Related papers: Backtesting Expected Shortfall: Accounting for bot…
We account for time-varying parameters in the conditional expectile-based value at risk (EVaR) model. The EVaR downside risk is more sensitive to the magnitude of portfolio losses compared to the quantile-based value at risk (QVaR). Rather…
Systemic risk measures have been shown to be predictive of financial crises and declines in real activity. Thus, forecasting them is of major importance in finance and economics. In this paper, we propose a new forecasting method for…
Bipartite Experiments are randomized experiments where the treatment is applied to a set of units (randomization units) that is different from the units of analysis, and randomization units and analysis units are connected through a…
Causal inference in multivariate time series is challenging due to the fact that the sampling rate may not be as fast as the timescale of the causal interactions. In this context, we can view our observed series as a subsampled version of…
Under Solvency II, the Value-at-Risk (VaR) is applied, although there is broad consensus that the Expected Shortfall (ES) constitutes a more appropriate risk measure. Moving towards ES would necessitate specifying the corresponding ES…
This paper considers two-sided tests for the parameter of an endogenous variable in an instrumental variable (IV) model with heteroskedastic and autocorrelated errors. We develop the finite-sample theory of weighted-average power (WAP)…
The objective of this paper is to develop statistical methodology for planning and evaluating three-armed non-inferiority trials for general retention of effect hypotheses, where the endpoint of interest may follow any (regular) parametric…
This article develops the asymptotic distribution of the least squares estimator of the model parameters in periodicvector autoregressive time series models (hereafter PVAR) with uncorrelated but dependent innovations. When theinnovations…
To provide a comprehensive summary of the tail distribution, the expected shortfall is defined as the average over the tail above (or below) a certain quantile of the distribution. The expected shortfall regression captures the…
Backtesting risk measures is a central task in financial regulation. While standard backtests evaluate whether a forecasting model is statistically consistent with observed losses, regulatory practice often requires assessing the…
Extreme Value Theory (EVT) is one of the most commonly used approaches in finance for measuring the downside risk of investment portfolios, especially during financial crises. In this paper, we propose a novel approach based on EVT called…
Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are widely used in practical studies, e.g., forecasting, modelling policy transmission mechanism, and measuring connection of economic agents. To better capture the dynamics, this paper introduces a new…
This paper presents non-parametric estimates of spectral risk measures applied to long and short positions in 5 prominent equity futures contracts. It also compares these to estimates of two popular alternative measures, the Value-at-Risk…
This paper formulates algorithms to upper-bound the maximum Value-at-Risk (VaR) of a state function along trajectories of stochastic processes. The VaR is upper bounded by two methods: minimax tail-bounds (Cantelli/Vysochanskij-Petunin) and…
This paper proposes a semiparametric joint VaRES framework driven by realized information, mo tivated by the economic mechanisms underlying tail risk generation. Building on the CAViaR quantile recursion, the model introduces a dynamic…
In this paper, we present the discrete-time unbiased extremum seeking (ES) algorithm for n-dimensional (nD) static quadratic maps in the presence of unknown time-varying measurement delays bounded by known constants which can be large. The…
The bootstrap, based on resampling, has, for several decades, been a widely used method for computing confidence intervals for applications where no exact method is available and when sample sizes are not large enough to be able to rely on…
Testing heteroscedasticity of the errors is a major challenge in high-dimensional regressions where the number of covariates is large compared to the sample size. Traditional procedures such as the White and the Breusch-Pagan tests…
As evidenced by various recent and significant papers within the frequentist literature, along with numerous applications in macroeconomics, genomics, and neuroscience, there continues to be substantial interest to understand the…
Although increasingly used as a data resource for assembling cohorts, electronic health records (EHRs) pose many analytic challenges. In particular, a patient's health status influences when and what data are recorded, generating sampling…