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Record-breaking temperature events are now very frequently in the news, viewed as evidence of climate change. With this as motivation, we undertake the first substantial spatial modeling investigation of temperature record-breaking across…

How strong are quantitative contributions of the key natural modes of climate variability and the anthropogenic factor characterized by the changes of the radiative forcing of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to the trends of the surface…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-12-03 I. I. Mokhov , D. A. Smirnov

Climate change is commonly associated with an overall increase in mean temperature in a defined past time period. Many studies consider temperature trends at the global scale, but the literature is lacking in in-depth analysis of the…

Applications · Statistics 2022-10-12 Qibin Duan , Clare A. McGrory , Glenn Brown , Kerrie Mengersen , You-Gan Wang

The potential habitability of known exoplanets is often categorized by a nominal equilibrium temperature assuming a Bond albedo of either 0.3, similar to Earth, or 0. As an indicator of habitability, this leaves much to be desired, because…

Freshwater forcing from a retreating Antarctic Ice Sheet could have a wide range of impacts on future global climate. Here, we report on multi-century (present-2250) climate simulations performed using a fully coupled numerical model…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-05-21 Shaina Rogstad , Alan Condron , Robert DeConto , David Pollard

There exists a positive correlation between orbital eccentricity and the average stellar flux that planets receive from their parent star. Often, though, it is assumed that the average equilibrium temperature would correspondingly increase…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2017-02-24 Abel Méndez , Edgard G. Rivera-Valentín

The rise in global mean temperature is an incomplete description of warming. For many purposes, including agriculture and human life, temperature extremes may be more important than temperature means and changes in local extremes may be…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2017-08-03 J. M. Finkel , J. I. Katz

This paper aims to better understand why there was a global warming pause in 2000-2015 and why the global mean surface temperature (GMST) has risen again in recent years. We present and statistically analyze substantial time-series observed…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-09-07 Qing-Bin Lu

We propose a non-steady state model of the global temperature change. The model describes Earth's surface temperature dynamics under main climate forcing. The equations were derived from basic physical relationships and detailed assessment…

The recent increase in global temperature is attributed to anthropological global warming, (A.G.W), with a minor role for natural trends in temperature. The I.P.P.C estimates natural temperature (NAT) from climate models and attributes the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-02-01 Ian Edmonds

Energy limits that delineate the `habitable zone' for exoplanets depend on a given exoplanet's net planetary albedo (or `Bond albedo'). We here demonstrate that the planetary albedo of an observed exoplanet is limited by the above-cloud…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2025-09-05 Sean Jordan , Oliver Shorttle , Sascha P. Quanz

Global warming due to human-made gases, mainly CO2, is already 0.8{\deg}C and deleterious climate impacts are growing worldwide. More warming is 'in the pipeline' because Earth is out of energy balance, with absorbed solar energy exceeding…

Satellite altimeter observations retrieved since 1993 show that the global mean sea level is rising at an unprecedented rate (3.4mm/year). With almost three decades of observations, we can now investigate the contributions of anthropogenic…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-08-07 Saumya Sinha , John Fasullo , R. Steven Nerem , Claire Monteleoni

Earth's energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere is a key climate system metric, but its natural variability is poorly constrained by the short observational record and large uncertainty in coupled climate models. While existing ocean…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-03-24 Dominik Stiller , Gregory J. Hakim

The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest driver of interannual global climate variability and can lead to extreme weather events like droughts and flooding. Additionally, ENSO influences the mean global temperature with…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-02-04 J. Ludescher , J. Meng , J. Fan , A. Bunde , H. J. Schellnhuber

This study explores the potential to enhance the reflectance of solar insolation by the human settlement and grassland components of the Earth's terrestrial surface as a climate change mitigation measure. Preliminary estimates derived using…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2007-05-23 Robert M. Hamwey

The mean surface temperature on Earth and other planets with atmospheres is determined by the radiative balance between the non-reflected incoming solar radiation and the outgoing long-wave black-body radiation from the atmosphere. The…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-11-11 Peter D. Ditlevsen

The inter-relation of clouds, solar irradiance and surface temperature is complex and subject to different interpretations. Here, we continue our recent work, which related mainly to the period from 1960 to the present, back to 1900 with…

Geophysics · Physics 2010-03-16 A. D. Erlykin , T. Sloan , A. W. Wolfendale

We investigate whether or not the decadal and multi-decadal climate oscillations have an astronomical origin. Several global surface temperature records since 1850 and records deduced from the orbits of the planets present very similar…

Geophysics · Physics 2010-05-31 Nicola Scafetta

Observations suggest that the earth's surface has been warming relative to the troposphere for the last 25 years; this is not only difficult to explain but also contrary to the results of climate models. We provide new evidence that the…