Related papers: The Harmonic Descent Chain

We present a new framework to derandomise certain Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. As in MCMC, we first reduce counting problems to sampling from a sequence of marginal distributions. For the latter task, we introduce a method…

We derive some key extremal features for $k$th order Markov chains that can be used to understand how the process moves between an extreme state and the body of the process. The chains are studied given that there is an exceedance of a…

Bottom-Up Hidden Tree Markov Model is a highly expressive model for tree-structured data. Unfortunately, it cannot be used in practice due to the intractable size of its state-transition matrix. We propose a new approximation which lies on…

A discrete-time stochastic process derived from a model of basketball is used to generalize any discrete distribution. The generalized distributions can have one or two more parameters than the parent distribution. Those derived from…

We present a general framework for defining priors on model structure and sampling from the posterior using the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. The key idea is that structure priors are defined via a probability tree and that the proposal…

The main goal of the paper is to develop an estimate for the conditional probability function of random stationary ergodic symbolic sequences with elements belonging to a finite alphabet. We elaborate a decomposition procedure for the…

Given a chain complex with the only modification that each cell of the complex has a probability distribution assigned. We will call this complex - a random complex and what should be understood in practice, is that we have a classical…

This study in centered on models accounting for stochastic deformations of sample paths of random walks, embedded either in $\mathbb{Z}^2$ or in $\mathbb{Z}^3$. These models are immersed in multi-type particle systems with exclusion.…

We consider continuous-time Markov chain on a finite state space X. We assume X can be clustered into several subsets such that the intra-transition rates within these subsets are of order $\mathcal{O}(\frac{1}{\epsilon})$ comparing to the…

We study algorithms to analyze a particular class of Markov population processes that is often used in epidemiology. More specifically, Markov binomial chains are the model that arises from stochastic time-discretizations of classical…

We study the problem of learning the Markov order in categorical sequences that represent paths in a network, i.e. sequences of variable lengths where transitions between states are constrained to a known graph. Such data pose challenges…

We reconsider the deterministic haploid mutation-selection equation with two types. This is an ordinary differential equation that describes the type distribution (forward in time) in a population of infinite size. This paper establishes…

We study Markov chains generated by iterated Lipschitz functions systems with possibly place dependent probabilities. Under general conditions, we prove uniqueness of the invariant probability measure for the associated Markov chain, by…

In this work we present a modified neural network model which is capable to simulate Markov Chains. We show how to express and train such a network, how to ensure given statistical properties reflected in the training data and we…

The interplay between bifurcations and random switching processes of vector fields is studied. More precisely, we provide a classification of piecewise deterministic Markov processes arising from stochastic switching dynamics near fold,…

It is well-known that 0 is the absorbing state for a branching system. Each particle in the system lives a random long time and gives a random number of new particles at its death time. It stops when the system has no particle. This paper…

Let $G$ be a finite group. Let $H, K$ be subgroups of $G$ and $H \backslash G / K$ the double coset space. Let $Q$ be a probability on $G$ which is constant on conjugacy classes ($Q(s^{-1} t s) = Q(t)$). The random walk driven by $Q$ on $G$…

We introduce a three-parameter random walk with reinforcement, called the $(\theta,\alpha,\beta)$ scheme, which generalizes the linearly edge reinforced random walk to uncountable spaces. The parameter $\beta$ smoothly tunes the…

We propose a new Bayesian Markov switching regression model for multidimensional arrays (tensors) of binary time series. We assume a zero-inflated logit regression with time-varying parameters and apply it to multilayer temporal networks.…

In the design and analysis of political redistricting maps, it is often useful to be able to sample from the space of all partitions of the graph of census blocks into connected subgraphs of equal population. There are influential Markov…