Related papers: The ARR2 prior: flexible predictive prior definiti…

How can one perform Bayesian inference on stochastic simulators with intractable likelihoods? A recent approach is to learn the posterior from adaptively proposed simulations using neural network-based conditional density estimators.…

The cumulative shrinkage process is an increasing shrinkage prior that can be employed within models in which additional terms are supposed to play a progressively negligible role. A natural application is to Gaussian factor models, where…

We advocate for a new statistical principle that combines the most desirable aspects of both parameter inference and density estimation. This leads us to the predictively oriented (PrO) posterior, which expresses uncertainty as a…

This paper develops a methodology for approximating the posterior first two moments of the posterior distribution in Bayesian inference. Partially specified probability models, which are defined only by specifying means and variances, are…

The new class of Markov processes is proposed to realize the flexible shrinkage effects for the dynamic models. The transition density of the new process consists of two penalty functions, similarly to Bayesian fused LASSO in its functional…

Consider a problem of predicting a response variable using a set of covariates in a linear regression model. If it is \emph{a priori} known or suspected that a subset of the covariates do not significantly contribute to the overall fit of…

This work affords new insights into Bayesian CART in the context of structured wavelet shrinkage. The main thrust is to develop a formal inferential framework for Bayesian tree-based regression. We reframe Bayesian CART as a g-type prior…

Robust Bayesian methods for high-dimensional regression problems under diverse sparse regimes are studied. Traditional shrinkage priors are primarily designed to detect a handful of signals from tens of thousands of predictors in the…

The horseshoe prior has proven to be a noteworthy alternative for sparse Bayesian estimation, but as shown in this paper, the results can be sensitive to the prior choice for the global shrinkage hyperparameter. We argue that the previous…

We focus on the increasingly important area of sparse regression problems where there are many variables and the effects of a large subset of these are negligible. This paper describes the construction of hierarchical prior distributions…

In the present work, we consider variable selection and shrinkage for the Gaussian dynamic linear regression within a Bayesian framework. In particular, we propose a novel method that allows for time-varying sparsity, based on an extension…

We propose a novel approach to perform approximate Bayesian inference in complex models such as Bayesian neural networks. The approach is more scalable to large data than Markov Chain Monte Carlo, it embraces more expressive models than…

We develop a Bayesian framework for variable selection in linear regression with autocorrelated errors, accommodating lagged covariates and autoregressive structures. This setting occurs in time series applications where responses depend on…

Prior Networks are a recently developed class of models which yield interpretable measures of uncertainty and have been shown to outperform state-of-the-art ensemble approaches on a range of tasks. They can also be used to distill an…

Most deep latent factor models choose simple priors for simplicity, tractability or not knowing what prior to use. Recent studies show that the choice of the prior may have a profound effect on the expressiveness of the model,especially…

Standard autoregressive seq2seq models are easily trained by max-likelihood, but tend to show poor results under small-data conditions. We introduce a class of seq2seq models, GAMs (Global Autoregressive Models), which combine an…

In this paper, we consider Bayesian variable selection problem of linear regression model with global-local shrinkage priors on the regression coefficients. We propose a variable selection procedure that select a variable if the ratio of…

Autoregressive (AR) time series models are widely used in parametric spectral estimation (SE), where the power spectral density (PSD) of the time series is approximated by that of the \emph{best-fit} AR model, which is available in closed…

We propose a new approach to mixed-frequency regressions in a high-dimensional environment that resorts to Group Lasso penalization and Bayesian techniques for estimation and inference. In particular, to improve the prediction properties of…

In this paper we adopt the familiar sparse, high-dimensional linear regression model and focus on the important but often overlooked task of prediction. In particular, we consider a new empirical Bayes framework that incorporates data in…