Related papers: The Harmonic Descent Chain
We introduce Joint Probability Trees (JPT), a novel approach that makes learning of and reasoning about joint probability distributions tractable for practical applications. JPTs support both symbolic and subsymbolic variables in a single…
We study an irreducible Markov chain on the category of finite abelian $p$-groups, whose stationary measure is the Cohen-Lenstra distribution. This Markov chain arises when one studies the cokernel of a random matrix $M$, after conditioning…
The basic question in perturbation analysis of Markov chains is: how do small changes in the transition kernels of Markov chains translate to chains in their stationary distributions? Many papers on the subject have shown, roughly, that the…
The convergence, convergence rate and expected hitting time play fundamental roles in the analysis of randomised search heuristics. This paper presents a unified Markov chain approach to studying them. Using the approach, the sufficient and…
Let {X_n,n\geq0} be a Markov chain on a general state space X with transition probability P and stationary probability \pi. Suppose an additive component S_n takes values in the real line R and is adjoined to the chain such that…
There exists a range of different models for estimating and simulating credit risk transitions to optimally manage credit risk portfolios and products. In this chapter we present a Coupled Markov Chain approach to model rating transitions…
In this paper, we study consistent and partially exchangeable sequences of Markov chains on a finite state space. We provide a characterisation of the admissible transition rates via a decomposition into individual and coordinated motion of…
A new Bayesian modelling framework is introduced for piece-wise homogeneous variable-memory Markov chains, along with a collection of effective algorithmic tools for change-point detection and segmentation of discrete time series. Building…
We study the problem of characterizing the expected hitting times for a robust generalization of continuous-time Markov chains. This generalization is based on the theory of imprecise probabilities, and the models with which we work…
Habitat loss is one of the biggest threats facing plant species nowadays. We formulate a simple mathematical model of seed dispersal on reduced habitats to discuss survival of the species in relation to the habitat size and seeds production…
A function on the state space of a Markov chain is a "lumping" if observing only the function values gives a Markov chain. We give very general conditions for lumpings of a large class of algebraically-defined Markov chains, which include…
We introduce block Markov chains (BMCs) indexed by an infinite rooted tree. It turns out that BMCs define a new class of tree-indexed Markovian processes. We clarify the structure of BMCs in connection with Markov chains (MCs) and Markov…
A sequence of real numbers (x_n) is Benford if the significands, i.e. the fraction parts in the floating-point representation of (x_n) are distributed logarithmically. Similarly, a discrete-time irreducible and aperiodic finite-state Markov…
In this paper we study Markov chains associated with the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. We consider conditions under which the sequence of the successive densities of such a chain converges to the target density according to the total…
We consider a unified framework of sequential change-point detection and hypothesis testing modeled by means of hidden Markov chains. One observes a sequence of random variables whose distributions are functionals of a hidden Markov chain.…
In many dynamical systems in nature, the law of the dynamics changes along with the temporal evolution of the system. These changes are often associated with the occurrence of certain events. The timing of occurrence of these events…
Positive dependencies have been compared in the literature under rather strong assumptions such as equality of conditional distributions, exchangeability, or stationarity. We establish supermodular ordering results for distributions that…
The reduced Markov branching process is a stochastic model for the genealogy of an unstructured biological population. Its limit behavior in the critical case is well studied for the Zolotarev-Slack regularity parameter $\alpha\in(0,1]$. We…
The infinitesimal transition probability operator for a continuous-time discrete-state Markov process, $\mathcal{Q}$, can be decomposed into a symmetric and a skew-symmetric parts. As recently shown for the case of diffusion processes,…
We give recurrence and transience criteria for two cases of time-homogeneous Markov chains on the real line with transition kernel $p(x,dy)=f_x(y-x)dy$, where $f_x(y)$ are probability densities of symmetric distributions and, for large…