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Aleatoric uncertainty for Errors-in-Variables models in deep regression

Machine Learning 2023-05-15 v3 Artificial Intelligence Machine Learning

Abstract

A Bayesian treatment of deep learning allows for the computation of uncertainties associated with the predictions of deep neural networks. We show how the concept of Errors-in-Variables can be used in Bayesian deep regression to also account for the uncertainty associated with the input of the employed neural network. The presented approach thereby exploits a relevant, but generally overlooked, source of uncertainty and yields a decomposition of the predictive uncertainty into an aleatoric and epistemic part that is more complete and, in many cases, more consistent from a statistical perspective. We discuss the approach along various simulated and real examples and observe that using an Errors-in-Variables model leads to an increase in the uncertainty while preserving the prediction performance of models without Errors-in-Variables. For examples with known regression function we observe that this ground truth is substantially better covered by the Errors-in-Variables model, indicating that the presented approach leads to a more reliable uncertainty estimation.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2105.09095,
  title  = {Aleatoric uncertainty for Errors-in-Variables models in deep regression},
  author = {Jörg Martin and Clemens Elster},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2105.09095},
  year   = {2023}
}

Comments

9 pages

R2 v1 2026-06-24T02:15:39.455Z