Related papers: Relaxed Quantile Regression: Prediction Intervals …
Conformalized Quantile Regression (CQR) is a recently proposed method for constructing prediction intervals for a response $Y$ given covariates $X$, without making distributional assumptions. However, existing constructions of CQR can be…
The quantification of uncertainty in prediction models is crucial for reliable decision-making, yet remains a significant challenge. Interval time series forecasting offers a principled solution to this problem by providing prediction…
Quantile regression (QR) is a powerful tool for estimating one or more conditional quantiles of a target variable $\mathrm{Y}$ given explanatory features $\boldsymbol{\mathrm{X}}$. A limitation of QR is that it is only defined for scalar…
Quantile Regression (QR) can be used to estimate aleatoric uncertainty in deep neural networks and can generate prediction intervals. Quantifying uncertainty is particularly important in critical applications such as clinical diagnosis,…
Quantile regression provides a framework for modeling statistical quantities of interest other than the conditional mean. The regression methodology is well developed for linear models, but less so for nonparametric models. We consider…
Quantile regression is a fundamental problem in statistical learning motivated by a need to quantify uncertainty in predictions, or to model a diverse population without being overly reductive. For instance, epidemiological forecasts, cost…
Quantile regression is a powerful tool capable of offering a richer view of the data as compared to least-squares regression. Quantile regression is typically performed individually on a few quantiles or a grid of quantiles without…
Due to the dynamic nature of financial markets, maintaining models that produce precise predictions over time is difficult. Often the goal isn't just point prediction but determining uncertainty. Quantifying uncertainty, especially the…
Regression models that go beyond the mean, alongside coherent risk measures, have been important tools in modern data analysis. This paper introduces the innovative concept of Average Quantile Regression (AQR), which is smooth at the…
Quantile regression is a method to estimate the quantiles of the conditional distribution of a response variable, and as such it permits a much more accurate portrayal of the relationship between the response variable and observed…
Quantile Regression (QR) provides a way to approximate a single conditional quantile. To have a more informative description of the conditional distribution, QR can be merged with deep learning techniques to simultaneously estimate multiple…
Conformal prediction is a technique for constructing prediction intervals that attain valid coverage in finite samples, without making distributional assumptions. Despite this appeal, existing conformal methods can be unnecessarily…
Symbolic Regression (SR) is a well-established framework for generating interpretable or white-box predictive models. Although SR has been successfully applied to create interpretable estimates of the average of the outcome, it is currently…
The standard asymmetric Laplace framework for Bayesian quantile regression (BQR) suffers from a fundamental decision-theoretic misalignment, yielding biased finite-sample estimates, and precludes gradient-based computation due to…
We develop a collection of methods for adjusting the predictions of quantile regression to ensure coverage. Our methods are model agnostic and can be used to correct for high-dimensional overfitting bias with only minimal assumptions.…
Quantile regression is a powerful tool for detecting exposure-outcome associations given covariates across different parts of the outcome's distribution, but has two major limitations when the aim is to infer the effect of an exposure.…
Several studies have focused on the Realized Range Volatility, an estimator of the quadratic variation of financial prices, taking into account the impact of microstructure noise and jumps. However, none has considered direct modeling and…
In this article, we present a novel approach to multivariate probabilistic forecasting. Our approach is based on an extension of single-output quantile regression (QR) to multivariate-targets, called quantile surfaces (QS). QS uses a simple…
Quantile regression (QR) is a statistical tool for distribution-free estimation of conditional quantiles of a target variable given explanatory features. QR is limited by the assumption that the target distribution is univariate and defined…
Quantifying the uncertainty of forecasting models is essential to assess and mitigate the risks associated with data-driven decisions, especially in volatile domains such as electricity markets. Machine learning methods can provide highly…