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We consider a borderline case: the central limit theorem for a strictly stationary time series with infinite variance but a Gaussian limit. In the iid case a well-known sufficient condition for this central limit theorem is regular…
Veraverbeke's (1977) theorem relates the tail of the distribution of the supremum of a random walk with negative drift to the tail of the distribution of its increments, or equivalently, the probability that a centered random walk with…
We use the framework of multivariate regular variation to analyse the extremal behaviour of preferential attachment models. To this end, we follow a directed linear preferential attachment model for a random, heavy-tailed number of steps in…
A fixed-design residual bootstrap method is proposed for the two-step estimator of Francq and Zako\"ian (2015) associated with the conditional Value-at-Risk. The bootstrap's consistency is proven for a general class of volatility models and…
Consider a random sample in the max-domain of attraction of a multivariate extreme value distribution such that the dependence structure of the attractor belongs to a parametric model. A new estimator for the unknown parameter is defined as…
In this paper, I present a completely new type of upper and lower bounds on the right-tail probabilities of continuous random variables with unbounded support and with semi-bounded support from the left. The presented upper and lower…
We extend the duality between exponential integrals and relative entropy to a variational formula for exponential integrals involving the Renyi divergence. This formula characterizes the dependence of risk-sensitive functionals and related…
Let $X_1,...,X_n$ be $n$ independent unbounded real random variables which have common, roughly speaking, light-tailed type distribution. Denote by $S_1^n$ their sum and by $\pi^{a_n}$ the tilted density of $X_1$, where $a_n…
Risk assessment for rare events is essential for understanding systemic stability in complex systems. As rare events are typically highly correlated, it is important to study heavy-tailed multivariate distributions of the relevant…
In this paper, we study finite-time ruin probabilities for the compound Markov binomial risk model - a discrete-time model where claim sizes are modulated by a finite-state ergodic Markov chain. In the classic (non-modulated) case, the risk…
We consider a random variable X satisfying almost-sure conditions involving G:=<DX,-DL^{-1}X> where DX is X's Malliavin derivative and L^{-1} is the inverse Ornstein-Uhlenbeck operator. A lower- (resp. upper-) bound condition on G is proved…
This paper presents a novel semiparametric method to study the effects of extreme events on binary outcomes and subsequently forecast future outcomes. Our approach, based on Bayes' theorem and regularly varying (RV) functions, facilitates a…
We examine random variables in the power law/regularly varying class with stochastic tail exponent, the exponent $\alpha$ having its own distribution. We show the effect of stochasticity of $\alpha$ on the expectation and higher moments of…
This paper investigates the use of extreme value theory for modelling the distribution of demand-net-of-wind for capacity adequacy assessment. Extreme value theory approaches are well-established and mathematically justified methods for…
We introduce a new actuarial tail-shape index, the $\theta$-index, based on a probability equal level relationship between Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall. The index is defined at each tail probability level as the parameter value for…
In recent years research on credit risk modelling has mainly focused on default probabilities. Recovery rates are usually modelled independently, quite often they are even assumed constant. Then, however, the structural connection between…
In the world of modern financial theory, portfolio construction has traditionally operated under at least one of two central assumptions: the constraints are derived from a utility function and/or the multivariate probability distribution…
Recent developments in statistical regression methodology shift away from pure mean regression towards distributional regression models. One important strand thereof is that of conditional transformation models (CTMs). CTMs infer the entire…
We prove a version of a general transfer theorem for random sequences with independent random indexes in the double array limit setting under relaxed conditions. We also prove its partial inverse providing the necessary and sufficient…
Sums of independent, bounded random variables concentrate around their expectation approximately as well a Gaussian of the same variance. Well known results of this form include the Bernstein, Hoeffding, and Chernoff inequalities and many…