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The "typical" asymptotic behavior of the weighted sums of independent, identically distibuted random vectors in k-dimensional space is considered. It is shown that under finitnes of fifth absolute moment of an individual term the rate of…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-12-25 Sagak Ayvazyan

We show that unconverged stochastic gradient descent can be interpreted as a procedure that samples from a nonparametric variational approximate posterior distribution. This distribution is implicitly defined as the transformation of an…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-04-07 Dougal Maclaurin , David Duvenaud , Ryan P. Adams

We present a powerful general framework for designing data-dependent optimization algorithms, building upon and unifying recent techniques in adaptive regularization, optimistic gradient predictions, and problem-dependent randomization. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-10-14 Mehryar Mohri , Scott Yang

Concentration inequalities, a major tool in probability theory, quantify how much a random variable deviates from a certain quantity. This paper proposes a systematic convex optimization approach to studying and generating concentration…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-08-30 Celine Moucer , Adrien Taylor , Francis Bach

Supervised learning by extreme learning machines resp. neural networks with random weights is studied under a non-stationary spatial-temporal sampling design which especially addresses settings where an autonomous object moving in a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-09-02 Ansgar Steland

We discuss how an eigenvalue perturbation formula for transfer operators of dynamical systems is related to exponential hitting time distributions and extreme value theory for processes generated by chaotic dynamical systems. We also list a…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2017-01-16 Gerhard Keller

The distribution of return intervals of extreme events is studied in time series characterized by finite-term correlations with non-exponential decay. Precisely, it has been analyzed the statistics of the return intervals of extreme values…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-11-11 Cecilia Pennetta

The extremes of a stationary time series typically occur in clusters. A primary measure for this phenomenon is the extremal index, representing the reciprocal of the expected cluster size. Both a disjoint and a sliding blocks estimator for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-07-14 Betina Berghaus , Axel Bücher

Causal inference problems often involve continuous treatments, such as dose, duration, or frequency. However, identifying and estimating standard dose-response estimands requires that everyone has some chance of receiving any level of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-28 Kyle Schindl , Shuying Shen , Edward H. Kennedy

The standard odds ratio of logistic regression is foundational but limited to individual explanatory variables. This work derives a multivariable odds ratio that applies to all the explanatory variables in all their combinations.

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-25 José Raúl Martínez

We study the high dimensional asymptotics of the expected number of critical points of a given Morse index of Gaussian random holomorphic sections over complex projective space. We explicitly compute the exponential growth rate of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-01-27 Xavier Garcia

This paper considers the problem of learning, from samples, the dependency structure of a system of linear stochastic differential equations, when some of the variables are latent. In particular, we observe the time evolution of some…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-05-02 Ali Jalali , Sujay Sanghavi

We apply a simple method to provide explicit expressions for different scaling exponents in intermittent fully developed turbulence, that before were only given through a Legendre transform. This includes predictability exponents for…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2009-11-11 Francois G Schmitt

Many forecasting applications have a limited distributed target variable, which is zero for most observations and positive for the remaining observations. In the econometrics literature, there is much research about statistical model…

Applications · Statistics 2023-03-28 Björn Bokelmann , Stefan Lessmann

We study the exponential convergence to the stationary state for nonequilibrium Langevin dynamics, by a perturbative approach based on hypocoercive techniques developed for equilibrium Langevin dynamics. The Hamiltonian and overdamped…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2017-07-06 Alessandra Iacobucci , Stefano Olla , Gabriel Stoltz

We consider the problem of sampling from a target distribution, which is \emph {not necessarily logconcave}, in the context of empirical risk minimization and stochastic optimization as presented in Raginsky et al. (2017). Non-asymptotic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-02-03 Ngoc Huy Chau , Éric Moulines , Miklos Rásonyi , Sotirios Sabanis , Ying Zhang

We consider heteroscedastic nonparametric regression models, when both the mean function and variance function are unknown and to be estimated with nonparametric approaches. We derive convergence rates of posterior distributions for this…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-10-07 Yuao Hu

We present a numerical method to compute expectations of functionals of a piecewise-deterministic Markov process. We discuss time dependent functionals as well as deterministic time horizon problems. Our approach is based on the…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-01-31 Adrien Brandejsky , Benoîte de Saporta , François Dufour

We generalize the diffusion-limited aggregation by issuing many randomly-walking particles, which stick to a cluster at the discrete time unit providing its growth. Using simple combinatorial arguments we determine probabilities of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-05-24 Oleg Alekseev , Mark Mineev-Weinstein

The purpose of the present paper is to establish moment estimates of Rosenthal type for a rather general class of random variables satisfying certain bounds on the cumulants. We consider sequences of random variables which satisfy a central…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-01-16 Peter Eichelsbacher , Lukas Knichel