English
Related papers

Related papers: Stochastic Online Conformal Prediction with Semi-B…

200 papers

Convolutional image classifiers can achieve high predictive accuracy, but quantifying their uncertainty remains an unresolved challenge, hindering their deployment in consequential settings. Existing uncertainty quantification techniques,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-09-07 Anastasios Angelopoulos , Stephen Bates , Jitendra Malik , Michael I. Jordan

In this paper, we analyze the problem of online convex optimization in different settings, including different feedback types (full-information/semi-bandit/bandit/etc) in either stochastic or non-stochastic setting and different notions of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-23 Mohammad Pedramfar , Vaneet Aggarwal

Conformal prediction is a technique for constructing prediction intervals that attain valid coverage in finite samples, without making distributional assumptions. Despite this appeal, existing conformal methods can be unnecessarily…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-09 Yaniv Romano , Evan Patterson , Emmanuel J. Candès

Obtaining high-quality labels for large datasets is expensive, requiring massive annotations from human experts. While AI models offer a cost-effective alternative by predicting labels, their label quality is compromised by the unavoidable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Huipeng Huang , Wenbo Liao , Huajun Xi , Hao Zeng , Mengchen Zhao , Hongxin Wei

Conformal prediction constructs a confidence set for an unobserved response of a feature vector based on previous identically distributed and exchangeable observations of responses and features. It has a coverage guarantee at any nominal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-08 Eugene Ndiaye , Ichiro Takeuchi

We consider online learning problems under a partial observability model capturing situations where the information conveyed to the learner is between full information and bandit feedback. In the simplest variant, we assume that in addition…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Tomas Kocak , Gergely Neu , Michal Valko , Remi Munos

In supervised learning, we typically leverage a fully labeled dataset to design methods for function estimation or prediction. In many practical situations, we are able to obtain alternative feedback, possibly at a low cost. A broad goal is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-27 Yichong Xu , Sivaraman Balakrishnan , Aarti Singh , Artur Dubrawski

With the fast development of big data, learning the optimal decision rule by recursively updating it and making online decisions has been easier than before. We study the online statistical inference of model parameters in a contextual…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-22 Xiangyu Chang , Xi Chen , Zehua Lai , He Li , Zhihong Liu , Yichen Zhang

Conformal unlearning aims to ensure that a trained conformal predictor miscovers data points with specific shared characteristics, such as those from a particular label class, associated with a specific user, or belonging to a defined…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-13 Yahya Alkhatib , Muhammad Ahmar Jamal , Wee Peng Tay

In many online learning problems we are interested in predicting local information about some universe of items. For example, we may want to know whether two items are in the same cluster rather than computing an assignment of items to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-03-24 Paul Christiano

Computationally efficient contextual bandits are often based on estimating a predictive model of rewards given contexts and arms using past data. However, when the reward model is not well-specified, the bandit algorithm may incur…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-14 Sanath Kumar Krishnamurthy , Vitor Hadad , Susan Athey

Predictive inference is a fundamental task in statistics, traditionally addressed using parametric assumptions about the data distribution and detailed analyses of how models learn from data. In recent years, conformal prediction has…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-26 Matteo Sesia , Stefano Favaro

We develop a novel approach to conformal prediction when the target task has limited data available for training. Conformal prediction identifies a small set of promising output candidates in place of a single prediction, with guarantees…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-21 Adam Fisch , Tal Schuster , Tommi Jaakkola , Regina Barzilay

We consider the contextual bandit problem where at each time, the agent only has access to a noisy version of the context and the error variance (or an estimator of this variance). This setting is motivated by a wide range of applications…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-19 Yongyi Guo , Ziping Xu , Susan Murphy

Medical imaging classifiers can achieve high predictive accuracy, but quantifying their uncertainty remains an unresolved challenge, which prevents their deployment in medical clinics. We present an algorithm that can modify any classifier…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-12 Roy Hirsch , Jacob Goldberger

This paper investigates off-policy evaluation in contextual bandits, aiming to quantify the performance of a target policy using data collected under a different and potentially unknown behavior policy. Recently, methods based on conformal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-23 Yilong Wan , Yuqiang Li , Xianyi Wu

This paper presents a comprehensive empirical analysis of conformal prediction methods on a challenging aerial image dataset featuring diverse events in unconstrained environments. Conformal prediction is a powerful post-hoc technique that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-25 Farhad Pourkamali-Anaraki

Online structured prediction is a task of sequentially predicting outputs with complex structures based on inputs and past observations, encompassing online classification. Recent studies showed that in the full-information setting, we can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-06 Yuki Shibukawa , Taira Tsuchiya , Shinsaku Sakaue , Kenji Yamanishi

Regression problems with bounded continuous outcomes frequently arise in real-world statistical and machine learning applications, such as the analysis of rates and proportions. A central challenge in this setting is predicting a response…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-21 Zhanli Wu , Fabrizio Leisen , F. Javier Rubio

Modern stochastic optimization methods often rely on uniform sampling which is agnostic to the underlying characteristics of the data. This might degrade the convergence by yielding estimates that suffer from a high variance. A possible…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-07 Zalán Borsos , Andreas Krause , Kfir Y. Levy