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This paper presents a novel probabilistic forecasting method called ensemble conformalized quantile regression (EnCQR). EnCQR constructs distribution-free and approximately marginally valid prediction intervals (PIs), which are suitable for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-08 Vilde Jensen , Filippo Maria Bianchi , Stian Norman Anfinsen

Censored quantile regression has emerged as a prominent alternative to classical Cox's proportional hazards model or accelerated failure time model in both theoretical and applied statistics. While quantile regression has been extensively…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-27 Taehwa Choi , Seohyeon Park , Hunyong Cho , Sangbum Choi

We develop a predictive inference procedure that combines conformal prediction (CP) with unconditional quantile regression (QR) -- a commonly used tool in econometrics that involves regressing the recentered influence function (RIF) of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-05 Ahmed M. Alaa , Zeshan Hussain , David Sontag

The Multi-Kink Quantile Regression (MKQR) model is an important tool for analyzing data with heterogeneous conditional distributions, especially when quantiles of response variable are of interest, due to its robustness to outliers and…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-16 Wei Zhong , Chuang Wan , Wenyang Zhang

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in graph neural networks (GNNs) is crucial in high-stakes domains but remains a significant challenge. In graph settings, message passing often relies on strong assumptions such as exchangeability, which are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-07 Soyoung park , Hwanjun Song , Sungsu Lim

Quantile regression has demonstrated promising utility in longitudinal data analysis. Existing work is primarily focused on modeling cross-sectional outcomes, while outcome trajectories often carry more substantive information in practice.…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-19 Huijuan Ma , Limin Peng , Haoda Fu

Quantile regression is a tool for learning conditional distributions. In this paper we study quantile regression in the setting where a protected attribute is unavailable when fitting the model. This can lead to "unfair'' quantile…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-07-23 Dana Yang , John Lafferty , David Pollard

Uncertainty quantification is vital for decision-making and risk assessment in machine learning. Mean-variance regression models, which predict both a mean and residual noise for each data point, provide a simple approach to uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-01 Eliot Wong-Toi , Alex Boyd , Vincent Fortuin , Stephan Mandt

Continuous value prediction plays a crucial role in industrial-scale recommendation systems, including tasks such as predicting users' watch-time and estimating the gross merchandise value (GMV) in e-commerce transactions. However, it…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2026-02-27 Runpeng Cui , Zhipeng Sun , Chi Lu , Peng Jiang

Rigorous guarantees about the performance of predictive algorithms are necessary in order to ensure their responsible use. Previous work has largely focused on bounding the expected loss of a predictor, but this is not sufficient in many…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-29 Jake C. Snell , Thomas P. Zollo , Zhun Deng , Toniann Pitassi , Richard Zemel

We investigate different methods for regularizing quantile regression when predicting either a subset of quantiles or the full inverse CDF. We show that minimizing an expected pinball loss over a continuous distribution of quantiles is a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-11 Taman Narayan , Serena Wang , Kevin Canini , Maya Gupta

In this paper, we consider high-dimensional Lp-quantile regression which only requires a low order moment of the error and is also a natural generalization of the above methods and Lp-regression as well. The loss function of Lp-quantile…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-05 Fuming Lin WEilin Mou

Various events in the nature, economics and in other areas force us to combine the study of extremes with regression and other methods. A useful tool for reducing the role of nuisance regression, while we are interested in the shape or…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-12-07 Jana Jureckova

This paper introduces a new framework for multivariate quantile regression based on the multivariate distribution function, termed multivariate quantile regression (MQR). In contrast to existing approaches--such as directional quantiles,…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-01 Antonio F. Galvao , Gabriel Montes-Rojas

Near-term quantum computation holds potential across multiple application domains. However, imperfect preparation and evolution of states due to algorithmic and experimental shortcomings, characteristic in the near-term implementation,…

We address the problem of how to achieve optimal inference in distributed quantile regression without stringent scaling conditions. This is challenging due to the non-smooth nature of the quantile regression (QR) loss function, which…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-24 Kean Ming Tan , Heather Battey , Wen-Xin Zhou

This paper considers doing quantile regression on censored data using neural networks (NNs). This adds to the survival analysis toolkit by allowing direct prediction of the target variable, along with a distribution-free characterisation of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-07 Tim Pearce , Jong-Hyeon Jeong , Yichen Jia , Jun Zhu

Quantile regression \parencite{Koenker1978} is a robust and practically useful way to efficiently model quantile varying correlation and predict varied response quantiles of interest. This article constructs and tests MM algorithms, which…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-18 Yifan Cheng , Anthony Yung Cheung Kuk

Quantile regression is a powerful tool for robust and heterogeneous learning that has seen applications in a diverse range of applied areas. However, its broader application is often hindered by the substantial computational demands arising…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-13 Qian Tang , Yuwen Gu , Boxiang Wang

Penalized quantile regression (QR) is widely used for studying the relationship between a response variable and a set of predictors under data heterogeneity in high-dimensional settings. Compared to penalized least squares, scalable…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-06 Rebeka Man , Xiaoou Pan , Kean Ming Tan , Wen-Xin Zhou