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Existing approaches to model uncertainty typically either compare models using a quantitative model selection criterion or evaluate posterior model probabilities having set a prior. In this paper, we propose an alternative strategy which…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-26 Vik Shirvaikar , Stephen G. Walker , Chris Holmes

State-of-the-art machine learning models require access to significant amount of annotated data in order to achieve the desired level of performance. While unlabelled data can be largely available and even abundant, annotation process can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-15 Rahaf Aljundi , Nikolay Chumerin , Daniel Olmeda Reino

Knowledge Tracing (KT) aims to predict students' future performances based on their former exercises and additional information in educational settings. KT has received significant attention since it facilitates personalized experiences in…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-02-18 Hao Zhou , Wenge Rong , Jianfei Zhang , Qing Sun , Yuanxin Ouyang , Zhang Xiong

To provide rigorous uncertainty quantification for online learning models, we develop a framework for constructing uncertainty sets that provably control risk -- such as coverage of confidence intervals, false negative rate, or F1 score --…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-30 Shai Feldman , Liran Ringel , Stephen Bates , Yaniv Romano

Existing approaches of prescriptive analytics -- where inputs of an optimization model can be predicted by leveraging covariates in a machine learning model -- often attempt to optimize the mean value of an uncertain objective. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-05 Dimitris Bertsimas , Benjamin Boucher

The effectiveness of model training heavily relies on the quality of available training resources. However, budget constraints often impose limitations on data collection efforts. To tackle this challenge, we introduce causal exploration in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-31 Yupei Yang , Biwei Huang , Shikui Tu , Lei Xu

Intelligent agents must be able to articulate its own uncertainty. In this work, we show that pre-trained sequence models are naturally capable of probabilistic reasoning over exchangeable data points -- forming informed beliefs and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-02 Naimeng Ye , Hongseok Namkoong

We consider the problem of online learning where the sequence of actions played by the learner must adhere to an unknown safety constraint at every round. The goal is to minimize regret with respect to the best safe action in hindsight…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-08 Karthik Sridharan , Seung Won Wilson Yoo

Currently, various uncertainty quantification methods have been proposed to provide certainty and probability estimates for deep learning models' label predictions. Meanwhile, with the growing demand for the right to be forgotten, machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-12 Wei Qian , Chenxu Zhao , Yangyi Li , Wenqian Ye , Mengdi Huai

For many practical, high-risk applications, it is essential to quantify uncertainty in a model's predictions to avoid costly mistakes. While predictive uncertainty is widely studied for neural networks, the topic seems to be under-explored…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-05 Andrey Malinin , Liudmila Prokhorenkova , Aleksei Ustimenko

Learning, whether natural or artificial, is a process of selection. It starts with a set of candidate options and selects the more successful ones. In the case of machine learning the selection is done based on empirical estimates of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-30 Yevgeny Seldin

With the wide adoption of machine learning techniques, requirements have evolved beyond sheer high performance, often requiring models to be trustworthy. A common approach to increase the trustworthiness of such systems is to allow them to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-16 Andrea Pugnana , Carlos Mougan , Dan Saattrup Nielsen

Active perception approaches select future viewpoints by using some estimate of the information gain. An inaccurate estimate can be detrimental in critical situations, e.g., locating a person in distress. However the true information gained…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-04-17 Siming He , Yuezhan Tao , Igor Spasojevic , Vijay Kumar , Pratik Chaudhari

We present an end-to-end procedure for embodied exploration inspired by two biological computations: predictive coding and uncertainty minimization. The procedure can be applied to exploration settings in a task-independent and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-14 Abdelrahman Sharafeldin , Nabil Imam , Hannah Choi

Retrieval augmented Question Answering (QA) helps QA models overcome knowledge gaps by incorporating retrieved evidence, typically a set of passages, alongside the question at test time. Previous studies show that this approach improves QA…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-12 Laura Perez-Beltrachini , Mirella Lapata

Autoregressive generation lies at the heart of the mechanism of large language models. It can be viewed as the repeated application of a next-token generator: starting from an input string (prompt), the generator is applied for $M$ steps,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Ilan Doron-Arad , Idan Mehalel , Elchanan Mossel

Robots can rapidly acquire new skills from demonstrations. However, during generalisation of skills or transitioning across fundamentally different skills, it is unclear whether the robot has the necessary knowledge to perform the task.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-08-08 Nutan Chen , Alexej Klushyn , Alexandros Paraschos , Djalel Benbouzid , Patrick van der Smagt

We study the problem of exploration in Reinforcement Learning and present a novel model-free solution. We adopt an information-theoretical viewpoint and start from the instance-specific lower bound of the number of samples that have to be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-02 Alessio Russo , Alexandre Proutiere

Deep learning has achieved impressive performance on many tasks in recent years. However, it has been found that it is still not enough for deep neural networks to provide only point estimates. For high-risk tasks, we need to assess the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-28 Yuandu Lai , Yucheng Shi , Yahong Han , Yunfeng Shao , Meiyu Qi , Bingshuai Li

Existing grasp prediction approaches are mostly based on offline learning, while, ignoring the exploratory grasp learning during online adaptation to new picking scenarios, i.e., objects that are unseen or out-of-domain (OOD), camera and…