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Early assessments of the spreading rate of COVID-19 were subject to significant uncertainty, as expected with limited data and difficulties in case ascertainment, but more reliable inferences can now be made. Here, we estimate from European…

One of the most important tools available to limit the spread and impact of infectious diseases is vaccination. It is therefore important to understand what factors determine people's vaccination decisions. To this end, previous behavioural…

Background: We estimate the overall quality of response to the Covid-19 pandemic in the first 18 months, using a small number of known parameters and a proposed method that is reasonably robust to the uncertainties in the data. Methods: The…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-05-09 Thilakam Venkatapathi , Murugesan Venkatapathi

A growing number of methods aim to assess the challenging question of treatment effect variation in observational studies. This special section of "Observational Studies" reports the results of a workshop conducted at the 2018 Atlantic…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-17 Carlos Carvalho , Avi Feller , Jared Murray , Spencer Woody , David Yeager

We study the identification and estimation of long-term treatment effects when both experimental and observational data are available. Since the long-term outcome is observed only after a long delay, it is not measured in the experimental…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-04 Guido Imbens , Nathan Kallus , Xiaojie Mao , Yuhao Wang

Most vaccines require multiple doses, the first to induce recognition and antibody production and subsequent doses to boost the primary response and achieve optimal protection. We show that properly prioritizing the administration of first…

Since the recent introduction of several viable vaccines for SARS-CoV-2, vaccination uptake has become the key factor that will determine our success in containing the COVID-19 pandemic. We argue that game theory and social network models…

In today's media landscape, propaganda distribution has a significant impact on society. It sows confusion, undermines democratic processes, and leads to increasingly difficult decision-making for news readers. We investigate the lasting…

Researchers are often interested in treatment effects on outcomes that are only defined conditional on a post-treatment event status. For example, in a study of the effect of different cancer treatments on quality of life at end of…

The aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic saw more severe outcomes for racial minority groups and economically-deprived communities. Such disparities can be explained by several factors, including unequal access to healthcare, as well as the…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2024-03-12 Nicola Neophytou , Afaf Taïk , Golnoosh Farnadi

Experimenters often collect baseline data to study heterogeneity. I propose the first valid confidence intervals for the VCATE, the treatment effect variance explained by observables. Conventional approaches yield incorrect coverage when…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-06-07 Alejandro Sanchez-Becerra

Heterogeneity of population is a key factor in modeling the transmission of disease among the population and has huge impact on the outcome of the transmission. In order to investigate the decision making process in the heterogeneous mixing…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-03-01 Fan Bai , Qianyu Chen , Yizhuo Xu

Background: To prevent future outbreaks of COVID-19, Australia is pursuing a mass-vaccination approach in which a targeted group of the population comprising healthcare workers, aged-care residents and other individuals at increased risk of…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-08-09 Cameron Zachreson , Sheryl L. Chang , Oliver M. Cliff , Mikhail Prokopenko

The decision of whether or not to vaccinate is a complex one. It involves the contribution both to a social good -- herd immunity -- and to one's own well being. It is informed by social influence, personal experience, education, and mass…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-02-15 Soya Miyoshi , Marko Jusup , Petter Holme

Immune events such as infection, vaccination, and a combination of the two result in distinct time-dependent antibody responses in affected individuals. These responses and event prevalences combine non-trivially to govern antibody levels…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-04-16 Prajakta Bedekar , Rayanne A. Luke , Anthony J. Kearsley

In the context of individual-level causal inference, we study the problem of predicting whether someone will respond or not to a treatment based on their features and past examples of features, treatment indicator (e.g., drug/no drug), and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-04 Nathan Kallus

Motivated by COVID-19 vaccine allocation, where vulnerable subpopulations are simultaneously more impacted in terms of health and more disadvantaged in terms of access to the vaccine, we formalize and study the problem of resource…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-02-02 Kenya Andrews , Mesrob Ohannessian , Tanya Berger-Wolf

In this paper we introduce a compartmental epidemic model describing the transmission of the COVID-19 disease in presence of non-mandatory vaccination. The model takes into account the hesitancy and refusal of vaccination. To this aim, we…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-06-23 Bruno Buonomo , Rossella Della Marca , Alberto d'Onofrio , Maria Groppi

In this paper we analyze the impact of vaccinations on spread of the COVID-19 virus for different age groups. More specifically we examine the deployment of vaccines in the Nordic countries in a comparative analysis where we analyze factors…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-09-24 Anna Sigridur Islind , María Óskarsdóttir , Corentin Cot , Giacomo Cacciapaglia , Francesco Sannino

It is argued that a weak value of an observable is a robust property of a single pre- and post-selected quantum system rather than a statistical property. During an infinitesimal time a system with a given weak value affects other systems…

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