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We consider the problem of online multiclass classification with partial feedback, where an algorithm predicts a class for a new instance in each round and only receives its correctness. Although several methods have been developed for this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-02-05 Takuo Kaneko , Issei Sato , Masashi Sugiyama

Conformal prediction is widely used to equip black-box machine learning models with uncertainty quantification, offering formal coverage guarantees under exchangeable data. However, these guarantees fail when faced with subpopulation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-10 Nien-Shao Wang , Duygu Nur Yaldiz , Yavuz Faruk Bakman , Sai Praneeth Karimireddy

We study how to adapt to smoothly-varying ('easy') environments in well-known online learning problems where acquiring information is expensive. For the problem of label efficient prediction, which is a budgeted version of prediction with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-09 Siddharth Mitra , Aditya Gopalan

This paper presents a conformal prediction method for classification in highly imbalanced and open-set settings, where there are many possible classes and not all may be represented in the data. Existing approaches require a finite, known…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-16 Tianmin Xie , Yanfei Zhou , Ziyi Liang , Stefano Favaro , Matteo Sesia

Conformal prediction is a statistical framework that generates prediction sets containing ground-truth labels with a desired coverage guarantee. The predicted probabilities produced by machine learning models are generally miscalibrated,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-07 Jianguo Huang , Huajun Xi , Linjun Zhang , Huaxiu Yao , Yue Qiu , Hongxin Wei

Conformal prediction is an emerging technique for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true label with a predefined probability. Recent work develops online conformal prediction methods that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-17 Huajun Xi , Kangdao Liu , Hao Zeng , Wenguang Sun , Hongxin Wei

Machine learning classification tasks often benefit from predicting a set of possible labels with confidence scores to capture uncertainty. However, existing methods struggle with the high-dimensional nature of the data and the lack of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-08 Rui Luo , Zhixin Zhou

Conformal prediction provides a pivotal and flexible technique for uncertainty quantification by constructing prediction sets with a predefined coverage rate. Many online conformal prediction methods have been developed to address data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-25 Dongjian Hu , Junxi Wu , Shu-Tao Xia , Changliang Zou

We study the problem of online learning in adversarial bandit problems under a partial observability model called off-policy feedback. In this sequential decision making problem, the learner cannot directly observe its rewards, but instead…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-20 Germano Gabbianelli , Matteo Papini , Gergely Neu

We consider online prediction of a binary sequence with expert advice. For this setting, we devise label-efficient forecasting algorithms, which use a selective sampling scheme that enables collecting much fewer labels than standard…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-23 Rui M. Castro , Fredrik Hellström , Tim van Erven

Most off-policy evaluation methods for contextual bandits have focused on the expected outcome of a policy, which is estimated via methods that at best provide only asymptotic guarantees. However, in many applications, the expectation may…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-27 Muhammad Faaiz Taufiq , Jean-Francois Ton , Rob Cornish , Yee Whye Teh , Arnaud Doucet

Conformal prediction provides a principled framework for uncertainty quantification with finite-sample coverage guarantees. While recent work has extended conformal prediction to online and sequential settings, existing methods typically…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-14 Eduardo Ochoa Rivera , Ambuj Tewari

We consider an online learning problem with one-sided feedback, in which the learner is able to observe the true label only for positively predicted instances. On each round, $k$ instances arrive and receive classification outcomes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-10 Yahav Bechavod , Aaron Roth

Conformal prediction has emerged as a powerful framework for constructing distribution-free prediction sets with guaranteed coverage assuming only the exchangeability assumption. However, this assumption is often violated in online…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-07 Jungbin Jun , Ilsang Ohn

Methods for split conformal prediction leverage calibration samples to transform any prediction rule into a set-prediction rule that complies with a target coverage probability. Existing methods provide remarkably strong performance…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-15 Santiago Mazuelas

Conformal predictions make it possible to define reliable and robust learning algorithms. But they are essentially a method for evaluating whether an algorithm is good enough to be used in practice. To define a reliable learning framework…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-18 Alberto Carlevaro , Teodoro Alamo Cantarero , Fabrizio Dabbene , Maurizio Mongelli

In this paper, we study a special bandit setting of online stochastic linear optimization, where only one-bit of information is revealed to the learner at each round. This problem has found many applications including online advertisement…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-09-28 Lijun Zhang , Tianbao Yang , Rong Jin , Zhi-Hua Zhou

If you are predicting the label $y$ of a new object with $\hat y$, how confident are you that $y = \hat y$? Conformal prediction methods provide an elegant framework for answering such question by building a $100 (1 - \alpha)\%$ confidence…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-11 Eugene Ndiaye , Ichiro Takeuchi

Bandits with feedback graphs are powerful online learning models that interpolate between the full information and classic bandit problems, capturing many real-life applications. A recent work by Zhang et al. (2023) studies the contextual…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-14 Mengxiao Zhang , Yuheng Zhang , Haipeng Luo , Paul Mineiro

Conformal prediction uses past experience to determine precise levels of confidence in new predictions. Given an error probability $\epsilon$, together with a method that makes a prediction $\hat{y}$ of a label $y$, it produces a set of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-23 Glenn Shafer , Vladimir Vovk