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In the context of principal components analysis (PCA), the bootstrap is commonly applied to solve a variety of inference problems, such as constructing confidence intervals for the eigenvalues of the population covariance matrix $\Sigma$.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-02-17 Junwen Yao , Miles E. Lopes

We provide finite sample bounds on the Normal approximation to the law of the least squares estimator of the projection parameters normalized by the sandwich-based standard errors. Our results hold in the increasing dimension setting and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-10-25 Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla , Alessandro Rinaldo , Larry Wasserman

We propose a multilevel stochastic approximation (MLSA) scheme for the computation of the value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) of a financial loss, which can only be computed via simulations conditionally on the realisation of…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-04-14 Stéphane Crépey , Noufel Frikha , Azar Louzi

We study maximum likelihood estimation for spatial generalized linear mixed models with Gaussian process approximations using a stochastic Newton-Raphson algorithm. We consider two Gaussian Process approximations in this context: spectral…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-19 Samuel I. Watson , Yixin Wang , Emanuele Giorgi

Many machine learning and optimization algorithms can be cast as instances of stochastic approximation (SA). The convergence rate of these algorithms is known to be slow, with the optimal mean squared error (MSE) of order $O(n^{-1})$. In…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-09-13 Caio Kalil Lauand , Sean Meyn

The linearized-Laplace approximation (LLA) has been shown to be effective and efficient in constructing Bayesian neural networks. It is theoretically compelling since it can be seen as a Gaussian process posterior with the mean function…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-13 Agustinus Kristiadi , Alexander Immer , Runa Eschenhagen , Vincent Fortuin

We study pathwise approximation of scalar stochastic differential equations at a single time point or globally in time by means of methods that are based on finitely many observations of the driving Brownian motion. We prove lower error…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-10-25 Mario Hefter , André Herzwurm , Thomas Müller-Gronbach

I propose a nonparametric iid bootstrap procedure for the empirical likelihood, the exponential tilting, and the exponentially tilted empirical likelihood estimators that achieves asymptotic refinements for t tests and confidence intervals,…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-03 Seojeong Lee

Large Language Models usually put more emphasis on accuracy and therefore, will guess even when not certain about the prediction, which is especially severe when fine-tuned on small datasets due to the inherent tendency toward…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-16 Moule Lin , Shuhao Guan , Andrea Patane , David Gregg , Goetz Botterweck

This work analyzes the stochastic approximation algorithm with non-decaying gains as applied in time-varying problems. The setting is to minimize a sequence of scalar-valued loss functions $f_k(\cdot)$ at sampling times $\tau_k$ or to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-03-18 Jingyi Zhu

Given an ODE and its perturbation, the Alekseev formula expresses the solutions of the latter in terms related to the former. By exploiting this formula and a new concentration inequality for martingale-differences, we develop a novel…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-04-02 Gugan Thoppe , Vivek S. Borkar

We revisit the sample average approximation (SAA) approach for non-convex stochastic programming. We show that applying the SAA approach to problems with expected value equality constraints does not necessarily result in asymptotic…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-07-16 Thomas Lew , Riccardo Bonalli , Marco Pavone

In this paper we revisit the weighted likelihood bootstrap, a method that generates samples from an approximate Bayesian posterior of a parametric model. We show that the same method can be derived, without approximation, under a Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-23 Simon Lyddon , Chris Holmes , Stephen Walker

This study focuses on finite-sample inference on the non-linear Bures-Wasserstein manifold and introduces a generalized bootstrap procedure for estimating Bures-Wasserstein barycenters. We provide non-asymptotic statistical guarantees for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-11-26 Alexey Kroshnin , Vladimir Spokoiny , Alexandra Suvorikova

Constant-stepsize stochastic approximation (SA) is widely used in learning for computational efficiency. For a fixed stepsize, the iterates typically admit a stationary distribution that is rarely tractable. Prior work shows that as the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Zedong Wang , Yuyang Wang , Ijay Narang , Felix Wang , Yuzhou Wang , Siva Theja Maguluri

Accurate statistical inference in logistic regression models remains a critical challenge when the ratio between the number of parameters and sample size is not negligible. This is because approximations based on either classical asymptotic…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-19 Qian Zhao , Emmanuel J. Candes

The problem of constructing a simultaneous confidence surface for the 2-dimensional mean function of a non-stationary functional time series is challenging as these bands can not be built on classical limit theory for the maximum absolute…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-11-27 Holger Dette , Weichi Wu

We propose multiplier bootstrap procedures for nonparametric inference and uncertainty quantification of the target mean function, based on a novel framework of integrating target and source data. We begin with the relatively easier…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-06 Zuofeng Shang , Peijun Sang , Chong Jin

We study stochastic approximation algorithms with Markovian noise and constant step-size $\alpha$. We develop a method based on infinitesimal generator comparisons to study the bias of the algorithm, which is the expected difference between…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-28 Sebastian Allmeier , Nicolas Gast

We analyse and explain the increased generalisation performance of iterate averaging using a Gaussian process perturbation model between the true and batch risk surface on the high dimensional quadratic. We derive three phenomena…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-11-02 Diego Granziol , Xingchen Wan , Samuel Albanie , Stephen Roberts