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Deep neural networks are often ignorant about what they do not know and overconfident when they make uninformed predictions. Some recent approaches quantify classification uncertainty directly by training the model to output high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-09 Murat Sensoy , Lance Kaplan , Federico Cerutti , Maryam Saleki

We study the problem of efficiently producing, in an online fashion, generative models of scalar, multiclass, and vector-valued outcomes that cannot be falsified on the basis of the observed data and a pre-specified collection of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-26 Gabriele Farina , Juan Carlos Perdomo

We introduce a framework for Thompson sampling (TS) contextual bandit algorithms, in which the algorithm's ability to quantify uncertainty and make decisions depends on the quality of a generative model that is learned offline. Instead of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-13 Kelly W. Zhang , Tiffany Tianhui Cai , Hongseok Namkoong , Daniel Russo

Efficient exploration remains a challenging problem in reinforcement learning, especially for those tasks where rewards from environments are sparse. A commonly used approach for exploring such environments is to introduce some "intrinsic"…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-16 Neale Ratzlaff , Qinxun Bai , Li Fuxin , Wei Xu

We develop a generative model-based approach to Bayesian inverse problems, such as image reconstruction from noisy and incomplete images. Our framework addresses two common challenges of Bayesian reconstructions: 1) It makes use of complex,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-24 Vanessa Böhm , François Lanusse , Uroš Seljak

We consider online learning problems under a partial observability model capturing situations where the information conveyed to the learner is between full information and bandit feedback. In the simplest variant, we assume that in addition…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Tomas Kocak , Gergely Neu , Michal Valko , Remi Munos

Most machine learning techniques are based upon statistical learning theory, often simplified for the sake of computing speed. This paper is focused on the uncertainty aspect of mathematical modeling in machine learning. Regression analysis…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-07 Valentin Arkov

Order-Agnostic autoregressive models have demonstrated strong performance in deep generative modeling, yet their use in settings with incomplete data remains largely unexplored. In this work, we reinterpret them through the lens of missing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Ignacio Peis , Pablo M. Olmos , Jes Frellsen

Model based predictions of future trajectories of a dynamical system often suffer from inaccuracies, forcing model based control algorithms to re-plan often, thus being computationally expensive, suboptimal and not reliable. In this work,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-12-11 Norman Di Palo , Harri Valpola

Uncertainty Sampling is an Active Learning strategy that aims to improve the data efficiency of machine learning models by iteratively acquiring labels of data points with the highest uncertainty. While it has proven effective for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-28 Dominik Fuchsgruber , Tom Wollschläger , Bertrand Charpentier , Antonio Oroz , Stephan Günnemann

While generative models have become increasingly prevalent across various domains, fundamental concerns regarding their reliability persist. A crucial yet understudied aspect of these models is the uncertainty quantification surrounding…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-17 Giorgio Morales , Frederic Jurie , Jalal Fadili

Exploration is a key challenge in Reinforcement Learning, especially in long-horizon, deceptive and sparse-reward environments. For such applications, population-based approaches have proven effective. Methods such as Quality-Diversity…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2022-11-24 Bryan Lim , Manon Flageat , Antoine Cully

Uncertainty quantification is crucial in safety-critical systems, where decisions must be made under uncertainty. In particular, we consider the problem of online uncertainty quantification, where data points arrive sequentially. Online…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Junyoung Yang , Kyungmin Kim , Sangdon Park

Applications of large language models often involve the generation of free-form responses, in which case uncertainty quantification becomes challenging. This is due to the need to identify task-specific uncertainties (e.g., about the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-21 Ziyu Wang , Chris Holmes

Neural networks have proven successful at learning from complex data distributions by acting as universal function approximators. However, they are often overconfident in their predictions, which leads to inaccurate and miscalibrated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-23 Jeffrey Willette , Juho Lee , Sung Ju Hwang

Autoregressive processes naturally arise in a large variety of real-world scenarios, including stock markets, sales forecasting, weather prediction, advertising, and pricing. When facing a sequential decision-making problem in such a…

Assessing uncertainty is an important step towards ensuring the safety and reliability of machine learning systems. Existing uncertainty estimation techniques may fail when their modeling assumptions are not met, e.g. when the data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-01-24 Volodymyr Kuleshov , Stefano Ermon

Sequential decision-making is central to sustainable agricultural management and precision agriculture, where resource inputs must be optimized under uncertainty and over time. However, such decisions must often be made with limited…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-24 Sakshi Arya , Wentao Lin

Many active learning methods belong to the retraining-based approaches, which select one unlabeled instance, add it to the training set with its possible labels, retrain the classification model, and evaluate the criteria that we base our…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-03-01 Yazhou Yang , Marco Loog

Uncertainty sampling is a prevalent active learning algorithm that queries sequentially the annotations of data samples which the current prediction model is uncertain about. However, the usage of uncertainty sampling has been largely…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-08 Shang Liu , Xiaocheng Li
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