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We propose a highly flexible distributional copula regression model for bivariate time-to-event data in the presence of right-censoring. The joint survival function of the response is constructed using parametric copulas, allowing for a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-23 Guillermo Briseno-Sanchez , Nadja Klein , Andreas Groll , Andreas Mayr

Calibration error is commonly adopted for evaluating the quality of uncertainty estimators in deep neural networks. In this paper, we argue that such a metric is highly beneficial for training predictive models, even when we do not…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-01 Jayaraman J. Thiagarajan , Bindya Venkatesh , Deepta Rajan

Survival regression aims to predict the time when an event of interest will take place, typically a death or a failure. A fully parametric method [18] is proposed to estimate the survival function as a mixture of individual parametric…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-25 Qinxin Wang , Jiayuan Huang , Junhui Li , Jiaming Liu

The conditional survival function of a time-to-event outcome subject to censoring and truncation is a common target of estimation in survival analysis. This parameter may be of scientific interest and also often appears as a nuisance in…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-20 Charles J. Wolock , Peter B. Gilbert , Noah Simon , Marco Carone

Survival analysis stands as a pivotal process in cancer treatment research, crucial for predicting patient survival rates accurately. Recent advancements in data collection techniques have paved the way for enhancing survival predictions by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-26 Linhao Qu , Dan Huang , Shaoting Zhang , Xiaosong Wang

Censoring is the central problem in survival analysis where either the time-to-event (for instance, death), or the time-tocensoring (such as loss of follow-up) is observed for each sample. The majority of existing machine learning-based…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-22 Weijia Zhang , Chun Kai Ling , Xuanhui Zhang

Survival analysis is a crucial semi-supervised task in machine learning with numerous real-world applications, particularly in healthcare. Currently, the most common approach to survival analysis is based on Cox's partial likelihood, which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-27 Andre Vauvelle , Benjamin Wild , Aylin Cakiroglu , Roland Eils , Spiros Denaxas

A survival dataset describes a set of instances (e.g. patients) and provides, for each, either the time until an event (e.g. death), or the censoring time (e.g. when lost to follow-up - which is a lower bound on the time until the event).…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-22 Ali Hossein Gharari Foomani , Michael Cooper , Russell Greiner , Rahul G. Krishnan

Calibrated probability outputs of trained classifiers are increasingly used as inputs to downstream regression estimands such as effects, prevalences, or disparities for a latent group observed only on a small labelled subset. A standard…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-14 Marcell T. Kurbucz

Probabilistic models must be well calibrated to support reliable decision-making. While calibration in single-output regression is well studied, defining and achieving multivariate calibration in multi-output regression remains considerably…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-28 Naomi Desobry , Elnura Zhalieva , Souhaib Ben Taieb

Survival analysis is a statistical framework for modeling time-to-event data. It plays a pivotal role in medicine, reliability engineering, and social science research, where understanding event dynamics even with few data samples is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Alberto Archetti , Eugenio Lomurno , Diego Piccinotti , Matteo Matteucci

Calibration weighting has been widely used to correct selection biases in non-probability sampling, missing data, and causal inference. The main idea is to calibrate the biased sample to the benchmark by adjusting the subject weights.…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-30 Chenyin Gao , Shu Yang , Jae Kwang Kim

We describe a new approach to estimating relative risks in time-to-event prediction problems with censored data in a fully parametric manner. Our approach does not require making strong assumptions of constant proportional hazard of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-10 Chirag Nagpal , Xinyu Rachel Li , Artur Dubrawski

In a well-calibrated risk prediction model, the average predicted probability is close to the true event rate for any given subgroup. Such models are reliable across heterogeneous populations and satisfy strong notions of algorithmic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-31 Jean Feng , Alexej Gossmann , Romain Pirracchio , Nicholas Petrick , Gene Pennello , Berkman Sahiner

Survival outcomes are common in comparative effectiveness studies and require unique handling because they are usually incompletely observed due to right-censoring. A ``once for all'' approach for causal inference with survival outcomes…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-21 Shuxi Zeng , Fan Li , Liangyuan Hu , Fan Li

Many applications of classification methods not only require high accuracy but also reliable estimation of predictive uncertainty. However, while many current classification frameworks, in particular deep neural networks, achieve high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-28 Jonathan Wenger , Hedvig Kjellström , Rudolph Triebel

Survival analysis models the distribution of time until an event of interest, such as discharge from the hospital or admission to the ICU. When a model's predicted number of events within any time interval is similar to the observed number,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-15 Mark Goldstein , Xintian Han , Aahlad Puli , Adler J. Perotte , Rajesh Ranganath

Censored survival data are common in clinical trials, but small control groups can pose challenges, particularly in rare diseases or where balanced randomization is impractical. Recent approaches leverage external controls from historical…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-16 Chenyin Gao , Shu Yang , Mingyang Shan , Wenyu Wendy Ye , Ilya Lipkovich , Douglas Faries

Trustworthy classifiers are essential to the adoption of machine learning predictions in many real-world settings. The predicted probability of possible outcomes can inform high-stakes decision making, particularly when assessing the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-22 Kiri L. Wagstaff , Thomas G. Dietterich

Risk stratification is a key tool in clinical decision-making, yet current approaches often fail to translate sophisticated survival analysis into actionable clinical criteria. We present a novel method for unsupervised machine learning…