English

Adaptive Estimation and Inference in Conditional Moment Models via the Discrepancy Principle

Machine Learning 2026-03-03 v1 Machine Learning

Abstract

We study adaptive estimation and inference in ill-posed linear inverse problems defined by conditional moment restrictions. Existing regularized estimators such as Regularized DeepIV (RDIV) require prior knowledge of the smoothness of the nuisance function, typically encoded by a beta source condition to tune their regularization parameters. In practice, this smoothness is unknown, and misspecified hyperparameters can lead to suboptimal convergence or instability. We introduce a discrepancy-principle-based framework for adaptive hyperparameter selection that automatically balances bias and variance without relying on the unknown smoothness parameter. Our framework applies to both RDIV (Li et al. [2024]) and the Tikhonov Regularized Adversarial Estimator (TRAE) (Bennett et al. [2023a]) and achieves the same rates in both weak and strong metrics. Building on this, we construct a fully adaptive doubly robust estimator for linear functionals that attains the optimal rate of the better-conditioned primal or dual problem, providing a practical, theoretically grounded approach for adaptive inference in ill-posed econometric models.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2603.01337,
  title  = {Adaptive Estimation and Inference in Conditional Moment Models via the Discrepancy Principle},
  author = {Jiyuan Tan and Vasilis Syrgkanis},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2603.01337},
  year   = {2026}
}
R2 v1 2026-07-01T10:58:20.503Z