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Conditional density estimation is a general framework for solving various problems in machine learning. Among existing methods, non-parametric and/or kernel-based methods are often difficult to use on large datasets, while methods based on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-06 Hiroaki Sasaki , Aapo Hyvärinen

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have been long considered an ideal, yet unscalable solution for improving the robustness and the predictive uncertainty of deep neural networks. While they could capture more accurately the posterior…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-03-26 Gianni Franchi , Andrei Bursuc , Emanuel Aldea , Severine Dubuisson , Isabelle Bloch

Deep neural network models represent the state-of-the-art methodologies for natural language processing. Here we build on top of these methodologies to incorporate temporal information and model how to review data changes with time.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-11 Kostadin Cvejoski , Ramses J. Sanchez , Bogdan Georgiev , Christian Bauckhage , Cesar Ojeda

Neural-net-induced Gaussian process (NNGP) regression inherits both the high expressivity of deep neural networks (deep NNs) as well as the uncertainty quantification property of Gaussian processes (GPs). We generalize the current NNGP to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-27 Guofei Pang , Liu Yang , George Em Karniadakis

Human activities generate various event sequences such as taxi trip records, bike-sharing pick-ups, crime occurrence, and infectious disease transmission. The point process is widely used in many applications to predict such events related…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-30 Yoshiaki Takimoto , Yusuke Tanaka , Tomoharu Iwata , Maya Okawa , Hideaki Kim , Hiroyuki Toda , Takeshi Kurashima

Machine learning is increasingly deployed in safety-critical domains where erroneous predictions may lead to potentially catastrophic consequences, highlighting the need for learning systems to be aware of how confident they are in their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-18 Shireen Kudukkil Manchingal , Muhammad Mubashar , Kaizheng Wang , Keivan Shariatmadar , Fabio Cuzzolin

Specifying a Bayesian prior is notoriously difficult for complex models such as neural networks. Reasoning about parameters is made challenging by the high-dimensionality and over-parameterization of the space. Priors that seem benign and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-22 Eric Nalisnick , Jonathan Gordon , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

Over the long history of machine learning, which dates back several decades, recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have been used mainly for sequential data and time series and generally with 1D information. Even in some rare studies on 2D…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-03-05 Nguyen Huu Phong , Bernardete Ribeiro

Neural posterior estimation (NPE) and neural likelihood estimation (NLE) are machine learning approaches that provide accurate posterior, and likelihood, approximations in complex modeling scenarios, and in situations where conducting…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-20 David T. Frazier , Ryan Kelly , Christopher Drovandi , David J. Warne

Ensemble weather predictions require statistical post-processing of systematic errors to obtain reliable and accurate probabilistic forecasts. Traditionally, this is accomplished with distributional regression models in which the parameters…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-04-01 Stephan Rasp , Sebastian Lerch

Neural networks (NNs) are primarily developed within the frequentist statistical framework. Nevertheless, frequentist NNs lack the capability to provide uncertainties in the predictions, and hence their robustness can not be adequately…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2023-10-26 Nastaran Dabiran , Brandon Robinson , Rimple Sandhu , Mohammad Khalil , Dominique Poirel , Abhijit Sarkar

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are powerful learning machines that have enabled breakthroughs in several domains. In this work, we introduce a new retrospective loss to improve the training of deep neural network models by utilizing the prior…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-06-25 Surgan Jandial , Ayush Chopra , Mausoom Sarkar , Piyush Gupta , Balaji Krishnamurthy , Vineeth Balasubramanian

Reliable uncertainty quantification is a first step towards building explainable, transparent, and accountable artificial intelligent systems. Recent progress in Bayesian deep learning has made such quantification realizable. In this paper,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2018-11-20 Yijun Xiao , William Yang Wang

What functions can Neural Processes represent? We analyze the representational capacity of popular NP architectures: Conditional Neural Processes (CNPs), Attentive Neural Processes (ANPs), Transformer Neural Processes (TNPs), and their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Robin Young

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are known to provide accurate predictions and uncertainty estimates even with small amounts of labeled data by capturing similarity between data points through their kernel function. However traditional GP kernels…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-16 Ankur Mallick , Chaitanya Dwivedi , Bhavya Kailkhura , Gauri Joshi , T. Yong-Jin Han

While neural network-based models have achieved impressive performance on a large body of NLP tasks, the generalization behavior of different models remains poorly understood: Does this excellent performance imply a perfect generalization…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2020-01-14 Jinlan Fu , Pengfei Liu , Qi Zhang , Xuanjing Huang

Simulation-based inference (SBI) enables parameter estimation for complex stochastic models with intractable likelihoods when model simulation is feasible. Neural posterior estimation (NPE) is a popular SBI approach that often achieves…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-23 Ryan P. Kelly , David T. Frazier , David J. Warne , Christopher C. Drovandi

In real-world Bayesian inference applications, prior assumptions regarding the parameters of interest may be unrepresentative of their actual values for a given dataset. In particular, if the likelihood is concentrated far out in the wings…

Computation · Statistics 2018-11-01 Xi Chen , Mike Hobson , Saptarshi Das , Paul Gelderblom

Random Neural Networks (RNNs) are a class of Neural Networks (NNs) that can also be seen as a specific type of queuing network. They have been successfully used in several domains during the last 25 years, as queuing networks to analyze the…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2016-09-19 Sebastián Basterrech , Gerardo Rubino

The neural process (NP) is a family of computationally efficient models for learning distributions over functions. However, it suffers from under-fitting and shows suboptimal performance in practice. Researchers have primarily focused on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-08 Qi Wang , Marco Federici , Herke van Hoof