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Constant-specified and exponential concentration inequalities play an essential role in the finite-sample theory of machine learning and high-dimensional statistics area. We obtain sharper and constants-specified concentration inequalities…
Recent financial disasters emphasised the need to investigate the consequence associated with the tail co-movements among institutions; episodes of contagion are frequently observed and increase the probability of large losses affecting…
In this paper, we propose the discrete time Compound Beta-Binomial Risk Model with by-claims, delayed by-claims and randomized dividends. We then analyze the Gerber-Shiu function for the cases where the dividend threshold $d=0$ and $d>0$…
We consider the problem of bounding large deviations for non-i.i.d. random variables that are allowed to have arbitrary dependencies. Previous works typically assumed a specific dependence structure, namely the existence of independent…
This paper investigates the asymptotic behavior of higher-order conditional tail moments, which quantify the contribution of individual losses in the event of systemic collapse. The study is conducted within a framework comprising two…
Many novel notions of "risk" (e.g., CVaR, tilted risk, DRO risk) have been proposed and studied, but these risks are all at least as sensitive as the mean to loss tails on the upside, and tend to ignore deviations on the downside. We study…
This paper introduces a flexible framework for the estimation of the conditional tail index of heavy tailed distributions. In this framework, the tail index is computed from an auxiliary linear regression model that facilitates estimation…
Regular variation is often used as the starting point for modeling multivariate heavy-tailed data. A random vector is regularly varying if and only if its radial part $R$ is regularly varying and is asymptotically independent of the angular…
We propose two types of Quantile Graphical Models (QGMs) --- Conditional Independence Quantile Graphical Models (CIQGMs) and Prediction Quantile Graphical Models (PQGMs). CIQGMs characterize the conditional independence of distributions by…
The policy gradient theorem (Sutton et al., 2000) prescribes the usage of a cumulative discounted state distribution under the target policy to approximate the gradient. Most algorithms based on this theorem, in practice, break this…
Motivated by applications to prediction and forecasting, we suggest methods for approximating the conditional distribution function of a random variable Y given a dependent random d-vector X. The idea is to estimate not the distribution of…
In this paper, we consider the state-dependent reflecting random walk on a half-strip. We provide explicit criteria for (positive) recurrence, and an explicit expression for the stationary distribution. As a consequence, the light-tailed…
Motivated by a question of Krzysztof Oleszkiewicz we study a notion of weak tail domination of random vectors. We show that if the dominating random variable is sufficiently regular weak tail domination implies strong tail domination. In…
The global financial crisis of 2007-2009 highlighted the crucial role systemic risk plays in ensuring stability of financial markets. Accurate assessment of systemic risk would enable regulators to introduce suitable policies to mitigate…
Robust Bayesian linear regression is a classical but essential statistical tool. Although novel robustness properties of posterior distributions have been proved recently under a certain class of error distributions, their sufficient…
One of the most widely used properties of the multivariate Gaussian distribution, besides its tail behavior, is the fact that conditional means are linear and that conditional variances are constant. We here show that this property is also…
We consider the Bayesian analysis of models in which the unknown distribution of the outcomes is specified up to a set of conditional moment restrictions. The nonparametric exponentially tilted empirical likelihood function is constructed…
On the framework of the Linear Farmer's Model, we approach the indeterminacy of agents' behaviour by associating with each agent an unconditional probability for her to be active at each time step. We show that Pareto tailed returns can…
Expectile, as the minimizer of an asymmetric quadratic loss function, is a coherent risk measure and is helpful to use more information about the distribution of the considered risk. In this paper, we propose a new risk measure by replacing…
We prove that a planar random walk with bounded increments and mean zero which is conditioned to stay in a cone converges weakly to the corresponding Brownian meander if and only if the tail distribution of the exit time from the cone is…