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Being able to reason about how one's behaviour can affect the behaviour of others is a core skill required of intelligent driving agents. Despite this, the state of the art struggles to meet the need of agents to discover causal links…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-03-07 Rhys Howard , Lars Kunze

Travel demand modeling has shifted from aggregated trip-based models to behavior-oriented activity-based models because daily trips are essentially driven by human activities. To analyze the sequential activity-travel decisions, deep…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-03-18 Yuebing Liang , Shenhao Wang , Jiangbo Yu , Zhan Zhao , Jinhua Zhao , Sandy Pentland

This study compares the performance of a causal and a predictive model in modeling travel mode choice in three neighborhoods in Chicago. A causal discovery algorithm and a causal inference technique were used to extract the causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-31 Rishabh Singh Chauhan , Uttara Sutradhar , Anton Rozhkov , Sybil Derrible

Transport operators have a range of intervention options available to improve or enhance their networks. Such interventions are often made in the absence of sound evidence on resulting outcomes. Cycling superhighways were promoted as a…

Applications · Statistics 2022-01-04 Prajamitra Bhuyan , Emma J. McCoy , Haojie Li , Daniel J. Graham

Long-term traffic modelling is fundamental to transport planning, but existing approaches often trade off interpretability, transferability, and predictive accuracy. Classical travel demand models provide behavioural structure but rely on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-30 Yue Li , Shujuan Chen , Akihiro Shimoda , Ying Jin

Deep neural networks are increasingly utilized in mobility prediction tasks, yet their intricate internal workings pose challenges for interpretability, especially in comprehending how various aspects of mobility behavior affect…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-08-02 Ye Hong , Yanan Xin , Simon Dirmeier , Fernando Perez-Cruz , Martin Raubal

Deep learning models are widely used in traffic forecasting and have achieved state-of-the-art prediction accuracy. However, the black-box nature of those models makes the results difficult to interpret by users. This study aims to leverage…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-16 Rushan Wang , Yanan Xin , Yatao Zhang , Fernando Perez-Cruz , Martin Raubal

Many modern robotics applications require robots to function autonomously in dynamic environments including other decision making agents, such as people or other robots. This calls for fast and scalable interactive motion planning. This…

Robotics · Computer Science 2016-10-27 A. Bordallo , F. Previtali , N. Nardelli , S. Ramamoorthy

The research questions that motivate transportation safety studies are causal in nature. Safety researchers typically use observational data to answer such questions, but often without appropriate causal inference methodology. The field of…

Applications · Statistics 2011-07-26 Vishesh Karwa , Aleksandra B. Slavković , Eric T. Donnell

A multi-modal framework to generate user intention distributions when operating a mobile vehicle is proposed in this work. The model learns from past observed trajectories and leverages traversability information derived from the visual…

Robotics · Computer Science 2022-03-17 Kavindie Katuwandeniya , Stefan H. Kiss , Lei Shi , Jaime Valls Miro

The urban intersection is a typically dynamic and complex scenario for intelligent vehicles, which exists a variety of driving behaviors and traffic participants. Accurately modelling the driver behavior at the intersection is essential for…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-07-14 Zirui Li , Chao Lu , Cheng Gong , Cheng Gong , Jinghang Li , Lianzhen Wei

Accurate trajectory prediction has long been a major challenge for autonomous driving (AD). Traditional data-driven models predominantly rely on statistical correlations, often overlooking the causal relationships that govern traffic…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-05-13 Bonan Wang , Haicheng Liao , Chengyue Wang , Bin Rao , Yanchen Guan , Guyang Yu , Jiaxun Zhang , Songning Lai , Chengzhong Xu , Zhenning Li

Human mobility data are fused with multiple travel patterns and hidden spatiotemporal patterns are extracted by integrating user, location, and time information to improve next location prediction accuracy. In existing next location…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-25 Xiaojie Yang , Zipei Fan , Hangli Ge , Takashi Michikata , Ryosuke Shibasaki , Noboru Koshizuka

We propose a nonlinear difference-in-differences method to estimate multivariate counterfactual distributions in classical treatment and control study designs with observational data. Our approach sheds a new light on existing approaches…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-11 William Torous , Florian Gunsilius , Philippe Rigollet

Over the last decades, many prognostic models based on artificial intelligence techniques have been used to provide detailed predictions in healthcare. Unfortunately, the real-world observational data used to train and validate these models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-21 Alice Bernasconi , Alessio Zanga , Peter J. F. Lucas , Marco Scutari , Fabio Stella

The theory of optimal transportation has developed into a powerful and elegant framework for comparing probability distributions, with wide-ranging applications in all areas of science. The fundamental idea of analyzing probabilities by…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-14 Florian F Gunsilius

To uncover the city's fundamental functioning mechanisms, it is important to acquire a deep understanding of complicated relationships among citizens, location, and mobility behaviors. Previous research studies have applied direct…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-03-11 Tao Feng , Yunke Zhang , Xiaochen Fan , Huandong Wang , Yong Li

This study presents a novel framework for counterfactual user behavior forecasting that combines structural causal models with transformer-based generative artificial intelligence. To model fictitious situations, the method creates causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-12 Dharmateja Priyadarshi Uddandarao , Ravi Kiran Vadlamani

Travel decisions tend to exhibit sensitivity to uncertainty and information processing constraints. These behavioural conditions can be characterized by a generative learning process. We propose a data-driven generative model version of…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-07-29 Melvin Wong , Bilal Farooq

Predicting human displacements is crucial for addressing various societal challenges, including urban design, traffic congestion, epidemic management, and migration dynamics. While predictive models like deep learning and Markov models…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2024-08-07 Sebastiano Bontorin , Simone Centellegher , Riccardo Gallotti , Luca Pappalardo , Bruno Lepri , Massimiliano Luca
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