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Conformal prediction (CP) has been a popular method for uncertainty quantification because it is distribution-free, model-agnostic, and theoretically sound. For forecasting problems in supervised learning, most CP methods focus on building…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-24 Chen Xu , Hanyang Jiang , Yao Xie

We introduce a framework for robust uncertainty quantification in situations where labeled training data are corrupted, through noisy or missing labels. We build on conformal prediction, a statistical tool for generating prediction sets…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-27 Shai Feldman , Stephen Bates , Yaniv Romano

Conformal prediction (CP) offers a principled framework for uncertainty quantification, but it fails to guarantee coverage when faced with missing covariates. In addressing the heterogeneity induced by various missing patterns,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-17 Jiarong Fan , Juhyun Park. Thi Phuong Thuy Vo , Nicolas Brunel

Conformal Prediction is a widely studied technique to construct prediction sets of future observations. Most conformal prediction methods focus on achieving the necessary coverage guarantees, but do not provide formal guarantees on the size…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Chao Gao , Liren Shan , Vaidehi Srinivas , Aravindan Vijayaraghavan

Anytime inference requires a model to make a progression of predictions which might be halted at any time. Prior research on anytime visual recognition has mostly focused on image classification. We propose the first unified and end-to-end…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-04-26 Zhuang Liu , Zhiqiu Xu , Hung-Ju Wang , Trevor Darrell , Evan Shelhamer

Conformal prediction has shown spurring performance in constructing statistically rigorous prediction sets for arbitrary black-box machine learning models, assuming the data is exchangeable. However, even small adversarial perturbations…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-19 Mintong Kang , Nezihe Merve Gürel , Linyi Li , Bo Li

In clinical applications, the utility of segmentation models is often based on the accuracy of derived downstream metrics such as organ size, rather than by the pixel-level accuracy of the segmentation masks themselves. Thus, uncertainty…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-03-03 Matt Y. Cheung , Ashok Veeraraghavan , Guha Balakrishnan

Conformal prediction is a popular uncertainty quantification method that augments a base predictor to return sets of predictions with statistically valid coverage guarantees. However, current methods are often computationally expensive and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-05 Laura Lützow , Michael Eichelbeck , Mykel J. Kochenderfer , Matthias Althoff

Conformal Prediction (CP) serves as a robust framework that quantifies uncertainty in predictions made by Machine Learning (ML) models. Unlike traditional point predictors, CP generates statistically valid prediction regions, also known as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-29 A. A. Balinsky , A. D. Balinsky

With the advancement of Internet of Things (IoT) technologies, high-precision indoor positioning has become essential for Location-Based Services (LBS) in complex indoor environments. Fingerprint-based localization is popular, but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-06 Zhiyi Zhou , Hexin Peng , Hongyu Long

In many classification applications, the prediction of a deep neural network (DNN) based classifier needs to be accompanied by some confidence indication. Two popular approaches for that aim are: 1) Calibration: modifies the classifier's…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-03 Lahav Dabah , Tom Tirer

Trustworthy decision making in networked, dynamic environments calls for innovative uncertainty quantification substrates in predictive models for graph time series. Existing conformal prediction (CP) methods have been applied separately to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-14 Sonakshi Dua , Gonzalo Mateos , Sundeep Prabhakar Chepuri

The rapid growth of AI applications is dramatically increasing data center energy demand, exacerbating carbon emissions, and necessitating a shift towards 24/7 carbon-free energy (CFE). Unlike traditional annual energy matching, 24/7 CFE…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-10-07 Yijie Yang , Jian Shi , Dan Wang , Chenye Wu , Zhu Han

Deep learning models are being adopted and applied on various critical decision-making tasks, yet they are trained to provide point predictions without providing degrees of confidence. The trustworthiness of deep learning models can be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-28 Daniel Nolte , Souparno Ghosh , Ranadip Pal

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free technique for establishing valid prediction intervals. Although conventionally people conduct conformal prediction in the output space, this is not the only possibility. In this paper, we propose…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-11 Jiaye Teng , Chuan Wen , Dinghuai Zhang , Yoshua Bengio , Yang Gao , Yang Yuan

Conformal prediction is a popular method to construct prediction intervals with marginal coverage guarantees from black-box machine learning models. In applications with potentially high-impact events, such as flooding or financial crises,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-02 Olivier C. Pasche , Henry Lam , Sebastian Engelke

Given that machine learning algorithms are increasingly being deployed to aid in high stakes decision-making, uncertainty quantification methods that wrap around these black box models such as conformal prediction have received much…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-09 Kayla E. Scharfstein , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

The reliable deployment of deep learning in medical imaging requires uncertainty quantification that provides rigorous error guarantees while remaining anatomically meaningful. Conformal prediction (CP) is a powerful distribution-free…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-01-28 Mélanie Gaillochet , Christian Desrosiers , Hervé Lombaert

The conformalClassification package implements Transductive Conformal Prediction (TCP) and Inductive Conformal Prediction (ICP) for classification problems. Conformal Prediction (CP) is a framework that complements the predictions of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-04-17 Niharika Gauraha , Ola Spjuth

Conformal prediction methodologies have significantly advanced the quantification of uncertainties in predictive models. Yet, the construction of confidence regions for model parameters presents a notable challenge, often necessitating…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-30 Charles Guille-Escuret , Eugene Ndiaye
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