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We propose a framework for the description of the effects of vaccinations on the spreading of an epidemic disease. Different vaccines can be dosed, each providing different immunization times and immunization levels. Differences due to…
During the COVID-19 pandemic, estimating the total deaths averted by vaccination has been of great public health interest. Instead of estimating total deaths averted by vaccination among both vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, some…
Understanding vaccine effects on post-infection outcomes is critical for evaluating the full value proposition of a vaccine. However, defining appropriate causal effects on such outcomes is challenging because infection is affected by…
A full Bayesian approach to the estimation of Vaccine Efficacy is presented, which is an improvement over the currently used exact method conditional on the total number of cases. As an example, we reconsider the statistical sections of the…
Pathogens usually exist in heterogeneous variants, like subtypes and strains. Quantifying treatment effects on the different variants is important for guiding prevention policies and treatment development. Here we ground analyses of…
Background: Despite lacking scientific support, vaccine hesitancy is widespread. While vaccine damage as a scientific fact is statistically highly uncommon, emerging social and technological forces have converted probable vaccine damage…
We predict vaccine efficacy with a measure of antigenic distance between influenza A(H3N2) and candidate vaccine viruses based on amino acid substitutions in the dominant epitopes. In 2016-2017, our model predicts 19% efficacy compared to…
The initial period of vaccination shows strong heterogeneity between countries' vaccinations rollout, both in the terms of the start of the vaccination process and in the dynamics of the number of people that are vaccinated. A predominant…
We investigate how a population's natural and vaccine immunity affects the competitive balance between two strains of an infectious disease with different epidemiological characteristics. Specifically, we consider the case where one strain…
We review standard mediation assumptions as they apply to identifying antibody effects in a randomized vaccine trial and propose new study designs to allow identification of an estimand that was previously unidentifiable. For these…
The response of the immune system to different vaccination patterns is studied with a simple model. It is argued that the history and characteristics of the pattern defines very different secondary immune responses in the case of infection.…
The test-negative design (TND) has become a standard approach to evaluate vaccine effectiveness against the risk of acquiring infectious diseases in real-world settings, such as Influenza, Rotavirus, Dengue fever, and more recently…
Vaccination policies play a central role in public health interventions and models are often used to assess the effectiveness of these policies. Many vaccines are leaky, in which case the observed vaccine effectiveness depends on the force…
We introduce a new measure of antigenic distance between influenza A vaccine and circulating strains. The measure correlates well with efficacies of the H3N2 influenza A component of the annual vaccine between 1971 and 2004, as do results…
The rapid outbreak of bird flu challenges the outcome of effective vaccine for the upcoming years. The recent research established different norms to eliminate flu pandemics. This can be made possible with skilled experimental analyses and…
A mathematical model of COVID-19 with minimal compartments is developed. The model is simple enough to fit data on confirmed cases, estimate the hidden infection figure and incorporate the effect of vaccination. With the effect of the new…
The test-negative design (TND) is widely used to evaluate vaccine effectiveness in real-world settings. In a TND study, individuals with similar symptoms who seek care are tested, and effectiveness is estimated by comparing vaccination…
Incorporating vaccination into mathematical models appears deceptively simple: models integrate vaccine-derived protections, such as reduced susceptibility to infection, using parameters informed by empirical estimates of vaccine efficacy…
This study aims to statistically assess the effectiveness of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2. It is indispensable to investigate the relationship between Covid-19 deadliness and vaccination in order to study the impact of vaccine in…
Traditional measures of vaccine efficacy (VE) are inherently asymmetric, constrained above by $1$ but unbounded below. As a result, VE estimates and corresponding confidence intervals can extend far below zero, making interpretation…