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Uncertainty quantification of causal effects is crucial for safety-critical applications such as personalized medicine. A powerful approach for this is conformal prediction, which has several practical benefits due to model-agnostic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-04 Maresa Schröder , Dennis Frauen , Jonas Schweisthal , Konstantin Heß , Valentyn Melnychuk , Stefan Feuerriegel

This paper studies the use of conformal prediction (CP), an emerging probabilistic forecasting method, for day-ahead photovoltaic power predictions to enhance participation in electricity markets. First, machine learning models are used to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-01 Yvet Renkema , Nico Brinkel , Tarek Alskaif

Conformal prediction is a powerful tool to generate uncertainty sets with guaranteed coverage using any predictive model, under the assumption that the training and test data are i.i.d.. Recently, it has been shown that adversarial examples…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-01 Ge Yan , Yaniv Romano , Tsui-Wei Weng

Safety is a critical concern in learning-enabled autonomous systems especially when deploying these systems in real-world scenarios. An important challenge is accurately quantifying the uncertainty of unknown models to generate provably…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-03-25 Hao Zhou , Yanze Zhang , Wenhao Luo

Conformal prediction is a powerful tool for constructing prediction intervals for black-box models, providing a finite sample coverage guarantee for exchangeable data. However, this exchangeability is compromised when some entries of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-09 Qian Peng , Yajie Bao , Haojie Ren , Zhaojun Wang , Changliang Zou

Conformal prediction is a statistical tool for producing prediction regions of machine learning models that are valid with high probability. However, applying conformal prediction to time series data leads to conservative prediction…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-01-10 Matthew Cleaveland , Insup Lee , George J. Pappas , Lars Lindemann

We extend our previous work on Inductive Conformal Prediction (ICP) for multi-label text classification and present a novel approach for addressing the computational inefficiency of the Label Powerset (LP) ICP, arrising when dealing with a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-18 Lysimachos Maltoudoglou , Andreas Paisios , Ladislav Lenc , Jiří Martínek , Pavel Král , Harris Papadopoulos

Volumetry is one of the principal downstream applications of 3D medical image segmentation, for example, to detect abnormal tissue growth or for surgery planning. Conformal Prediction is a promising framework for uncertainty quantification,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-07-30 Benjamin Lambert , Florence Forbes , Senan Doyle , Michel Dojat

Conformal prediction is an emerging technique for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true label with a predefined probability. Previous works often employ temperature scaling to calibrate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-24 Huajun Xi , Jianguo Huang , Kangdao Liu , Lei Feng , Hongxin Wei

Calibration is crucial in deep learning applications, especially in fields like healthcare and autonomous driving, where accurate confidence estimates are vital for decision-making. However, deep neural networks often suffer from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-17 Linwei Tao , Haolan Guo , Minjing Dong , Chang Xu

Spectral Clustering(SC) is a prominent data clustering technique of recent times which has attracted much attention from researchers. It is a highly data-driven method and makes no strict assumptions on the structure of the data to be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-18 Lalith Srikanth Chintalapati , Raghunatha Sarma Rachakonda

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a widely used technique for quantifying uncertainty in machine learning models. In its standard form, CP offers probabilistic guarantees on the coverage of the true label, but it is agnostic to sensitive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Anutam Srinivasan , Aditya T. Vadlamani , Amin Meghrazi , Srinivasan Parthasarathy

Conformal prediction is a statistically rigorous method for quantifying uncertainty in models by having them output sets of predictions, with larger sets indicating more uncertainty. However, prediction sets are not inherently actionable;…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-17 Jesse C. Cresswell , Bhargava Kumar , Yi Sui , Mouloud Belbahri

Machine learning has become an effective tool for automatically annotating unstructured data (e.g., images) with structured labels (e.g., object detections). As a result, a new programming paradigm called neurosymbolic programming has…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2024-05-28 Ramya Ramalingam , Sangdon Park , Osbert Bastani

Conformal predictive systems are sets of predictive distributions with theoretical out-of-sample calibration guarantees. The calibration guarantees are typically that the set of predictions contains a forecast distribution whose prediction…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-03 Sam Allen , Enrico Pescara , Johanna Ziegel

This work introduces a novel methodology for assessing catastrophic forgetting (CF) in continual learning. We propose a new conformal prediction (CP)-based metric, termed the Conformal Prediction Confidence Factor (CPCF), to quantify and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-19 Ioannis Pitsiorlas , Nour Jamoussi , Marios Kountouris

Machine learning classification tasks often benefit from predicting a set of possible labels with confidence scores to capture uncertainty. However, existing methods struggle with the high-dimensional nature of the data and the lack of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-08 Rui Luo , Zhixin Zhou

Depression has been a leading cause of mental-health illnesses across the world. While the loss of lives due to unmanaged depression is a subject of attention, so is the lack of diagnostic tests and subjectivity involved. Using behavioural…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-10-07 Shivani Shimpi , Shyam Thombre , Snehal Reddy , Ritik Sharma , Srijan Singh

When a machine learning model is deployed, its predictions can alter its environment, as better informed agents strategize to suit their own interests. With such alterations in mind, existing approaches to uncertainty quantification break.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-05 Daniel Csillag , Claudio José Struchiner , Guilherme Tegoni Goedert

Depth measures have gained popularity in the statistical literature for defining level sets in complex data structures like multivariate data, functional data, and graphs. Despite their versatility, integrating depth measures into…

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