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The contour map of estimation error of Expected Shortfall (ES) is constructed. It allows one to quantitatively determine the sample size (the length of the time series) required by the optimization under ES of large institutional portfolios…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2015-02-24 Imre Kondor , Fabio Caccioli , Gábor Papp , Matteo Marsili

Observed accidents have been the main resource for road safety analysis over the past decades. Although such reliance seems quite straightforward, the rare nature of these events has made safety difficult to assess, especially for new and…

Applications · Statistics 2019-11-22 Joana Cavadas , Carlos Lima Azevedo , Haneen Farah , Ana Ferreira

Two-phase sampling offers a cost-effective way to validate error-prone covariate measurements in biomedical databases. Inexpensive or easy-to-obtain information is collected for the entire study in Phase I. Then, a subset of patients…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-21 Sarah C. Lotspeich , Cole Manschot

A joint conditional autoregressive expectile and Expected Shortfall framework is proposed. The framework is extended through incorporating a measurement equation which models the contemporaneous dependence between the realized measures and…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2019-06-25 Chao Wang , Richard Gerlach

This paper proposes a novel class of generalized Expected-Shortfall (ES) norms constructed via distortion risk measures, establishing a unified analytical framework for risk quantification. The proposed norms extend conventional ES…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-07-15 Shuyu Gong , Taizhong Hu , Zhenfeng Zou

Capital allocation is a procedure for quantifying the contribution of each source of risk to aggregated risk. The gradient allocation rule, also known as the Euler principle, is a prevalent rule of capital allocation under which the…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-06-28 Takaaki Koike , Cathy W. S. Chen , Edward M. H. Lin

We study the properties of Expected Shortfall from the point of view of financial risk management. This measure --- which emerges as a natural remedy in some cases where Value at Risk (VaR) is not able to distinguish portfolios which bear…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-12-02 Carlo Acerbi , Claudio Nordio , Carlo Sirtori

Emphatic temporal difference (ETD) learning (Sutton et al., 2016) is a successful method to conduct the off-policy value function evaluation with function approximation. Although ETD has been shown to converge asymptotically to a desirable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-18 Ziwei Guan , Tengyu Xu , Yingbin Liang

We introduce a novel regression framework which simultaneously models the quantile and the Expected Shortfall (ES) of a response variable given a set of covariates. This regression is based on a strictly consistent loss function for the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-08-13 Timo Dimitriadis , Sebastian Bayer

We introduce and study the main properties of a class of convex risk measures that refine Expected Shortfall by simultaneously controlling the expected losses associated with different portions of the tail distribution. The corresponding…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-08-19 Matteo Burzoni , Cosimo Munari , Ruodu Wang

We propose a new approach, termed Realized Risk Measures (RRM), to estimate Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) using high-frequency financial data. It extends the Realized Quantile (RQ) approach proposed by Dimitriadis and…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-10-21 Federico Gatta , Fabrizio Lillo , Piero Mazzarisi

Risk measures such as Expected Shortfall (ES) and Value-at-Risk (VaR) have been prominent in banking regulation and financial risk management. Motivated by practical considerations in the assessment and management of risks, including…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-05-05 Ruodu Wang , Johanna F. Ziegel

Our primary aim is to find an estimate of the expected shortfall in various situations: (1) Nonparametric situation, when the probability distribution of the incurred loss is unknown, only satisfying some general conditions. Then, following…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-26 Jana Jurečková , Jan Kalina , Jan Večeř

The joint Value at Risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) quantile regression model of Taylor (2017) is extended via incorporating a realized measure, to drive the tail risk dynamics, as a potentially more efficient driver than daily…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2018-05-23 Richard Gerlach , Chao Wang

We propose a multilevel stochastic approximation (MLSA) scheme for the computation of the value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) of a financial loss, which can only be computed via simulations conditionally on the realisation of…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-04-14 Stéphane Crépey , Noufel Frikha , Azar Louzi

In this paper, we propose considering an exact likelihood score (ELS) test for non-inferiority comparison and we derive its test-based confidence interval for the difference between two independent binomial proportions. The p-value for this…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-12 Hassan Lakkis , Andrew Lakkis

The dependency structure of credit risk parameters is a key driver for capital consumption and receives regulatory and scientific attention. The impact of parameter imperfections on the quality of expected loss (EL) in the sense of a fair,…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2013-10-03 Wolfgang Reitgruber

Expected Shortfall (ES), the average loss above a high quantile, is the current financial regulatory market risk measure. Its estimation and optimization are highly unstable against sample fluctuations and become impossible above a critical…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-05-05 Gábor Papp , Imre Kondor , Fabio Caccioli

A new risk measure, the lambda value at risk (Lambda VaR), has been recently proposed from a theoretical point of view as a generalization of the value at risk (VaR). The Lambda VaR appears attractive for its potential ability to solve…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2017-06-05 Jacopo Corbetta , Ilaria Peri

The problem of test of fit for Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) processes with unconditionally heteroscedastic errors is studied. The volatility structure is deterministic but time-varying and allows for changes that are commonly observed in…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-19 Valentin Patilea , Hamdi Raïssi