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The stratified proportional hazards model represents a simple solution to account for heterogeneity within the data while keeping the multiplicative effect on the hazard function. Strata are typically defined a priori by resorting to the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-18 Riccardo Corradin , Luis Enrique Nieto-Barajas , Bernardo Nipoti

This paper focuses on the Bayesian Network Propensity Score (BNPS), a novel approach for estimating treatment effects in observational studies characterized by unknown (and likely unbalanced) designs and complex dependency structures among…

Selection of covariates is crucial in the estimation of average treatment effects given observational data with high or even ultra-high dimensional pretreatment variables. Existing methods for this problem typically assume sparse linear…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-20 Juan Chen , Yingchun Zhou

We develop a Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) approach to evaluate the causal effect of treatment in a randomized trial where a nonterminal event may be censored by a terminal event, but not vice versa (i.e., semi-competing risks). Based on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-23 Yanxun Xu , Daniel Scharfstein , Peter Müller , Michael Daniels

Estimating treatment effects for subgroups defined by post-treatment behavior (i.e., estimating causal effects in a principal stratification framework) can be technically challenging and heavily reliant on strong assumptions. We investigate…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-08-17 Luke Miratrix , Jane Furey , Avi Feller , Todd Grindal , Lindsay C. Page

We establish concentration rates for estimation of treatment effects in experiments that incorporate prior sources of information -- such as past pilots, related studies, or expert assessments -- whose external validity is uncertain. Each…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-24 Frederico Finan , Demian Pouzo

Causal inference in the presence of intermediate variables is a challenging problem in many applications. Principal stratification (PS) provides a framework to estimate principal causal effects (PCE) in such settings. However, existing PS…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-20 Lei Yang , Michael J. Daniels , Fan Li

Participants in longitudinal studies on the effects of drug treatment and criminal justice system interventions are at high risk for institutionalization (e.g., spending time in an environment where their freedom to use drugs, commit…

Applications · Statistics 2008-11-13 Beth Ann Griffin , Daniel F. McCaffrey , Andrew R. Morral

We develop a Gaussian-process mixture model for heterogeneous treatment effect estimation that leverages the use of transformed outcomes. The approach we will present attempts to improve point estimation and uncertainty quantification…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-19 Abbas Zaidi , Sayan Mukherjee

We propose a new Bayesian non-parametric (BNP) method for estimating the causal effects of mediation in the presence of a post-treatment confounder. We specify an enriched Dirichlet process mixture (EDPM) to model the joint distribution of…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-10 Woojung Bae , Michael J. Daniels , Michael G. Perri

In most real-world systems units are interconnected and can be represented as networks consisting of nodes and edges. For instance, in social systems individuals can have social ties, family or financial relationships. In settings where…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-31 Laura Forastiere , Fabrizia Mealli , Albert Wu , Edoardo Airoldi

Causal effect estimation is important for many tasks in the natural and social sciences. We design algorithms for the continuous partial identification problem: bounding the effects of multivariate, continuous treatments when unmeasured…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-18 Kirtan Padh , Jakob Zeitler , David Watson , Matt Kusner , Ricardo Silva , Niki Kilbertus

Instrumental variable methods are fundamental to causal inference when treatment assignment is confounded by unobserved variables. In this article, we develop a general nonparametric causal framework for identification and learning with…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-10 Shuyuan Chen , Peng Zhang , Yifan Cui

Unmeasured confounding presents a significant challenge in causal inference from observational studies. Classical approaches often rely on collecting proxy variables, such as instrumental variables. However, in applications where the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-16 Xiaochuan Shi , Dehan Kong , Linbo Wang

Estimating treatment effects from observational data is challenging due to two main reasons: (a) hidden confounding, and (b) covariate mismatch (control and treatment groups not having identical distributions). Long lines of works exist…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-30 Praharsh Nanavati , Ranjitha Prasad , Karthikeyan Shanmugam

Causal inference, estimating causal effects from observational data, is a fundamental tool in many disciplines. Of particular importance across a variety of domains is the continuous treatment setting, where the variable of intervention has…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Christopher Stith , Medha Barath , Vahid Balazadeh , Jesse C. Cresswell , Rahul G. Krishnan

In causal inference, it is common to estimate the causal effect of a single treatment variable on an outcome. However, practitioners may also be interested in the effect of simultaneous interventions on multiple covariates of a fixed target…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-24 Jaime Roquero Gimenez , Dominik Rothenhäusler

A Bayesian multivariate model with a structured covariance matrix for multi-way nested data is proposed. This flexible modeling framework allows for positive and for negative associations among clustered observations, and generalizes the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-27 Stef Baas , Richard J. Boucherie , Jean-Paul Fox

Inferring causal effects of continuous-valued treatments from observational data is a crucial task promising to better inform policy- and decision-makers. A critical assumption needed to identify these effects is that all confounding…

Recent research in causal inference has made important progress in addressing challenges to the external validity of trial findings. Such methods weight trial participant data to more closely resemble the distribution of effect-modifying…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-18 Justin M. Clark , Kollin W. Rott , James S. Hodges , Jared D. Huling