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Empowering large language models to accurately express confidence in their answers is essential for trustworthy decision-making. Previous confidence elicitation methods, which primarily rely on white-box access to internal model information…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-19 Miao Xiong , Zhiyuan Hu , Xinyang Lu , Yifei Li , Jie Fu , Junxian He , Bryan Hooi

Confidence estimation for text-to-SQL aims to assess the reliability of model-generated SQL queries without having access to gold answers. We study this problem in the context of large language models (LLMs), where access to model weights…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-08-21 Sepideh Entezari Maleki , Mohammadreza Pourreza , Davood Rafiei

There is a growing literature on reasoning by large language models (LLMs), but the discussion on the uncertainty in their responses is still lacking. Our aim is to assess the extent of confidence that LLMs have in their answers and how it…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-12-23 Yudi Pawitan , Chris Holmes

In many high-risk machine learning applications it is essential for a model to indicate when it is uncertain about a prediction. While large language models (LLMs) can reach and even surpass human-level accuracy on a variety of benchmarks,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-06-06 Evan Becker , Stefano Soatto

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown a high capability in answering questions on a diverse range of topics. However, these models sometimes produce biased, ideologized or incorrect responses, limiting their applications if there is no…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-08 Xiaotian Zhou , Di Tang , Xiaofeng Wang , Xiaozhong Liu

A fundamental issue in deep learning has been adversarial robustness. As these systems have scaled, such issues have persisted. Currently, large language models (LLMs) with billions of parameters suffer from adversarial attacks just like…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Brian Formento , Chuan Sheng Foo , See-Kiong Ng

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across a wide range of tasks in various domains. Despite their impressive performance, they can be unreliable due to factual errors in their generations. Assessing their…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-26 Jiahui Geng , Fengyu Cai , Yuxia Wang , Heinz Koeppl , Preslav Nakov , Iryna Gurevych

Large language models (LLMs) specializing in natural language generation (NLG) have recently started exhibiting promising capabilities across a variety of domains. However, gauging the trustworthiness of responses generated by LLMs remains…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-05-21 Zhen Lin , Shubhendu Trivedi , Jimeng Sun

Large Language Models (LLMs) are known to produce very high-quality tests and responses to our queries. But how much can we trust this generated text? In this paper, we study the problem of uncertainty quantification in LLMs. We propose a…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-04-28 Muhammad Mubashar , Shireen Kudukkil Manchingal , Fabio Cuzzolin

This paper introduces a novel task to assess the faithfulness of large language models (LLMs) using local perturbations and self-explanations. Many LLMs often require additional context to answer certain questions correctly. For this…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-09-24 Christos Fragkathoulas , Odysseas S. Chlapanis

As the use of Large Language Models (LLMs) becomes more widespread, understanding their self-evaluation of confidence in generated responses becomes increasingly important as it is integral to the reliability of the output of these models.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-06-18 Abhishek Kumar , Robert Morabito , Sanzhar Umbet , Jad Kabbara , Ali Emami

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in high-stakes settings, where overconfident responses can mislead users. Reliable confidence estimation has been shown to enhance trust and task accuracy. Yet existing methods face…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Linwei Tao , Yi-Fan Yeh , Bo Kai , Minjing Dong , Tao Huang , Tom A. Lamb , Jialin Yu , Philip H. S. Torr , Chang Xu

We introduce BSDetector, a method for detecting bad and speculative answers from a pretrained Large Language Model by estimating a numeric confidence score for any output it generated. Our uncertainty quantification technique works for any…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-10-05 Jiuhai Chen , Jonas Mueller

Large language models (LLMs) are being explored for diagnostic decision support, yet their ability to estimate pre-test probabilities, vital for clinical decision-making, remains limited. This study evaluates two LLMs, Mistral-7B and…

Black-box large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in various environments, making it essential for these models to effectively convey their confidence and uncertainty, especially in high-stakes settings. However, these models…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-09-06 Jeremy Qin , Bang Liu , Quoc Dinh Nguyen

As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in user-facing applications, building trust and maintaining safety by accurately quantifying a model's confidence in its prediction becomes even more important. However, finding…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-12 Dennis Ulmer , Martin Gubri , Hwaran Lee , Sangdoo Yun , Seong Joon Oh

To maintain user trust, large language models (LLMs) should signal low confidence on examples where they are incorrect, instead of misleading the user. The standard approach of estimating confidence is to use the softmax probabilities of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-11-16 Vaishnavi Shrivastava , Percy Liang , Ananya Kumar

Reliably predicting the behavior of language models -- such as whether their outputs are correct or have been adversarially manipulated -- is a fundamentally challenging task. This is often made even more difficult as frontier language…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-02 Dylan Sam , Marc Finzi , J. Zico Kolter

Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate remarkable performance in semantic understanding and generation, yet accurately assessing their output reliability remains a significant challenge. While numerous studies have explored calibration…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-12-18 Liangru Xie , Hui Liu , Jingying Zeng , Xianfeng Tang , Yan Han , Chen Luo , Jing Huang , Zhen Li , Suhang Wang , Qi He

Large Language Models (LLMs) have acquired ubiquitous attention for their performances across diverse domains. Our study here searches through LLMs' cognitive abilities and confidence dynamics. We dive deep into understanding the alignment…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-09-29 Aniket Kumar Singh , Suman Devkota , Bishal Lamichhane , Uttam Dhakal , Chandra Dhakal
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