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Related papers: AIFS -- ECMWF's data-driven forecasting system

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Machine learning methods have been extensively used to study the dynamics of complex fluid flows. One such algorithm, known as adaptive neural fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), can generate data-driven predictions for flow fields but has not…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2021-03-08 Zexia Zhang , Ajay B. Limaye , Ali Khosronejad

Significant wave height is one of the most important parameters characterizing ocean waves, and accurate numerical ocean wave forecasting is crucial for coastal protection and shipping. However, due to the randomness and nonlinearity of the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-12-01 Wei Zhang , Yu Sun , Yapeng Wu , Junyu Dong , Xiaojiang Song , Zhiyi Gao , Renbo Pang , Boyu Guoan

Machine learning weather models trained on observed atmospheric conditions can outperform conventional physics-based models at short- to medium-range (1-14 day) forecast timescales. Here we take the machine learning weather model ACE2,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-04-01 Chris Kent , Adam A. Scaife , Nick J. Dunstone , Doug Smith , Steven C. Hardiman , Tom Dunstan , Oliver Watt-Meyer

Estimation of the wind speed plays an important role in many issues such as route determination of ships, efficient use of wind roses, and correct planning of agricultural activities. In this study, wind velocity estimation is calculated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-02 Inan Timur , Baba Ahmet Fevzi

There is growing interest in data-driven weather prediction (DDWP), for example using convolutional neural networks such as U-NETs that are trained on data from models or reanalysis. Here, we propose 3 components to integrate with commonly…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-07-04 Ashesh Chattopadhyay , Mustafa Mustafa , Pedram Hassanzadeh , Eviatar Bach , Karthik Kashinath

Recent advances in AI-based weather prediction have led to the development of artificial intelligence weather prediction (AIWP) models with competitive forecast skill compared to traditional NWP models, but with substantially reduced…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-10-30 Nicholas Loveday , Tracy Hertneky

Anthropogenic climate change (ACC) is altering the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Attributing individual extreme events (EEs) to ACC is becoming crucial to assess the risks of climate change. Traditional attribution…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-08-30 Bernat Jiménez-Esteve , David Barriopedro , Juan Emmanuel Johnson , Ricardo Garcia-Herrera

Time series forecasting is an important challenge with significant applications in areas such as weather prediction, stock market analysis, scientific simulations and industrial process analysis. In this work, we introduce LMS-AutoTSF, a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-08 Ibrahim Delibasoglu , Sanjay Chakraborty , Fredrik Heintz

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are highly destructive and inherently uncertain weather systems. Ensemble forecasting helps quantify these uncertainties, yet traditional systems are constrained by high computational costs and limited capability to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-29 Jun Liu , Tao Zhou , Jiarui Li , Xiaohui Zhong , Peng Zhang , Jie Feng , Lei Chen , Hao Li

Floods are one of the most common natural disasters, with a disproportionate impact in developing countries that often lack dense streamflow gauge networks. Accurate and timely warnings are critical for mitigating flood risks, but…

Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) involves predicting a large number of future values of a time series based on the past values. This is an essential task in a wide range of domains including weather forecasting, stock market…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-03-19 Hari Hara Suthan Chittoor , Paul Robert Griffin , Ariel Neufeld , Jayne Thompson , Mile Gu

While machine learning (ML) post-processing of convection-allowing model (CAM) output for severe weather hazards (large hail, damaging winds, and/or tornadoes) has shown promise for very short lead times (0-3 hours), its application to…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-03-24 Montgomery Flora , Samuel Varga , Corey Potvin , Noah Lang

The advent of Large Weather Models (LWMs) has marked a turning point in data-driven forecasting, with many models now outperforming traditional numerical systems in the medium range. However, achieving stable, long-range autoregressive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-21 Minjong Cheon

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) has advanced significantly in recent decades but still faces challenges in accuracy, computational efficiency, and scalability. Data-driven weather models have shown great promise, sometimes surpassing…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-03-18 Animesh Choudhury , Jagabandhu Panda

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), is widely used in precipitation forecasting, based on complex equations of atmospheric motion requires supercomputers to infer the state of the atmosphere. Due to the complexity of the task and the huge…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-01-10 Xinyu Xiao , Qiuming Kuang , Shiming Xiang , Junnan Hu , Chunhong Pan

Making accurate forecasts for a complex system is a challenge in various practical applications. The major difficulty in solving such a problem concerns nonlinear spatiotemporal dynamics with time-varying characteristics. Takens' delay…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-04-09 Hao Peng , Wei Wang , Pei Chen , Rui Liu

Convective available potential energy (CAPE) is an important variable for forecasting severe weather and understanding deep convection and precipitation. The latest versions of the Global Forecast System (GFS) and related Global Ensemble…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-05-26 Zachary James , Joseph Guinness , Arthur DeGaetano

Precipitation prediction has undergone a profound transformation. A notable limitation of traditional NWP is the need for extensive statistical post-processing. To address this challenge, neural network-based approaches were developed.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-03 Yugong Zeng , Jiayuan Wang , Jonathan Wu

The issue of the accuracy of wind speed/power forecasts is becoming more and more important as wind power production continues to increase year after year. Having accurate forecasts for the energy market clashes with intrinsic difficulties…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-06-23 Gabriele Casciaro , Francesco Ferrari , Mattia Cavaiola , Andrea Mazzino

Multivariate time series forecasting is a pivotal task in several domains, including financial planning, medical diagnostics, and climate science. This paper presents the Neural Fourier Transform (NFT) algorithm, which combines…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-24 Noam Koren , Kira Radinsky