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Consider a movie recommendation system where apart from the ratings information, side information such as user's age or movie's genre is also available. Unlike standard matrix completion, in this setting one should be able to predict…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-06-05 Prateek Jain , Inderjit S. Dhillon

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free and model-agnostic uncertainty-quantification method that provides finite-sample prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage. In this work, for the first time, we apply conformal-prediction to…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2026-02-02 Habib Yousefi Dezdarani , Ryan Curry , Alexandros Gezerlis

Conformal prediction is a popular method to construct prediction intervals with marginal coverage guarantees from black-box machine learning models. In applications with potentially high-impact events, such as flooding or financial crises,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-02 Olivier C. Pasche , Henry Lam , Sebastian Engelke

Conformal prediction has emerged as a widely used framework for constructing valid prediction sets in classification and regression tasks. In this work, we extend the split conformal prediction framework to hierarchical classification,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-13 Thomas Mortier , Alireza Javanmardi , Yusuf Sale , Eyke Hüllermeier , Willem Waegeman

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free uncertainty estimation framework that constructs prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true answer with a user-specified probability. Intuitively, the size of the prediction set encodes a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-18 Alvaro H. C. Correia , Fabio Valerio Massoli , Christos Louizos , Arash Behboodi

When a machine learning model is deployed, its predictions can alter its environment, as better informed agents strategize to suit their own interests. With such alterations in mind, existing approaches to uncertainty quantification break.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-05 Daniel Csillag , Claudio José Struchiner , Guilherme Tegoni Goedert

We propose a framework for verifiable and compositional reinforcement learning (RL) in which a collection of RL subsystems, each of which learns to accomplish a separate subtask, are composed to achieve an overall task. The framework…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-09-13 Cyrus Neary , Aryaman Singh Samyal , Christos Verginis , Murat Cubuktepe , Ufuk Topcu

Recommender systems are important for providing personalized services to users, but the vast amount of collected user data has raised concerns about privacy (e.g., sensitive data), security (e.g., malicious data) and utility (e.g., toxic…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2023-08-01 Jiahao Liu , Dongsheng Li , Hansu Gu , Tun Lu , Jiongran Wu , Peng Zhang , Li Shang , Ning Gu

Conformal predictions make it possible to define reliable and robust learning algorithms. But they are essentially a method for evaluating whether an algorithm is good enough to be used in practice. To define a reliable learning framework…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-18 Alberto Carlevaro , Teodoro Alamo Cantarero , Fabrizio Dabbene , Maurizio Mongelli

In this PhD thesis, we propose a novel framework for uncertainty quantification in machine learning, which is based on proper scores. Uncertainty quantification is an important cornerstone for trustworthy and reliable machine learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-26 Sebastian G. Gruber

We introduce new inference procedures for counterfactual and synthetic control methods for policy evaluation. We recast the causal inference problem as a counterfactual prediction and a structural breaks testing problem. This allows us to…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-01-26 Victor Chernozhukov , Kaspar Wüthrich , Yinchu Zhu

The deployment of safe and trustworthy machine learning systems, and particularly complex black box neural networks, in real-world applications requires reliable and certified guarantees on their performance. The conformal prediction…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-06-14 Paul Melki , Lionel Bombrun , Boubacar Diallo , Jérôme Dias , Jean-Pierre da Costa

An open question in \emph{Imprecise Probabilistic Machine Learning} is how to empirically derive a credal region (i.e., a closed and convex family of probabilities on the output space) from the available data, without any prior knowledge or…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-29 Michele Caprio , David Stutz , Shuo Li , Arnaud Doucet

Conformal prediction provides a powerful framework for constructing distribution-free prediction regions with finite-sample coverage guarantees. While extensively studied in univariate settings, its extension to multi-output problems…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-04 Victor Dheur , Matteo Fontana , Yorick Estievenart , Naomi Desobry , Souhaib Ben Taieb

In classification of incomplete pattern, the missing values can either play a crucial role in the class determination, or have only little influence (or eventually none) on the classification results according to the context. We propose a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-02-09 Zhun-Ga Liu , Quan Pan , Jean Dezert , Arnaud Martin

Current experimental scientists have been increasingly relying on simulation-based inference (SBI) to invert complex non-linear models with intractable likelihoods. However, posterior approximations obtained with SBI are often…

Multiple datasets containing different types of features may be available for a given task. For instance, users' profiles can be used to group users for recommendation systems. In addition, a model can also use users' historical behaviors…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-05-10 Weixiang Shao , Xiaoxiao Shi , Philip S. Yu

Low-rank matrix completion concerns the problem of estimating unobserved entries in a matrix using a sparse set of observed entries. We consider the non-uniform setting where the observed entries are sampled with highly varying…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-04 Xumei Xi , Christina Lee Yu , Yudong Chen

As deep learning predictive models become an integral part of a large spectrum of precision agricultural systems, a barrier to the adoption of such automated solutions is the lack of user trust in these highly complex, opaque and uncertain…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-08-30 Paul Melki , Lionel Bombrun , Boubacar Diallo , Jérôme Dias , Jean-Pierre da Costa

Reliable semantic segmentation is essential for clinical decision making, yet deep models rarely provide explicit statistical guarantees on their errors. We introduce a simple post-hoc framework that constructs confidence masks with…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-11-20 Luca Mossina , Corentin Friedrich