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In this chapter, we review variance selection for time-varying parameter (TVP) models for univariate and multivariate time series within a Bayesian framework. We show how both continuous as well as discrete spike-and-slab shrinkage priors…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-07-26 Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter , Peter Knaus

Building upon factor decomposition to overcome the curse of dimensionality inherent in multivariate volatility processes, we develop a factor model-based multivariate stochastic volatility (fMSV) framework. We propose a two-stage estimation…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-24 Benjamin Poignard , Manabu Asai

This paper studies risk balancing features in an insurance market by evaluating ruin probabilities for single and multiple components of a multivariate compound Poisson risk process. The dependence of the components of the process is…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-02-04 Anita Behme , Claudia Klüppelberg , Gesine Reinert

A non-Markovian counting process, the `generalized fractional Poisson process' (GFPP) introduced by Cahoy and Polito in 2013 is analyzed. The GFPP contains two index parameters $0<\beta\leq 1$, $\alpha >0$ and a time scale parameter.…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-04-22 Thomas M. Michelitsch , Alejandro P. Riascos

Stacy distribution defined for the first time in 1961 provides a flexible framework for modelling of a wide range of real-life behaviours. It appears under different names in the scientific literature and contains many useful particular…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-03-21 Pavlina K. Jordanova , Mladen Savov , Assen Tchorbadjieff , Milan Stehlík

Spatial Poisson point processes on finite-dimensional Euclidean space provide fundamental mathematical tools for modeling random spatial point patterns. In this paper, we introduce and analyze several Poisson-type spatial point processes.…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-26 Pradeep Vishwakarma

We present a flexible Bayesian semiparametric mixed model for longitudinal data analysis in the presence of potentially high-dimensional categorical covariates. Building on a novel hidden Markov tensor decomposition technique, our proposed…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-05 Giorgio Paulon , Peter Müller , Abhra Sarkar

A Marked Temporal Point Process (MTPP) is a stochastic process whose realization is a set of event-time data. MTPP is often used to understand complex dynamics of asynchronous temporal events such as money transaction, social media,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-11 Yujee Song , Donghyun Lee , Rui Meng , Won Hwa Kim

The lifetime behaviour of loans is notoriously difficult to model, which can compromise a bank's financial reserves against future losses, if modelled poorly. Therefore, we present a data-driven comparative study amongst three techniques in…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-04-22 Arno Botha , Tanja Verster , Roland Breedt

Multidimensional factor models with moderations on all model parameters have so far been limited to single-factor and two-factor models. This does not align well with existing psychological measures, which are commonly intended to assess…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-22 R. Noah Padgett

This article describes a multivariate polynomial regression method where the uncertainty of the input parameters are approximated with Gaussian distributions, derived from the central limit theorem for large weighted sums, directly from the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-10-04 Peter Kovesarki , Ian C. Brock

We prove large deviation principles for two versions of fractional Poisson processes. Firstly we consider the main version which is a renewal process; we also present large deviation estimates for the ruin probabilities of an insurance…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-11-26 Luisa Beghin , Claudio Macci

This paper introduces a variable-order stable subordinator (VOSS) $S^{\alpha(t)}(t)$ with index $\alpha(t)\in(0,1)$, where $\alpha(t)$ is a right-continuous piecewise constant function. We drive the Generalized Space-Fractional Poisson…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-13 Reetendra Singh , Aditya Maheshwari

The linear fractional stable motion generalizes two prominent classes of stochastic processes, namely stable L\'evy processes, and fractional Brownian motion. For this reason it may be regarded as a basic building block for continuous time…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-08-17 Fabian Mies , Mark Podolskij

We consider a class of semi-Markov processes (SMP) such that the embedded discrete time Markov chain may be non-homogeneous. The corresponding augmented processes are represented as semi-martingales using stochastic integral equation…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-07-14 Anindya Goswami , Subhamay Saha , Ravishankar Kapildev Yadav

Multifractional processes extend the concept of fractional Brownian motion by replacing the constant Hurst parameter with a time-varying Hurst function. This extension allows for modulation of the roughness of sample paths over time. The…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-03-11 Antoine Ayache , Andriy Olenko , Nemini Samarakoon

We study a class of multivariate tempered stable distributions and introduce the associated class of tempered stable Sato subordinators. These Sato subordinators are used to build additive inhomogeneous processes by subordination of a…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-09-03 Patrizia Semeraro

We describe spatio-temporal random processes using linear mixed models. We show how many commonly used models can be viewed as special cases of this general framework and pay close attention to models with separable or product-sum…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-01 Michael Dumelle , Jay M. Ver Hoef , Claudio Fuentes , Alix Gitelman

The analysis of the linearization effect in multifractal analysis, and hence of the estimation of moments for multifractal processes, is revisited borrowing concepts from the statistical physics of disordered systems, notably from the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2011-07-28 Florian Angeletti , Marc Mézard , Eric Bertin , Patrice Abry

In this paper, we study a multivariate gamma subordinator whose components are independent gamma processes subject to a random time governed by an independent negative binomial process. We derive the explicit expressions for its joint…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-01 Manisha Dhillon , Kuldeep Kumar Kataria , Shyan Ghosh
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