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In this paper, we study lower tail probabilities of the height function $\mathfrak{h}(M,N)$ of the stochastic six-vertex model. We introduce a novel combinatorial approach to demonstrate that the tail probabilities…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-26 Sayan Das , Yuchen Liao , Matteo Mucciconi

Chebyshev's inequality provides an upper bound on the tail probability of a random variable based on its mean and variance. While tight, the inequality has been criticized for only being attained by pathological distributions that abuse the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-10-16 Ernst Roos , Ruud Brekelmans , Wouter van Eekelen , Dick den Hertog , Johan van Leeuwaarden

The upper extremes of a Markov chain with regulary varying stationary marginal distribution are known to exhibit under general conditions a multiplicative random walk structure called the tail chain. More generally, if the Markov chain is…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Johan Segers

We establish a large deviation principle for the solutions of a class of stochastic partial differential equations with non-Lipschitz continuous coefficients. As an application, the large deviation principle is derived for super-Brownian…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-05-11 Parisa Fatheddin , Jie Xiong

In this paper, we study large time large deviations for the height function $\mathfrak{h}(x,t)$ of the $q$-deformed polynuclear growth introduced in ABW22 [arXiv:2108.06018]. We show that the upper-tail deviations have speed $t$ and derive…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-09-04 Sayan Das , Yuchen Liao , Matteo Mucciconi

We consider a multivariate distributional recursion of sum-type as arising in the probabilistic analysis of algorithms and random trees. We prove an upper tail bound for the solution using Chernoff's bounding technique by estimating the…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-06-21 Goetz Olaf Munsonius

In this paper, we consider the linearly reinforced and the once-reinforced random walk models in the transient phase on trees. We show the large deviations for the upper tails for both models. We also show the exponential decay for the…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-10-15 Yu Zhang

We present a large deviation principle at speed N for the largest eigenvalue of some additively deformed Wigner matrices. In particular this includes Gaussian ensembles with full-rank general deformation. For the non-Gaussian ensembles, the…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-03-22 Benjamin McKenna

We study the large deviation function for the empirical measure of diffusing particles at one fixed position. We find that the large deviation function exhibits anomalous system size dependence in systems that satisfy the following…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-01-20 Naoto Shiraishi

We establish the large deviation principle for solutions of one-dimensional SDEs with discontinuous coefficients. The main statement is formulated in a form similar to the classical Wentzel--Freidlin theorem, but under the considerably…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-07-14 Alexei Kulik , Daryna Sobolieva

We prove large deviation results for the position of the rightmost particle, denoted by $M_n$, in a one-dimensional branching random walk in a case when Cram\'er's condition is not satisfied. More precisely we consider step size…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-06-17 Piotr Dyszewski , Nina Gantert , Thomas Höfelsauer

The focus of this work is the asymptotic analysis of the tail distribution of Google's PageRank algorithm on large scale-free directed networks. In particular, the main theorem provides the convergence, in the Kantorovich-Rubinstein metric,…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-09-24 Mariana Olvera-Cravioto

Since the pioneering works of Jakobson and Benedicks & Carleson and others, it has been known that a positive measure set of quadratic maps admit invariant probability measures absolutely continuous with respect to Lebesgue. These measures…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2015-05-28 Yong Moo Chung , Hiroki Takahasi

Modelling excesses over a high threshold using the Pareto or generalized Pareto distribution (PD/GPD) is the most popular approach in extreme value statistics. This method typically requires high thresholds in order for the (G)PD to fit…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-01-13 Jan Beirlant , Elisabeth Joossens , Johan Segers

A large deviation principle is established for a general class of stochastic flows in the small noise limit. This result is then applied to a Bayesian formulation of an image matching problem, and an approximate maximum likelihood property…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-02-24 Amarjit Budhiraja , Paul Dupuis , Vasileios Maroulas

We prove that the random variable $\ct=\argmax_{t\in\rr}\{\aip(t)-t^2\}$ has tails which decay like $e^{-ct^3}$. The distribution of $\ct$ is a universal distribution which governs the rescaled endpoint of directed polymers in 1+1…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-10-15 Jeremy Quastel , Daniel Remenik

The goal of this paper is to investigate the tools of extreme value theory originally introduced for discrete time stationary stochastic processes (time series), namely the tail process and the tail measure, in the framework of continuous…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-03-31 Philippe Soulier

In this article for a finite typed random geometric graph we define the empirical locality distribution, which records the number of nodes of a given type linked to a given number of nodes of each type. We find large deviation principle…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-01-29 Kwabena Doku-Amponsah

Large-deviation upper bounds on compact sets do not, in general, extend to arbitrary closed sets without additional tightness. We show that this obstruction already occurs in static entropic optimal transport. More precisely, we construct a…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-23 Maja Gwozdz

For models in the KPZ universality class, such as the zero temperature model of planar last passage-percolation (LPP) and the positive temperature model of directed polymers, its upper tail behavior has been a topic of recent interest, with…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-23 Shirshendu Ganguly , Milind Hegde , Lingfu Zhang
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