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Recent approaches in causal inference have proposed estimating average causal effects that are local to some subpopulation, often for reasons of efficiency. These inferential targets are sometimes data-adaptive, in that they are dependent…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-02-08 Peter M. Aronow

We investigate large-sample properties of treatment effect estimators under unknown interference in randomized experiments. The inferential target is a generalization of the average treatment effect estimand that marginalizes over potential…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-10-25 Fredrik Sävje , Peter M. Aronow , Michael G. Hudgens

Unobserved heterogeneous treatment effects have been emphasized in the recent policy evaluation literature (see e.g., Heckman and Vytlacil, 2005). This paper proposes a nonparametric test for unobserved heterogeneous treatment effects in a…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-08-17 Yu-Chin Hsu , Ta-Cheng Huang , Haiqing Xu

This paper reviews and compares methods to assess treatment effect heterogeneity in the context of parametric regression models. These methods include the standard likelihood ratio tests, bootstrap likelihood ratio tests, and Goeman's…

Applications · Statistics 2026-02-06 Yao Chen , Sophie Sun , Konstantinos Sechidis , Cong Zhang , Torsten Hothorn , Björn Bornkamp

Randomization, as a key technique in clinical trials, can eliminate sources of bias and produce comparable treatment groups. In randomized experiments, the treatment effect is a parameter of general interest. Researchers have explored the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-05 Fuyi Tu , Wei Ma , Hanzhong Liu

This paper considers the practically important case of nonparametrically estimating heterogeneous average treatment effects that vary with a limited number of discrete and continuous covariates in a selection-on-observables framework where…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-08-26 Michael Zimmert , Michael Lechner

Existing sequential generalized estimating equation methodology for longitudinal and group-correlated data focuses on narrow hypotheses concerning treatment efficacy and often makes modeling assumptions that impede the desirable robustness…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-16 Nathan T. Provost , Abdus S. Wahed

Randomized trials are considered the gold standard for making informed decisions in medicine, yet they often lack generalizability to the patient populations in clinical practice. Observational studies, on the other hand, cover a broader…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-14 Piersilvio De Bartolomeis , Javier Abad , Konstantin Donhauser , Fanny Yang

This paper considers the problem of inference in cluster randomized experiments when cluster sizes are non-ignorable. Here, by a cluster randomized experiment, we mean one in which treatment is assigned at the cluster level. By…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-04-11 Federico Bugni , Ivan Canay , Azeem Shaikh , Max Tabord-Meehan

We consider inference from non-random samples in data-rich settings where high-dimensional auxiliary information is available both in the sample and the target population, with survey inference being a special case. We propose a regularized…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-13 Yutao Liu , Andrew Gelman , Qixuan Chen

In this work, we proposed a novel inferential procedure assisted by machine learning based adjustment for randomized control trials. The method was developed under the Rosenbaum's framework of exact tests in randomized experiments with…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-23 Han Yu , Alan D. Hutson , Xiaoyi Ma

Randomized experiments are considered the gold standard for estimating causal effects. However, out of the set of possible randomized assignments, some may be likely to produce poor effect estimates and misleading conclusions. Restricted…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-28 Maggie Wang , René F. Kizilcec , Michael Baiocchi

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects is central to data-driven decision-making, yet industrial applications often face a fundamental tension between limited randomized controlled trial (RCT) budgets and abundant but biased…

We construct exact confidence intervals for the average treatment effect in randomized experiments with binary outcomes using sequences of randomization tests. Our approach does not rely on large-sample approximations and is valid for all…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-25 Peng Zhang

Certifiable, adaptive uncertainty estimates for unknown quantities are an essential ingredient of sequential decision-making algorithms. Standard approaches rely on problem-dependent concentration results and are limited to a specific…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-09 Nicolas Emmenegger , Mojmír Mutný , Andreas Krause

In many medical and business applications, researchers are interested in estimating individualized treatment effects using data from a randomized experiment. For example in medical applications, doctors learn the treatment effects from…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-01 Kevin Wu Han , Han Wu

When estimating treatment effects, the golden standard is to conduct a randomized experiment and then contrast outcomes associated with the treatment group and the control group. However, in many cases, randomized experiments are either…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-08 Kevin Han

We study average treatment effect (ATE) estimation under complete randomization with many covariates in a design-based, finite-population framework. In randomized experiments, regression adjustment can improve precision of estimators using…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-12 Dogyoon Song

Constructing confidence intervals (CIs) for the average treatment effect (ATE) from patient records is crucial to assess the effectiveness and safety of drugs. However, patient records typically come from different hospitals, thus raising…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-16 Yuxin Wang , Maresa Schröder , Dennis Frauen , Jonas Schweisthal , Konstantin Hess , Stefan Feuerriegel

A treatment may be appropriate for some group (the ``sick" group) on whom it has a positive effect, but it can also have a detrimental effect on subjects from another group (the ``healthy" group). In a non-targeted trial both sick and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-23 Georgios Mavroudeas , Malik Magdon-Ismail , Kristin P. Bennett , Jason Kuruzovich