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Tracing Distribution Shifts with Causal System Maps

Software Engineering 2025-10-28 v1

Abstract

Monitoring machine learning (ML) systems is hard, with standard practice focusing on detecting distribution shifts rather than their causes. Root-cause analysis often relies on manual tracing to determine whether a shift is caused by software faults, data-quality issues, or natural change. We propose ML System Maps -- causal maps that, through layered views, make explicit the propagation paths between the environment and the ML system's internals, enabling systematic attribution of distribution shifts. We outline the approach and a research agenda for its development and evaluation.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2510.23528,
  title  = {Tracing Distribution Shifts with Causal System Maps},
  author = {Joran Leest and Ilias Gerostathopoulos and Patricia Lago and Claudia Raibulet},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2510.23528},
  year   = {2025}
}
R2 v1 2026-07-01T07:08:00.882Z