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We quantify the bullwhip effect (which measures how the variance in replenishment orders is amplified as the orders move up the supply chain) when random demands and random lead times are estimated using the industrially popular moving…

Applications · Statistics 2017-02-07 Zbigniew Michna , Stephen M. Disney , Peter Nielsen

The paper offers a unified approach to the study of three locally adaptive estimation methods in the context of univariate time series from both theoretical and empirical points of view. A general procedure for the computation of critical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-03 Mstislav Elagin

We study statistical inference and distributionally robust solution methods for stochastic optimization problems, focusing on confidence intervals for optimal values and solutions that achieve exact coverage asymptotically. We develop a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-07-03 John Duchi , Peter Glynn , Hongseok Namkoong

We extend well-known comparative results under expected utility to models of non-expected utility by providing novel conditions on local utility functions. We illustrate how our results parallel, and are distinct from, existing results for…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-01-16 Collin Raymond , Yangwei Song

In this paper non-asymptotic exact exponential estimates are derived for the tail of maximum distribution of random field in the terms of majoring measures or, equally, generic chaining.

Probability · Mathematics 2008-02-05 E. Ostrovsky , E. Rogover

We prove the homogenization of a class of one-dimensional viscous Hamilton-Jacobi equations with random Hamiltonians that are nonconvex in the gradient variable. Due to the special form of the Hamiltonians, the solutions of these PDEs with…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2022-04-20 Elena Kosygina , Atilla Yilmaz , Ofer Zeitouni

In this paper, we consider projection estimates for L\'evy densities in high-frequency setup. We give a unified treatment for different sets of basis functions and focus on the asymptotic properties of the maximal deviation distribution for…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-01-18 Valentin Konakov , Vladimir Panov

We consider both discrete and continuous "uncertain horizon" deterministic control processes, for which the termination time is a random variable. We examine the dynamic programming equations for the value function of such processes,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-01-06 June Andrews , Alexander Vladimirsky

Designing and analyzing optimization methods via continuous-time models expressed as ordinary differential equations (ODEs) is a promising approach for its intuitiveness and simplicity. A key concern, however, is that the convergence rates…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-12-30 Kansei Ushiyama , Shun Sato , Takayasu Matsuo

We construct a new family of chance constrained directional models in stochastic data envelopment analysis, generalizing the deterministic directional models and the chance constrained radial models. We prove that chance constrained…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-21 Vicente J. Bolos , Rafael Benitez , Vicente Coll-Serrano

Consider a branching random walk on $\mathbb Z$ in discrete time. Denote by $L_n(k)$ the number of particles at site $k\in\mathbb Z$ at time $n\in\mathbb N_0$. By the profile of the branching random walk (at time $n$) we mean the function…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-06-14 Rudolf Grübel , Zakhar Kabluchko

Stochastic optimal control problems have a long tradition in applied probability, with the questions addressed being of high relevance in a multitude of fields. Even though theoretical solutions are well understood in many scenarios, their…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-28 Sören Christensen , Claudia Strauch , Lukas Trottner

We obtain the distribution of the maximal average in a sequence of independent identically distributed exponential random variables. Surprisingly enough, it turns out that the inverse distribution admits a simple closed form. An application…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-25 Dimitris Cheliotis , Nickos Papadatos

This paper investigates L\'evy walks with random velocities, extending classical models beyond constant speed assumptions. We derive scaling limits, demonstrating that diffusion depends on interplay between heavy-tailed duration and…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-28 Hubert Woszczek , Marek A. Teuerle , Agnieszka Wyłomańska

This expository paper discusses Bayesian decision analysis perspectives on problems of constrained forecasting. Foundational and pedagogic discussion contrasts decision analytic approaches with the traditional, but typically inappropriate,…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-01 Mike West

In this paper, we examine the fundamental performance limits of prediction, with or without side information. More specifically, we derive generic lower bounds on the $\mathcal{L}_p$ norms of the prediction errors that are valid for any…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-07 Song Fang , Quanyan Zhu

For a class of linear switched systems in continuous time a controllability condition implies that state feedbacks allow to achieve almost sure stabilization with arbitrary exponential decay rates. This is based on the Multiplicative…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2019-01-11 Fritz Colonius , Guilherme Mazanti

This paper investigates the problem of tracking solutions of stochastic optimization problems with time-varying costs that depend on random variables with decision-dependent distributions. In this context, we propose the use of an online…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-10-29 Killian Wood , Gianluca Bianchin , Emiliano Dall'Anese

In a general class of one dimensional random differential equation the convergence of the distribution function of the solution to stationary state distribution is studied. In particular it is proved the boundedness respectively the…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-07-07 Gyorgy Steinbrecher , Xavier Garbet , Boris Weyssow

Logistic regression involving high-dimensional covariates is a practically important problem. Often the goal is variable selection, i.e., determining which few of the many covariates are associated with the binary response. Unfortunately,…

Computation · Statistics 2025-02-18 Yiqi Tang , Ryan Martin