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Many problems in machine learning are naturally expressed in the language of undirected graphical models. Here, we propose black-box learning and inference algorithms for undirected models that optimize a variational approximation to the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-11-20 Volodymyr Kuleshov , Stefano Ermon

This paper proposes a new integrated variance estimator based on order statistics within the framework of jump-diffusion models. Its ability to disentangle the integrated variance from the total process quadratic variation is confirmed by…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2018-03-23 Luca Spadafora , Francesca Sivero , Nicola Picchiotti

With the growing deployment of sequential recommender systems in e-commerce and other fields, their black-box interfaces raise security concerns: models are vulnerable to extraction and subsequent adversarial manipulation. Existing…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2026-02-13 Hongyue Zhang , Mingming Li , Dongqin Liu , Hui Wang , Yaning Zhang , Xi Zhou , Honglei Lv , Jiao Dai , Jizhong Han

Hierarchical models represent a challenging setting for inference algorithms. MCMC methods struggle to scale to large models with many local variables and observations, and variational inference (VI) may fail to provide accurate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-27 Tomas Geffner , Justin Domke

This paper introduces a new functional optimization approach to portfolio optimization problems by treating the unknown weight vector as a function of past values instead of treating them as fixed unknown coefficients in the majority of…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-12-10 Ka Wai Tsang , Zhaoyi He

Bayesian model comparison relies upon the model evidence, yet for many models of interest the model evidence is unavailable in closed form and must be approximated. Many of the estimators for evidence that have been proposed in the Monte…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-05-02 Chris J. Oates , Theodore Papamarkou , Mark Girolami

Black-box adversarial attacks on Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) are challenging due to missing gradients and complex multimodal boundaries. While prior state-of-the-art transfer-based approaches like M-Attack perform well using local…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-20 Xiaohan Zhao , Zhaoyi Li , Yaxin Luo , Jiacheng Cui , Zhiqiang Shen

Rank-based metrics are some of the most widely used criteria for performance evaluation of computer vision models. Despite years of effort, direct optimization for these metrics remains a challenge due to their non-differentiable and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-16 Michal Rolínek , Vít Musil , Anselm Paulus , Marin Vlastelica , Claudio Michaelis , Georg Martius

This paper considers Importance Sampling (IS) for the estimation of tail risks of a loss defined in terms of a sophisticated object such as a machine learning feature map or a mixed integer linear optimisation formulation. Assuming only…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-06-21 Anand Deo , Karthyek Murthy

We present a multilevel stochastic gradient descent method for the optimal control of systems governed by partial differential equations under uncertain input data. The gradient descent method used to find the optimal control leverages a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-06-04 Niklas Baumgarten , David Schneiderhan

Variational inference has recently emerged as a popular alternative to the classical Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in large-scale Bayesian inference. The core idea is to trade statistical accuracy for computational efficiency. In this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-08-08 Kush Bhatia , Nikki Lijing Kuang , Yi-An Ma , Yixin Wang

Stochastic non-convex non-concave optimization, formally characterized as Stochastic Variational Inequalities (SVIs), presents unique challenges due to rotational dynamics and the absence of a global merit function. While adaptive step-size…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-03-12 Yungi Jeong , Takumi Otsuka

We study the problem of attacking a machine learning model in the hard-label black-box setting, where no model information is revealed except that the attacker can make queries to probe the corresponding hard-label decisions. This is a very…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-07-13 Minhao Cheng , Thong Le , Pin-Yu Chen , Jinfeng Yi , Huan Zhang , Cho-Jui Hsieh

When investigators seek to estimate causal effects, they often assume that selection into treatment is based only on observed covariates. Under this identification strategy, analysts must adjust for observed confounders. While basic…

Applications · Statistics 2019-01-09 Luke Keele , Dylan Small

The core principle of Variational Inference (VI) is to convert the statistical inference problem of computing complex posterior probability densities into a tractable optimization problem. This property enables VI to be faster than several…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-25 Ankush Ganguly , Sanjana Jain , Ukrit Watchareeruetai

Interpreting black-box machine learning models is challenging due to their strong dependence on data and inherently non-parametric nature. This paper reintroduces the concept of importance through "Marginal Variable Importance Metric"…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-30 Mohammad Kaviul Anam Khan , Olli Saarela , Rafal Kustra

Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) is a deterministic particle inference algorithm that provides an efficient alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo. However, SVGD has been found to suffer from variance underestimation when the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-14 Xing Liu , Harrison Zhu , Jean-François Ton , George Wynne , Andrew Duncan

Many computationally-efficient methods for Bayesian deep learning rely on continuous optimization algorithms, but the implementation of these methods requires significant changes to existing code-bases. In this paper, we propose Vprop, a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-12-05 Mohammad Emtiyaz Khan , Zuozhu Liu , Voot Tangkaratt , Yarin Gal

The trace $\tr(q(\ma{L} + q\ma{I})^{-1})$, where $\ma{L}$ is a symmetric diagonally dominant matrix, is the quantity of interest in some machine learning problems. However, its direct computation is impractical if the matrix size is large.…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-09-14 Yusuf Yigit Pilavci , Pierre-Olivier Amblard , Simon Barthelme , Nicolas Tremblay

Variational Monte Carlo (VMC) is a powerful and fast-growing method for optimizing and evolving parameterized many-body wave functions, especially with modern neural-network quantum states. In practice, however, the stochastic estimators…

Strongly Correlated Electrons · Physics 2026-03-20 Zhou-Quan Wan , Roeland Wiersema , Shiwei Zhang