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Deep learning has achieved impressive performance on many tasks in recent years. However, it has been found that it is still not enough for deep neural networks to provide only point estimates. For high-risk tasks, we need to assess the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-28 Yuandu Lai , Yucheng Shi , Yahong Han , Yunfeng Shao , Meiyu Qi , Bingshuai Li

Neural network classifiers trained with cross-entropy loss achieve strong predictive accuracy but lack the capability to provide inherent predictive uncertainty estimates, thus requiring external techniques to obtain these estimates. In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-08 Courtney Franzen , Farhad Pourkamali-Anaraki

This paper introduces a novel approach to quantify the uncertainties in fault diagnosis of motor drives using Bayesian neural networks (BNN). Conventional data-driven approaches used for fault diagnosis often rely on point-estimate neural…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-12-16 Subham Sahoo , Huai Wang , Frede Blaabjerg

Uncertainty estimation for machine learning models is of high importance in many scenarios such as constructing the confidence intervals for model predictions and detection of out-of-distribution or adversarially generated points. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-06 Kirill Fedyanin , Evgenii Tsymbalov , Maxim Panov

Estimating how uncertain an AI system is in its predictions is important to improve the safety of such systems. Uncertainty in predictive can result from uncertainty in model parameters, irreducible data uncertainty and uncertainty due to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-12-03 Andrey Malinin , Mark Gales

We present a critical survey on the consistency of uncertainty quantification used in deep learning and highlight partial uncertainty coverage and many inconsistencies. We then provide a comprehensive and statistically consistent framework…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-14 Peter Jan van Leeuwen , J. Christine Chiu , C. Kevin Yang

Uncertainty-quantification methods are applied to estimate the confidence of deep-neural-networks classifiers over their predictions. However, most widely used methods are known to be overconfident. We address this problem by developing an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-19 Luigi Sbailò , Luca M. Ghiringhelli

Unlearnable Examples (UEs) serve as a data protection strategy that generates imperceptible perturbations to mislead models into learning spurious correlations instead of underlying semantics. In this paper, we uncover a fundamental…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-06 Zhihao Li , Gezheng Xu , Jiale Cai , Ruiyi Fang , Di Wu , Qicheng Lao , Charles Ling , Boyu Wang

Bootstrapping has been a primary tool for ensemble and uncertainty quantification in machine learning and statistics. However, due to its nature of multiple training and resampling, bootstrapping deep neural networks is computationally…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-14 Minsuk Shin , Hyungjoo Cho , Hyun-seok Min , Sungbin Lim

Learning against label noise is a vital topic to guarantee a reliable performance for deep neural networks. Recent research usually refers to dynamic noise modeling with model output probabilities and loss values, and then separates clean…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-07-13 Yingsong Huang , Bing Bai , Shengwei Zhao , Kun Bai , Fei Wang

Improving calibration performance in deep learning (DL) classification models is important when planning the use of DL in a decision-support setting. In such a scenario, a confident wrong prediction could lead to a lack of trust and/or harm…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-13 Tareen Dawood , Bram Ruijsink , Reza Razavi , Andrew P. King , Esther Puyol-Antón

Uncertainty estimation aims to evaluate the confidence of a trained deep neural network. However, existing uncertainty estimation approaches rely on low-dimensional distributional assumptions and thus suffer from the high dimensionality of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-26 Tsai Hor Chan , Kin Wai Lau , Jiajun Shen , Guosheng Yin , Lequan Yu

Uncertainty-aware machine learners, such as Bayesian neural networks, output a quantification of uncertainty instead of a point prediction. We provide uncertainty-aware learners with a principled framework to characterize, and identify ways…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-01 Sabina J. Sloman , Michele Caprio , Samuel Kaski

Estimating statistical uncertainties allows autonomous agents to communicate their confidence during task execution and is important for applications in safety-critical domains such as autonomous driving. In this work, we present the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-09 Yuchen Cui , David Isele , Scott Niekum , Kikuo Fujimura

A Bayesian treatment of deep learning allows for the computation of uncertainties associated with the predictions of deep neural networks. We show how the concept of Errors-in-Variables can be used in Bayesian deep regression to also…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-15 Jörg Martin , Clemens Elster

Real-world data contains aleatoric uncertainty - irreducible noise arising from imperfect measurements or from incomplete knowledge about the data generation process. Mean-variance estimation networks can learn this type of uncertainty but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Jiaxiang Yi , Miguel A. Bessa

Deep neural networks, despite their high accuracy, often exhibit poor confidence calibration, limiting their reliability in high-stakes applications. Current ad-hoc confidence calibration methods attempt to fix this during training but face…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-15 Sandra Gómez-Gálvez , Tobias Olenyi , Gillian Dobbie , Katerina Taškova

This paper proposes a paradigm of uncertainty injection for training deep learning model to solve robust optimization problems. The majority of existing studies on deep learning focus on the model learning capability, while assuming the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-28 Wei Cui , Wei Yu

Deep learning models have demonstrated remarkable success in various fields, including seismology. However, one major challenge in deep learning is the presence of mislabeled examples. Additionally, accurately estimating model uncertainty…

Calibration error is commonly adopted for evaluating the quality of uncertainty estimators in deep neural networks. In this paper, we argue that such a metric is highly beneficial for training predictive models, even when we do not…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-01 Jayaraman J. Thiagarajan , Bindya Venkatesh , Deepta Rajan
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