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Simulation-based inference (SBI) methods tackle complex scientific models with challenging inverse problems. However, SBI models often face a significant hurdle due to their non-differentiable nature, which hampers the use of gradient-based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-29 Vincent D. Zaballa , Elliot E. Hui

Ordinary Differential Equations are widespread tools to model chemical, physical, biological process but they usually rely on parameters which are of critical importance in terms of dynamic and need to be estimated directly from the data.…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-10-29 Nicolas Brunel , Quentin Clairon

Post hoc explainers such as SHAP and LIME are used widely in business research to interpret complex machine learning models. Although they were designed to explain model predictions, there has been an increasing trend in which the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-10 Tong Wang , Ronilo Ragodos , Lu Feng , Yu , Hu

After deployment, machine learning models often experience performance degradation due to shifts in data distribution. It is challenging to assess post-deployment performance accurately when labels are missing or delayed. Existing proxy…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-22 Jakub Białek , Juhani Kivimäki , Wojtek Kuberski , Nikolaos Perrakis

In this study, I investigate the dynamic decision problem with a finite parameter space when the functional form of conditional expected rewards is misspecified. Traditional algorithms, such as Thompson Sampling, guarantee neither an…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-05-22 Xinyu Dai

Applications such as weather forecasting and personalized medicine demand models that output calibrated probability estimates---those representative of the true likelihood of a prediction. Most models are not calibrated out of the box but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-03 Ananya Kumar , Percy Liang , Tengyu Ma

Sequential neural posterior estimation (SNPE) techniques have been recently proposed for dealing with simulation-based models with intractable likelihoods. Unlike approximate Bayesian computation, SNPE techniques learn the posterior from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-17 Yifei Xiong , Xiliang Yang , Sanguo Zhang , Zhijian He

We address the problem of robot guided assembly tasks, by using a learning-based approach to identify contact model parameters for known and novel parts. First, a Variational Autoencoder (VAE) is used to extract geometric features of…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-12-12 Constantin Schempp , Christian Friedrich

In the pursuit of real-time motion planning, a commonly adopted practice is to compute a trajectory by running a planning algorithm on a simplified, low-dimensional dynamical model, and then employ a feedback tracking controller that tracks…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2019-07-30 Sumeet Singh , Mo Chen , Sylvia L. Herbert , Claire J. Tomlin , Marco Pavone

Model misspecification is a long-standing enigma of the Bayesian inference framework as posteriors tend to get overly concentrated on ill-informed parameter values towards the large sample limit. Tempering of the likelihood has been…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-12-13 Owen Thomas , Jukka Corander

Modern simulation-based inference techniques use neural networks to solve inverse problems efficiently. One notable strategy is neural posterior estimation (NPE), wherein a neural network parameterizes a distribution to approximate the…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2024-03-06 Alex Kolmus , Justin Janquart , Tomasz Baka , Twan van Laarhoven , Chris Van Den Broeck , Tom Heskes

Perturbation-based explanations are widely utilized to enhance the transparency of machine-learning models in practice. However, their reliability is often compromised by the unknown model behavior under the specific perturbations used.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-14 Thomas Decker , Volker Tresp , Florian Buettner

While widely used as a general method for uncertainty quantification, the bootstrap method encounters difficulties that raise concerns about its validity in practical applications. This paper introduces a new resampling-based method, termed…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-30 Yiran Jiang , Chuanhai Liu , Heping Zhang

This study introduces a novel computational framework for Robust Topology Optimization (RTO) considering imprecise random field parameters. Unlike the worst-case approach, the present method provides upper and lower bounds for the mean and…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2022-01-28 Kang Gao , Duy Minh Doc , Sheng Chu , Gang Wu , H. Alicia Kim , Carol A. Featherston

Machine learning (ML) techniques have recently enabled enormous gains in sensitivity to new phenomena across the sciences. In particle physics, much of this progress has relied on excellent simulations of a wide range of physical processes.…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2025-10-20 Malte Algren , Tobias Golling , Francesco Armando Di Bello , Christopher Pollard

The Rotary Position Embedding (RoPE) mechanism has become a powerful enhancement to the Transformer architecture, which enables models to capture token relationships when encoding positional information. However, the RoPE mechanisms make…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-27 Yang Cao , Jiayan Huo , Yingyu Liang , Zhenmei Shi , Zhao Song

The representativeness of synthetic pre-crash scenarios is crucial for assessing the safety impact of Driving Automation Systems through virtual simulations. However, a gap remains in the robust evaluation of synthetic pre-crash scenarios'…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-05-07 Jian Wu , Ulrich Sander , Carol Flannagan , Jonas Bärgman

Accurate error estimation is crucial in model order reduction, both to obtain small reduced-order models and to certify their accuracy when deployed in downstream applications such as digital twins. In existing a posteriori error estimation…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-07-24 Sridhar Chellappa , Lihong Feng , Peter Benner

Stochastic simulation aims to compute output performance for complex models that lack analytical tractability. To ensure accurate prediction, the model needs to be calibrated and validated against real data. Conventional methods approach…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-28 Yuanlu Bai , Tucker Balch , Haoxian Chen , Danial Dervovic , Henry Lam , Svitlana Vyetrenko

We study adaptive estimation and inference in ill-posed linear inverse problems defined by conditional moment restrictions. Existing regularized estimators such as Regularized DeepIV (RDIV) require prior knowledge of the smoothness of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-03 Jiyuan Tan , Vasilis Syrgkanis