Related papers: Normalizing Flows for Conformal Regression
We address the problem of making Conformal Prediction (CP) intervals locally adaptive. Most existing methods focus on approximating the object-conditional validity of the intervals by partitioning or re-weighting the calibration set. Our…
Machine-learning techniques are essential in modern collider research, yet their probabilistic outputs often lack calibrated uncertainty estimates and finite-sample guarantees, limiting their direct use in statistical inference and…
Conformal prediction (CP) is a general framework to quantify the predictive uncertainty of machine learning models that uses a set prediction to include the true label with a valid probability. To align the uncertainty measured by CP,…
Conformal prediction (CP) is a method for constructing a prediction interval around the output of a fitted model, whose validity does not rely on the model being correct--the CP interval offers a coverage guarantee that is…
Reliable confidence measures of metrics derived from medical imaging reconstruction pipelines would improve the standard of decision-making in many clinical workflows. Conformal Prediction (CP) provides a robust framework for producing…
Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular method for uncertainty quantification with machine learning models. While conformal prediction provides probabilistic guarantees regarding the coverage of the true label, these guarantees are agnostic…
Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free method for constructing prediction sets with marginal finite-sample coverage guarantees, making it a suitable framework for reliable uncertainty quantification in safety-critical object…
In high-stakes scenarios, such as medical imaging applications, it is critical to equip the predictions of a regression model with reliable confidence intervals. Recently, Conformal Prediction (CP) has emerged as a powerful statistical…
Conformal prediction (CP) constructs prediction sets with marginal coverage guarantees under the assumption that the calibration and test distributions are identical. However, under distribution shift, existing approaches primarily align…
Conformal Prediction offers a powerful framework for quantifying uncertainty in machine learning models, enabling the construction of prediction sets with finite-sample validity guarantees. While easily adaptable to non-probabilistic…
Conformal prediction (CP) is a wrapper around traditional machine learning models, giving coverage guarantees under the sole assumption of exchangeability; in classification problems, for a chosen significance level $\varepsilon$, CP…
In this work, we consider the problem of building distribution-free prediction intervals with finite-sample conditional coverage guarantees. Conformal prediction (CP) is an increasingly popular framework for building such intervals with…
Uncertainty quantification is essential in decision-making, especially when joint distributions of random variables are involved. While conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction sets with valid coverage guarantees, it…
Machine learning applications often require calibrated predictions, e.g. a 90\% credible interval should contain the true outcome 90\% of the times. However, typical definitions of calibration only require this to hold on average, and offer…
Conformal Prediction (CP) serves as a robust framework that quantifies uncertainty in predictions made by Machine Learning (ML) models. Unlike traditional point predictors, CP generates statistically valid prediction regions, also known as…
Conformal Prediction (CP) is a powerful framework for constructing prediction sets with guaranteed coverage. However, recent studies have shown that integrating confidence calibration with CP can lead to a degradation in efficiency. In this…
Reliable uncertainty quantification is of critical importance in time series forecasting, yet traditional methods often rely on restrictive distributional assumptions. Conformal prediction (CP) has emerged as a promising distribution-free…
Calibration error is commonly adopted for evaluating the quality of uncertainty estimators in deep neural networks. In this paper, we argue that such a metric is highly beneficial for training predictive models, even when we do not…
Conformal prediction (CP) for regression can be challenging, especially when the output distribution is heteroscedastic, multimodal, or skewed. Some of the issues can be addressed by estimating a distribution over the output, but in…
Conformal prediction (CP) provides finite-sample, distribution-free marginal coverage, but standard conformal regression intervals can be inefficient under heteroscedasticity and skewness. In particular, popular constructions such as…