their ability to express confidence in natural language. Existing black-box attacks require either access to continuous model outputs like logits…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Jie Zhang , Meng Ding , Yang Liu , Jue Hong , Florian Tramèr

Large Language Models (LLMs) are employed across various high-stakes domains, where the reliability of their outputs is crucial. One commonly used method to assess the reliability of LLMs' responses is uncertainty estimation, which gauges…

Large Language Models (LLMs) show promise for automated grading, but their outputs can be unreliable. Rather than improving grading accuracy directly, we address a complementary problem: \textit{predicting when an LLM grader is likely to be…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-01 Robinson Ferrer , Damla Turgut , Zhongzhou Chen , Shashank Sonkar

The rapid advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) in the realm of mathematical reasoning necessitates comprehensive evaluations to gauge progress and inspire future directions. Existing assessments predominantly focus on problem-solving…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Xiaoyuan Li , Wenjie Wang , Moxin Li , Junrong Guo , Yang Zhang , Fuli Feng

Existing tasks fall short in evaluating reasoning ability of Large Language Models (LLMs) in an interactive, unknown environment. This deficiency leads to the isolated assessment of deductive, inductive, and abductive reasoning, neglecting…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-07 Congchi Yin , Tianyi Wu , Yankai Shu , Alex Gu , Yunhan Wang , Jun Shao , Xun Jiang , Piji Li

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated transformative potential in scientific research, yet their deployment in high-stakes contexts raises significant trustworthiness concerns. Here, we introduce SciTrust 2.0, a comprehensive…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-10-31 Emily Herron , Junqi Yin , Feiyi Wang

Abstention Ability (AA) is a critical aspect of Large Language Model (LLM) reliability, referring to an LLM's capability to withhold responses when uncertain or lacking a definitive answer, without compromising performance. Although…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-09-25 Nishanth Madhusudhan , Sathwik Tejaswi Madhusudhan , Vikas Yadav , Masoud Hashemi

Large Language Models (LLMs), including ChatGPT and LLaMA, are susceptible to generating hallucinated answers in a confident tone. While efforts to elicit and calibrate confidence scores have proven useful, recent findings show that…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-24 Lihu Chen , Alexandre Perez-Lebel , Fabian M. Suchanek , Gaël Varoquaux

Language models (LMs) should provide reliable confidence estimates to help users detect mistakes in their outputs and defer to human experts when necessary. Asking a language model to assess its confidence ("Score your confidence from…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-02-04 Vaishnavi Shrivastava , Ananya Kumar , Percy Liang

This study introduces a framework for evaluating consistency in large language model (LLM) binary text classification, addressing the lack of established reliability assessment methods. Adapting psychometric principles, we determine sample…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-12-23 Fadel M. Megahed , Ying-Ju Chen , L. Allision Jones-Farmer , Younghwa Lee , Jiawei Brooke Wang , Inez M. Zwetsloot