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Many causal and structural effects depend on regressions. Examples include policy effects, average derivatives, regression decompositions, average treatment effects, causal mediation, and parameters of economic structural models. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-10-25 Victor Chernozhukov , Whitney K Newey , Rahul Singh

Larger models often outperform smaller ones but come with high computational costs. Cascading offers a potential solution. By default, it uses smaller models and defers only some instances to larger, more powerful models. However, designing…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-02-19 António Farinhas , Nuno M. Guerreiro , Sweta Agrawal , Ricardo Rei , André F. T. Martins

Prediction and causal explanation are fundamentally distinct tasks of data analysis. In health applications, this difference can be understood in terms of the difference between prognosis (prediction) and prevention/treatment (causal…

Machine learning models have had discernible achievements in a myriad of applications. However, most of these models are black-boxes, and it is obscure how the decisions are made by them. This makes the models unreliable and untrustworthy.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-23 Raha Moraffah , Mansooreh Karami , Ruocheng Guo , Adrienne Raglin , Huan Liu

Robots working in real environments need to adapt to unexpected changes to avoid failures. This is an open and complex challenge that requires robots to timely predict and identify the causes of failures to prevent them. In this paper, we…

Robotics · Computer Science 2022-09-13 Maximilian Diehl , Karinne Ramirez-Amaro

In this paper, we consider a setting where heterogeneous agents with connectivity are performing inference using unlabeled streaming data. Observed data are only partially informative about the target variable of interest. In order to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-28 Mert Kayaalp , Yunus Inan , Visa Koivunen , Ali H. Sayed

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such,…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-12-21 Yiyan Huang , Cheuk Hang Leung , Xing Yan , Qi Wu , Nanbo Peng , Dongdong Wang , Zhixiang Huang

In the automotive industry, the full cycle of managing in-use vehicle quality issues can take weeks to investigate. The process involves isolating root causes, defining and implementing appropriate treatments, and refining treatments if…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-04-12 Qian Wang , Huanyi Shui , Thi Tu Trinh Tran , Milad Zafar Nezhad , Devesh Upadhyay , Kamran Paynabar , Anqi He

Integrating expert knowledge, e.g. from large language models, into causal discovery algorithms can be challenging when the knowledge is not guaranteed to be correct. Expert recommendations may contradict data-driven results, and their…

This work shows how to leverage causal inference to understand the behavior of complex learning systems interacting with their environment and predict the consequences of changes to the system. Such predictions allow both humans and…

Large language models (LLMs), despite their remarkable capabilities, are susceptible to generating biased and discriminatory responses. As LLMs increasingly influence high-stakes decision-making (e.g., hiring and healthcare), mitigating…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Jingling Li , Zeyu Tang , Xiaoyu Liu , Peter Spirtes , Kun Zhang , Liu Leqi , Yang Liu

Randomized experiments are a powerful methodology for data-driven evaluation of decisions or interventions. Yet, their validity may be undermined by network interference. This occurs when the treatment of one unit impacts not only its…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-08 Sadegh Shirani , Mohsen Bayati

Causal inference is central to many areas of artificial intelligence, including complex reasoning, planning, knowledge-base construction, robotics, explanation, and fairness. An active community of researchers develops and enhances…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-11-05 Amanda Gentzel , Dan Garant , David Jensen

In recent years, there has been increasing interest in causal reasoning for designing fair decision-making systems due to its compatibility with legal frameworks, interpretability for human stakeholders, and robustness to spurious…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-27 Aida Rahmattalabi , Alice Xiang

Estimating individualized treatment effects from observational data presents a persistent challenge due to unmeasured confounding and structural bias. Causal Machine Learning (causal ML) methods, such as causal trees and doubly robust…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-12 Po-Han Lee , Yu-Cheng Lin , Chan-Tung Ku , Chan Hsu , Pei-Cing Huang , Ping-Hsun Wu , Yihuang Kang

The impact of machine learning models on healthcare will depend on the degree of trust that healthcare professionals place in the predictions made by these models. In this paper, we present a method to provide people with clinical expertise…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-05 Aniruddh Raghu , John Guttag , Katherine Young , Eugene Pomerantsev , Adrian V. Dalca , Collin M. Stultz

This PhD thesis investigates the societal impact of machine learning (ML). ML increasingly informs consequential decisions and recommendations, significantly affecting many aspects of our lives. As these data-driven systems are often…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-29 Joachim Baumann

Monitoring machine learning (ML) systems is hard, with standard practice focusing on detecting distribution shifts rather than their causes. Root-cause analysis often relies on manual tracing to determine whether a shift is caused by…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Joran Leest , Ilias Gerostathopoulos , Patricia Lago , Claudia Raibulet

Causal representation learning (CRL) enhances machine learning models' robustness and generalizability by learning structural causal models associated with data-generating processes. We focus on a family of CRL methods that uses contrastive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-17 Xiusi Li , Sékou-Oumar Kaba , Siamak Ravanbakhsh

Deep learning time-series models are often used to make forecasts that inform downstream decisions. Since these decisions can differ from those in the training set, there is an implicit requirement that time-series models will generalize…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-04 Thomas Crasson , Yacine Nabet , Mathias Lécuyer